Core Viewpoint - The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total investment expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous period. This indicates a clear high-growth trend in China's power grid investments, leading to unprecedented market expectations for the "power grid cycle" [2]. Investment Dimensions - The power system can be divided into generation, transmission, transformation, distribution, and consumption. The investment in power grid projects can be categorized into three dimensions: trunk network/super high voltage, smart grid/digitalization, and distribution and consumption equipment [10]. - Trunk network/super high voltage investments focus on primary equipment for physical transmission channels, characterized by large single amounts and long construction cycles, typically requiring 2-2.5 years from approval to operation [10]. - Smart grid/digitalization investments pertain to secondary equipment, which includes control systems and automation, with shorter delivery cycles of 0.5-1 year and more stable revenue driven by both new line construction and upgrades of existing networks [11]. - Distribution and consumption side investments target distributed energy access and end-users, characterized by fragmented orders and fast turnover, with profits recognized in line with annual grid construction progress [11]. Company Analysis - Group A companies, such as Pinggao Electric and China XD Electric, exhibit strong cyclical performance linked to super high voltage construction, with profits closely tied to specific project completion timelines [13]. - Group B, represented by State Grid NARI, shows strong certainty and anti-cyclicality in its performance, driven by the increasing complexity of the power grid and technological premiums rather than direct dependence on grid investment fluctuations [15]. - Group C focuses on the end of the power grid, emphasizing access and consumption, with companies like Samsung Medical experiencing accelerated profit growth due to the shift from urbanization-driven to consumption-driven investments, particularly in response to the rapid growth of distributed solar energy [17]. New Power System Cycle - The current "14th Five-Year Plan" power grid cycle differs from previous ones, with its driving factors shifting from "scale expansion" to "reconstruction of the power grid under a new power system." The main challenge has evolved to system stability and capacity for renewable energy integration [20]. - It is anticipated that a significant portion of the 4 trillion yuan investment will be allocated to addressing the randomness and volatility of renewable energy sources. Key factors influencing the industry include cost fluctuations of raw materials, technological upgrades, investment policies, and supply-demand dynamics [20].

1月15日，国家电网发布消息称，"十五五"期间固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，相较于"十四五"期间大幅提升约40%。这一投资规模对应年均投资额约 8000亿元，显著高于2025年国家电网约6500亿元的历史高点。 这是一个极不寻常的增长比例，但同时也是一个非常明确的增长趋势。这背后到底反映了什么？"电网周期"是否真正到来？这种变化的核心驱动又是什 么呢？ 不同步的增长 0 1 首先需要明确的是，国家电网的固定资产投资以电网投资为主，总量层面的"固定资产投资"会略大于"电网投资"。同时，我国的电网系统包括国家电 网、南方电网和蒙西电网，国家电网占据了主导地位。因此，国家电网固定资产投资这一数据，基本可以代表全国性的电网投资规模。 再往上一层，电力工程的投资一般可以分为电源工程和电网工程，也就是发电侧和输配电侧。国家能源局每月发布全国电力工业统计数据，这是观察全 国电源工程与电网工程投资完成额的重要窗口。 "十四五"以来，由于新能源装机爆发，电源与电网投资再次出现不成比例的增长。尤其是在2024年，电源与电网的投资占比几乎接近2：1。补贴取消、 消纳困难、接网红区增多、负电价频繁等一系列问题开始出现，这中间的故事我 ...