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申万宏源:上调中国宏桥盈利预测 维持“增持”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 05:43
Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, expecting net profits of 245, 255, and 265 billion RMB respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 123.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 810.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [2]. - The growth in performance was primarily driven by increased sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products, along with a decrease in electricity costs due to falling coal prices [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - Sales volume and prices for key products increased in the first half of 2025: - Aluminum alloy products (electrolytic aluminum) saw a sales volume of 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%, with an average selling price of 17,853 RMB/ton, up 2.7%, and a gross margin of 25.2%, up 0.6 percentage points [3]. - Alumina products had a sales volume of 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%, with an average selling price of 3,243 RMB/ton, up 10.3%, and a gross margin of 28.8%, up 3.4 percentage points [3]. - Aluminum alloy processing products achieved a sales volume of 392,000 tons, up 3.5%, with an average selling price of 20,615 RMB/ton, up 2.9%, and a gross margin of 23.3%, up 2.3 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Capacity and Investment - The company increased its stake in Yunnan Hongtai to 100%, enhancing its equity capacity by 48.4 thousand tons, which is expected to significantly boost net profits [4]. - The company announced a new share buyback plan of at least 3 billion HKD, demonstrating confidence in its future performance [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong integrated advantage in electrolytic aluminum production, with a leading position in overseas bauxite resources and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [6]. - The anticipated increase in aluminum prices due to a new supply-demand balance, along with the company's enhanced equity capacity, supports the upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6].