Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international production, consumption, import data, and price trends. It also mentions the expected supply shortage in the 25/26 global sugar season and the anticipated decline in sugar yield and increase in production costs in Guangxi for the 25/26 season [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.05 cents/pound, down 0.09; the mainstream spot price is 5930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5562 yuan/ton, down 37 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 16; the 15 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 9; the mainstream spot basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 37 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **International**: Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil exported 3.59 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1]. - **Domestic**: CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of May 25, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.7%. As of July 25, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [1][2]. International Market - ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. - As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. - ISMA/NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the 24/25 season. - OCSB data showed that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].