Report Title - The sugar market is fluctuating weakly, with a game between supply pressure and cost support - Sugar Weekly Report from October 27th to October 31st, 2025 [1] Report Author - Author: Yang Jiangtao [2] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [2] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [2] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is currently in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (Brazil's increased output + China's new sugar - making season) and cost support (production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the futures price is repeatedly testing support in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will be determined by the progress of the new sugar - making season and policy signals [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The closing price of the 11 - sugar continuous contract decreased by 3.61% from 14.97 to 14.43. The closing price of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract increased by 0.68% from 5446 to 5483. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% from 234 to 187. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% from 8771 to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the proportion of bearish views on Zhengzhou sugar is 50% [6] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 Main Sugar - Importing Countries of China - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.54% from 4040 to 3816, the in - quota import profit increased by 10.59% from 1851 to 2047, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.67% from 5154 to 4862, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 35.82% from 737 to 1001. For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.43% from 4124 to 3900, the in - quota import profit increased by 11.04% from 1767 to 1962, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.53% from 5263 to 4972, and the out - quota import profit increased by 41.88% from 628 to 891 [31] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the expected import volume in October is set to decrease, and there is support from news related to syrup and premixed powder. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, leading to short - term low - level operation of sugar prices [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5499 yuan/ton, with a 16 - unit increase; the main contract position is 372791 lots, up 21 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7462, down 68; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 52742 lots, up 5106 lots. The total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3990 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; within the quota for Thai sugar, it is 4049 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5052 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 5129 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5695 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5720 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 5740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44098 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550000 tons, an increase of 5.49%; the Brazilian monthly sugar export volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 1512 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.24%, an increase of 0.45%; for put options, it is 7.24%, an increase of 0.44%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.41%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the Chengdu Sugar Conference on November 1 - 2, the estimated sugar production for the 25/26 crushing season was announced. The national production is expected to increase to 1170 million tons, with 680 million tons in Guangxi, 260 million tons in Yunnan, 60 million tons in Guangdong, 70 million tons in Inner Mongolia, and 75 million tons in Xinjiang. In the first half of October 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 3403.7 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and produced 248.4 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year. As of October 16 in the 25/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.249 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sugar market is in a weak and volatile stage. The core contradiction lies in the peak supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production during the new domestic sugar - making season, which suppresses prices. The seasonal weakening of demand further intensifies the downward pressure. In the short term, cost support and supply suppression coexist. It is expected that the sugar futures price will maintain a weak oscillation in the range of 5450 - 5550 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Price Changes**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 15.87, up 2.65% from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5478, up 0.31%. Spot prices in various regions declined, with the Nanning price down 1.03%, the Liuzhou price down 1.20%, etc. [5] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 23.58% to 282 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.68% to 9464, indicating a reduction in physical delivery pressure. [5] - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: The number of long positions increased by 6.06%, the number of short positions decreased by 1.26%, and the net long positions increased by 18.13%. [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The proportions of bullish, bearish, and neutral views on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 20%, 45%, and 35% respectively. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Import Cost and Profit**: For both Brazilian and Thai sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased slightly, while the out - quota profit space narrowed significantly. For example, the out - quota profit of Thai sugar decreased by 17.35% to 381 yuan/ton. [30] 3.3 International Market Fundamentals - The report lists aspects such as Brazil's available sugar volume, cane crushing volume, sugar production, ethanol production, sugar import and export, and international raw sugar premium and shipping costs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content. Relevant topics include sections from 3.1 to 3.6 [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar market is under supply pressure, with the increasing production pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the pressure from the beet harvest. The supply side remains bearish, and the demand shows a slowdown, leading to a weak and downward - trending sugar price [5]. - The domestic sugar market is in a downward trend, fluctuating around the 5500 mark. Trading volume is not significantly enlarged, and the basis is relatively strong. At the end of the season, domestic sugar stocks are gradually being cleared, which supports the futures price. Before the National Day, funds are mainly flowing out, and the decline of futures sugar slows down [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display 1.1 Spot Prices and Basis in Production Areas - Spot prices in production areas such as Guangxi Nanning, Yunnan Kunming, and Yingkou are in a downward - trending and fluctuating state. The basis in these areas is also expected to weaken, with the basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou showing a decline this week compared to last week [2][4]. 1.2 Inter - month Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou sugar is in a short - term weak and fluctuating state, with a slight rebound this week [11]. 1.3 Domestic - Foreign Spreads - The import cost is relatively low. Although the import profit within the quota has shrunk, it is still relatively large [15]. 2. Overview of Key Market Data 2.1 International Market Key Data - **Brazil**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the peak season, with a high cane - to - sugar ratio. However, attention should be paid to the sugar content in cane and the cane crushing volume. The sugar export in Brazil has slightly slowed down. The production in Thailand and India has not started yet, but the expected increase in production will bring pressure to the market [20][26][29]. 2.2 Domestic Market Key Data - **Production and Consumption**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to slightly increase. The production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar have turned bearish, with the inventory decreasing but the speed slowing down. The import volume of sugar has increased, and the import volume in August increased month - on - month. The import of syrup/pre - mixed powder in August decreased month - on - month [5][33][36][38][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either. Attention should be paid to the seasonal demand in the downstream market, which shows a situation of "peak season not prosperous" during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [42][45].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is accelerating, with expectations of increased yields from Thailand and India, while domestic inventory remains low but is expected to rise due to imports and new sugar supply from northern regions [3][4]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In the second week of September 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar output reached 1.5317 million tons, a significant decrease from 3.8795 million tons in September of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 153,200 tons, down 17.09% year-on-year [1]. - An institutional survey indicates that sugar production in Brazil's key central-south region is expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons in the latter half of August, with cane crushing expected to rise by 9.5% year-on-year to 49.5 million tons [4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Conditions - The current spot price for sugar in Guangxi is 5,765 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan per ton, while major processing factories are quoting prices between 5,950 and 6,090 yuan per ton, with only Guangdong Jinling raising prices by 10 yuan [1]. - As of September 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,325, a decrease of 280 from the previous trading day [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The domestic sugar inventory remains relatively low, but there is an expectation of increased imports before October, alongside the gradual supply of new sugar from northern regions as they begin crushing [3]. - Despite lower sales data in August compared to previous years, the cumulative sales of sugar reached 9.9998 million tons by the end of August 2025, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 89.59%, up 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound space of white sugar is limited, and the downward trend is maintained. There are still many negative factors such as potential new import licenses and unexpected syrup imports, and it is advisable to roll short [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import was 1.7778 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53,900 tons or 3.12%. In July, the total import of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68,600 tons. The price is expected to go down, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar [8] - **Demand**: The stocking for the Double Festival is almost over, the demand release is less than expected, and the supply pressure is emerging. The price is expected to go down [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. There are rumors of a second batch of import licenses, which will still put pressure on processed sugar later. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the registered warehouse receipts of white sugar were 11,599, with 6 valid forecasts, totaling 11,605, compared with 12,482 last week. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Basis**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi is 5,725 yuan/ton, the quotation of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5,830 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan Sugar Group is 5,730 - 5,780 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processed sugar mills is 5,950 - 6,080 yuan/ton. The downstream procurement is mainly on a need - to - buy basis. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Profit**: The cost of out - of - quota imports from Brazil is about 5,459 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in cost and a slight decline in profit. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Macro**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and inflation will remain high in the short term. The Fed will also adjust its economic and inflation expectations. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Strategy**: There is price support around 5,500. Although there will be a rebound, the space is limited, and there will be a decline later. It is advisable to short at high and cover at low [8][9] 02 This Week's Sugar Market News - The ISO predicts a supply gap of only 23,100 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, much smaller than the 487,900 - ton gap in the 2024/25 season. The global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season [14] - In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.596 million tons or 8.17%. The sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 497,000 tons or 15.96% [14] - As of the week of September 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 84, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons or 0.71% [15] 03 Weekly White Sugar Data - **Foreign**: In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil increased year - on - year, but the cumulative crushing volume from the 2025/26 season to the first half of August decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 1.12 million tons year - on - year [20][23] - **Domestic**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 505,200 tons or 7.34%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 74.11%, a year - on - year slowdown of 2.54 percentage points. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.52 percentage points [26][30][33] - **Imports**: In July 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The out - of - quota import cost increased this week [41][45] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the total number of white sugar warehouse receipts decreased compared with last week [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [4] - During the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period, with diversified supply and intensified competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar, the sugar market is expected to remain range - bound, but risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations should be watched [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Spot Prices - In Guangxi Nanning warehouse, the spot price per ton of sugar is 5980 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 416 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Kunming, the spot price is 5845 yuan, down 5 yuan, with a basis of 381 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 21 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Dali, the spot price is 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 286 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Shandong Rizhao, the spot price is 6030 yuan, down 20 yuan, with a basis of 366 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 6 yuan [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Prices - SR09 futures price is 5564 yuan, down 26 yuan, and the spread between SR09 and SR01 is 31 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - SR01 futures price is 5533 yuan, down 29 yuan [4] International Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the Chinese yuan is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee to the Chinese yuan is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar futures is 16.05, unchanged; the price of London white sugar futures is 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil futures is 67.39, unchanged [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international production, consumption, import data, and price trends. It also mentions the expected supply shortage in the 25/26 global sugar season and the anticipated decline in sugar yield and increase in production costs in Guangxi for the 25/26 season [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.05 cents/pound, down 0.09; the mainstream spot price is 5930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5562 yuan/ton, down 37 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 16; the 15 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 9; the mainstream spot basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 37 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **International**: Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil exported 3.59 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1]. - **Domestic**: CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of May 25, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.7%. As of July 25, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [1][2]. International Market - ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. - As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. - ISMA/NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the 24/25 season. - OCSB data showed that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market has shown a strong trend recently, trading on the low carry - over inventory of domestic sugar and the expected reduction in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. The market is less responsive to the increase in imported sugar and syrup in July. The downward pressure on the market is insufficient, and it may trade on the reduction in production in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production in India and Thailand in the future. In the short term, SR2601 shows strong momentum and may have a significant - scale market trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Domestic Market - Spot quotes: The platform quote of intermediaries in Nanning is 6,000 yuan/ton, and the quote of intermediaries in Kunming is 5,770 - 5,940 yuan/ton. In July, China imported 744,300 tons of sugar, a month - on - month increase of 75.29% and a year - on - year increase of 76.44%, with 644,400 tons from Brazil. In July, China imported 159,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons but a continued month - on - month increase, reaching a new high for the year [3]. International Market - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures has maintained a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. In Brazil, due to continuous drought, the sugar content of sugarcane is at a historically low level, and the sugar - making ratio remains high because the ethanol - to - sugar price ratio is low. In India, although local sources expect a significant increase in production, meteorological monitoring shows that the cumulative rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu is low, and the final production may be lower than expected [4]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread Futures - As of August 25, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of various sugar futures contracts are provided, such as SR01 at 5,670 yuan with a 0% change, SR03 at 5,648 yuan with a 0% change, etc. The price spreads between different contracts are also given, like SR01 - 05 at 39 yuan with no change [5]. Spot - As of August 22, 2025, the spot prices and price changes in different regions are presented, including Nanning at 5,960 yuan with no change, and the price spreads between regions, such as the Nanning - Liuzhou spread at 10 yuan with no change [6]. Basis - As of August 22, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning, Kunming and different futures contracts are provided, for example, the Nanning - SR01 basis is 300 yuan with a decrease of 16 yuan [7]. Other Information - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat export data shows that in the first week of August, 1.094 million tons of sugar were exported, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data shows that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the overseas market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou white sugar futures oscillates and rebounds, with the center of gravity slightly moving up. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5700 [5][9]. - The long - term factors include positive aspects such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the supply surplus in the new year [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: As of the end of July in the current sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, and the basis is 354 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Fundamental Data**: - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts 1.53 million tons, StoneX has a revised surplus of 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9]. - According to the rural department, in the 25/26 season, the sugar - cane planting area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, the sugar - cane yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Position Data**: The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still leaning towards bearish [5].