Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian sugar has not been crushed, and the international market news is in a vacuum period. The raw sugar price lacks more upward drivers and is expected to remain volatile [2] - In the domestic market, the sugar beet crushing in the north has ended, and the production is basically in line with expectations. The cane sugar production exceeds expectations, and the domestic production is expected to be around 12 million tons. The current sugar market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and there is certain pressure on the price [2] - The price of raw sugar in the external market has fallen, and the domestic sugar price mainly follows the decline [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the main contract position is 269,186 lots, down 34,897 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,862, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is -120,878 lots, up 1,845 lots [2] - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 0, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,364 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,470 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The total sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2297 million tons, up 212,200 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,055 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,109 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -121 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -51 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 240,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 520,000 tons, up 240,000 tons [2] - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 1.9923 million tons, up 441,700 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 697,500 tons, up 165,500 tons [2] - The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 5.6513 million tons, up 1.6223 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1.4934 million tons, up 509,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 3.5904 million tons, up 2.2874 million tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks is 13.421 million tons, up 2.964 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 13.42%, down 1.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 13.41%, down 1.19 percentage points [2] - The 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 10.87%, up 0.12 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 9.24%, down 0.81 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of March 24, 2026, the non-commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 95,804 lots, a decrease of 111,951 lots from the previous week. The long position was 205,205 lots, an increase of 12,896 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 301,009 lots, a decrease of 99,055 lots from the previous week [2] - The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down 0.21 cents or 1.33%, at 15.55 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - International sugar market: ICE raw sugar rose this week due to concerns about supply prospects. High crude oil prices are expected to significantly reduce the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil, which will boost the sugar market. In the next season, the global sugar supply may be tight, supporting the upward trend of international sugar prices. Although there is a large accumulation of production in Thailand, the pressure is gradually being released. The overall production estimate of India has declined compared to before, and the production estimate of Thailand has also been revised downwards [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The peak period of domestic sugar supply has been reached, with a year - on - year increase putting pressure on the market. The import of out - of - quota processed sugar has not yet increased significantly. The domestic sugar price still faces pressure to rise following the international sugar price. In the new week, attention should be paid to the changes in the internal - external price difference and the final output of domestic sugar [4]. - Futures and spot: The basis is expected to weaken [4]. - Trading strategies: Adopt an oscillating rebound approach for single - side trading; continue to hold previously sold out - of - the - money call options, and hold recently sold out - of - the - money put options at low prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and International Sugar Price Summary - ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 1441 to 1563, a week - on - week increase of 8.47%, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger [2]. - ICE white sugar main contract rose from 415.9 to 450.6, a week - on - week increase of 8.34%, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger [2]. - Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased from 5447 to 5439, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger but slightly weaker following the external market [2]. - Brazilian processed sugar costs (50% and 15%) and Thai processed sugar costs (50% and 15%) all increased, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger [2]. - Spot prices in Guangxi Nanning, Yunnan Kunming, and Hebei Caofeidian all decreased, with an expected trend of oscillation [2]. - Import processing sugar profits (both out - of - quota and in - quota) and import disk profits (both out - of - quota and in - quota) all decreased, with a trend of being under pressure [2]. 3.2 Sugar Valuation This Week - The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou all decreased, with an expected trend of oscillating weaker [3]. - The spreads of Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 remained unchanged, with an expected trend of oscillating weaker [3]. - The delivery costs of Guangxi, Yunnan, and Yingkou processed sugar all decreased slightly, with an expected trend of small fluctuations [3]. 3.3 Key Data and Strategies in the Sugar Market This Week - Key data: The sales - to - production ratios of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar decreased, with negative impacts. The industrial inventories of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar increased. The import volume of sugar decreased, but the import was still strong. The sugar production in Thailand and India increased, while the sugar production in Brazil decreased as it entered the harvest stage [4]. - Strategies and views: As mentioned in the core views, including international and domestic sugar market analysis, futures - spot situation, and trading strategies [4]. 3.4 Domestic Sugar Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2022/23 to 2025/26, the sown area, yield per unit, and sugar production are expected to increase. The import volume will remain relatively stable, and the consumption will increase slightly. The balance change will shift from a deficit to a surplus [5]. 3.5 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking - Spot prices and basis: Spot prices rebounded under pressure and then declined, and the basis weakened. The supply of spot goods is large, and the post - holiday restocking demand has increased. The low - buying support has led to a rebound in futures, but the basis is still in a weakening trend. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm and price changes of new sugar in the main producing areas of Guangxi and Yunnan [9][11]. - Inter - month spreads: The 5 - 7 spread oscillated lower [12]. - Internal - external spreads: The import cost rebounded, and the out - of - quota import processing sugar disk profit shrank rapidly. The in - quota import profit is relatively large, over a thousand yuan [16][18]. 3.6 Market Key Data Overview - International market: - Brazil: The sugar production decreased month - on - month, the sugar - cane ratio decreased sharply, the cumulative sugar production in the current season increased slightly year - on - year, and the production in the next season may decrease. The sugar export in February increased, and the Brazilian real exchange rate depreciated [22][28]. - Thailand and India: The production has started, with expected production increases putting pressure on the market. Thailand's sugar - pressing has accelerated, and attention should be paid to the production changes [32]. - Domestic market: - China: The sugar production has increased, and the consumption is expected to slightly decrease. The sales - to - production ratio in February was poor, the inventory accumulation expanded, the import volume of sugar increased, the import of syrup/pre - mixed powder is expected to decrease due to stricter policy control, the downstream demand is not bad but not excellent, and the downstream market has insufficient support [36][40][42][46][50][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term due to factors such as high international oil prices and the downward adjustment of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the short term, influenced by high international sugar prices, high oil prices, and potential tightening of import policies, despite pressure from increased domestic production and large imports in January and February [4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is also expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the short term [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Options**: Sell put options in the short term [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - **Supply - demand Pattern Changes**: Multiple institutions have lowered the sugar production expectations for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons. For example, the ISO has lowered the 2025/26 global sugar production forecast by 480,000 tons, and Czarnikow has lowered it by 2.3 million tons. Datagro predicts a supply shortage of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season and an expansion of the shortage to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season. StoneX has significantly reduced the 2025/26 global sugar surplus forecast by 70% [9]. - **Brazil**: - **End of the Pressing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugar production in the central - southern region decreased by 36.31% year - on - year, with a decrease in the sugar - making ratio and an increase in ethanol production [10]. - **Lower - than - expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production increased by only 0.86% year - on - year, and the expected increase in production is only 300,000 - 400,000 tons, lower than the market expectation of 1 million tons [13]. - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the current futures price of raw sugar. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the new pressing season starting in April will be low [18]. - **Inventory and Exports**: As of February 15, the inventory in the central - southern region was at a low level in recent years. In February, the sugar export volume increased by 22% year - on - year, but the cumulative export volume from April 2025 to February 2026 decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [23]. - **Thailand**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons, an increase of 960,000 tons year - on - year. As of March 15, the cumulative sugar production increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The pressing progress has accelerated recently, but the increase in the later stage is expected to be small [26]. - **India**: The ISMA predicts that the net sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% year - on - year, but the forecast has been reduced by 160,000 tons compared with the previous one. The AISTA predicts that the sugar production may reach 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% reduction from the previous forecast [27]. - **Domestic Market** - **Production**: As of February 28, in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 515,800 tons year - on - year, and the sugar production in Yunnan increased by 93,100 tons year - on - year [34]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of February 28, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 891,000 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased by 375,200 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales decreased by 25,000 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased by 118,000 tons year - on - year [37]. - **Imports**: In January and February 2026, the cumulative sugar import volume increased by 440,900 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder from October 2025 to February 2026 decreased by 305,400 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of overseas sugarcane as of the end of February increased by 201,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - **Import Profits**: The import cost of sugar has increased recently, and the import profit has decreased. The profit of Brazilian sugar with additional tariffs is 220 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 320 yuan/ton [44]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No new content other than the above is provided in the text.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain strongly bullish due to high international oil prices and downward revisions of sugar production forecasts by major producing countries [9] - Domestic sugar prices are expected to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - range oscillation. In the short term, they are expected to be slightly bullish [9] - For trading strategies, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is also expected to be bullish. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell put options [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,501 with a gain of 18 (0.33%), SR01 closed at 5,626 with a gain of 23 (0.41%), and SR05 closed at 5,472 with a gain of 25 (0.46%) [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan are 5500, 5335, and 5810 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged and some showing declines [3] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread is - 154 with a change of 2, SR09 - SR05 spread is 29 with a change of - 7, and SR09 - SR01 spread is - 125 with a change of - 5 [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand and their spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market are provided [3] 2. Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India had 173 remaining sugar - crushing plants, a decrease of 27 year - on - year, and cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons year - on - year. In Brazil, as of the week of March 11, the number of ships waiting to load sugar increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased. The EU plans to suspend part of the duty - free sugar import policy for at least one year. Brazil's estimated sugarcane planting area and output in 2026 are expected to decline [5][6][8] - **Logical Analysis**: The sugar production increases in India and Thailand in this sugar - crushing season are likely to be lower than market expectations. The ISO has revised down the global sugar production and supply surplus forecasts. Most global institutions are also revising down the 2026/27 global sugar production forecast. In the domestic market, although the sugar production is likely to increase, considering the low sugar price and possible tightening of import policies, the sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term and be slightly bullish in the short - term [9] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell put options [10][11][12] 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts including monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, basis, and inter - contract spreads of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][19][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - India increased its export quota by 500,000 tons to 2 million tons, but the sugar production forecast was lowered, providing short - term support to the raw sugar market. The net sugar production in the 2025 - 26 sugar season in India is expected to be 29.3 million tons, a 12% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, the current national sugar production and sales rate has slowed down year - on - year. There are expectations of increased sugar production in Yunnan and Guangxi. Considering the delayed sugarcane pressing time this year, the peak is expected to be in February. Short - term cost support and the low - valued state of sugar prices strengthen the upward driving force of sugar prices [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,345 yuan/ton, a 21 - unit increase. The main contract position is 469,973 lots, a decrease of 3,366 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14,461 sheets, unchanged. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 93,406 lots, a decrease of 5,281 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,488 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,964 yuan/ton, a 16 - unit decrease; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 3,905 yuan/ton, a 16 - unit decrease. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,018 yuan/ton, a 22 - unit decrease; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,941 yuan/ton, a 21 - unit decrease. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,200 yuan/ton, a 5 - unit increase; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons, an increase of 66.58 million tons. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 98.41 million tons, an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar export volume is 2.0175 million tons, a decrease of 0.8955 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,358 yuan/ton, a 30 - unit increase; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,417 yuan/ton, a 30 - unit increase. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, a 36 - unit increase; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 381 yuan/ton, a 35 - unit increase. The monthly import volume of sugar is 580,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons; the cumulative import volume is 4.92 million tons, an increase of 580,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 3.5904 million tons, an increase of 2.2874 million tons. The monthly output of soft drinks is 13.421 million tons, an increase of 2.964 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 10.15%, a 1.9 - unit increase. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 10.14%, a 1.89 - unit increase. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.07%, a 0.24 - unit increase; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.38%, a 0.12 - unit increase [2] Industry News - As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 246,123 lots, a decrease of 7,469 lots from the previous week. The long position was 183,446 lots, an increase of 11,465 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 429,569 lots, an increase of 3,996 lots from the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the current incomplete statistics, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, with a large difference in the current sugar extraction rate; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market estimates that the sugar production in Guangxi in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of the production and sales data for December, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5257 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6; the main contract position is 422,565 lots, a month - on - month increase of 6,906; the number of warehouse receipts is 6,005, a month - on - month increase of 823; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 65,309 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 4,563; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,131 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,177 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,330 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 60; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 5.24 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.49; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 593.35; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 237.4; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90.3; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,226 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,180 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 48; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45; the monthly import volume of sugar is 44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 434 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 130.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,045.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.69%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 11.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of December 23, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 149,541 lots, a decrease of 8,108 lots from the previous week. The long position was 161,284 lots, an increase of 2,204 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 310,825 lots, a decrease of 5,904 lots from the previous week. The Rabobank said that it is expected that there will be a surplus of about 2.6 million tons of sugar in the global market in the 2025/26 season, mainly driven by the recovery of sugar production in India, which had a poor harvest last year. Sugar - cane in major producing countries is being crushed successively, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in India. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 1.0005 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 166,700 tons. As of December 15, the cumulative sugar production from Indian sugar - cane was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, it is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not show significant improvement. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction remains bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, increasing the difficulty of long - short games and reducing the probability of a trending market. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the international raw sugar price rebounded. As of November 28, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.21 cents per pound, up 0.79 cents per pound from the previous month, a 5.48% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 month spread was 0.51 cents per pound, up 0.12 cents per pound from the previous month; the London white sugar 3 - 5 month spread was $5.2 per ton, up $2.8 per ton from the previous month; the raw - white spread of the March contract was $100 per ton, up $8 per ton from the previous month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined slightly in November. As of November 28, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, down 83 yuan per ton from the previous month, a 1.51% decrease. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 230 yuan per ton from the previous month; the basis was 50 yuan per ton, down 147 yuan per ton from the previous month; the 1 - 5 spread was 73 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous month; the out - of - quota spot import profit was 420 yuan per ton, down 439 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News**: As of December 4, 2025/26, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 21 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 175,500 tons. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. Sugar production was 983,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: As mentioned above, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts cover various time periods and contracts from 2021 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the spread trends in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - **Sugar Imports**: Charts display the monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 2025 [44]. - **National Sales**: Charts present the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [49]. - **National Industrial Inventory**: Charts show the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses [52]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - **Indian Production**: Charts present the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 [62]. - **Thai Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 [65]. - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: Charts display the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil from 2022 to 2025 and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and international sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall direction is bearish. However, as domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall [9]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the external market, the raw sugar price rebounded this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.12 cents per pound, up 0.35 cents per pound from the previous week, a 2.37% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated, at 0.47 cents per pound, down 0.02 cents per pound from the previous week. The London white sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated, at $3.8 per ton, down $1.8 per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated, at $100 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, up 47 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 0.88% increase. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, at 50 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated, at 73 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan per ton from the previous week. The out - of - quota spot import profit was 573 yuan per ton, down 63 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry News**: As of November 27, 2025, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 36 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 150,000 tons, 316,000 tons less than the same period last year. According to the latest forecast of the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season by consulting firm StoneX, the global supply will have a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the largest surplus since the 2017/18 season. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year, reaching 1.08 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: It is currently estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries in the new sugar - crushing season will increase, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view remains bearish. However, since domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. The strategy is to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see, and then short on rebounds [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: The recommended strategy is to short on rallies with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1. The recommended period is before the first quarter of 2026. The core driving logic is the large pressure of import supply and the expectation of increased production in the new sugar - crushing season. The recommendation level is 3, and it was first proposed on August 16, 2025 [11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [42]. - **Sugar Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [45][47]. - **National Sales**: The report shows the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [50]. - **National Industrial Inventory**: It presents the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses through charts [53]. 3.4. International Market Situation - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [58][60]. - **Production in India**: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [63]. - **Production in Thailand**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [66]. - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: It presents the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports through charts [69].

Report Title - The sugar market is fluctuating weakly, with a game between supply pressure and cost support - Sugar Weekly Report from October 27th to October 31st, 2025 [1] Report Author - Author: Yang Jiangtao [2] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [2] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [2] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is currently in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (Brazil's increased output + China's new sugar - making season) and cost support (production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the futures price is repeatedly testing support in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will be determined by the progress of the new sugar - making season and policy signals [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The closing price of the 11 - sugar continuous contract decreased by 3.61% from 14.97 to 14.43. The closing price of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract increased by 0.68% from 5446 to 5483. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% from 234 to 187. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% from 8771 to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the proportion of bearish views on Zhengzhou sugar is 50% [6] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 Main Sugar - Importing Countries of China - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.54% from 4040 to 3816, the in - quota import profit increased by 10.59% from 1851 to 2047, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.67% from 5154 to 4862, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 35.82% from 737 to 1001. For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.43% from 4124 to 3900, the in - quota import profit increased by 11.04% from 1767 to 1962, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.53% from 5263 to 4972, and the out - quota import profit increased by 41.88% from 628 to 891 [31] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the expected import volume in October is set to decrease, and there is support from news related to syrup and premixed powder. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, leading to short - term low - level operation of sugar prices [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5499 yuan/ton, with a 16 - unit increase; the main contract position is 372791 lots, up 21 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7462, down 68; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 52742 lots, up 5106 lots. The total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3990 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; within the quota for Thai sugar, it is 4049 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5052 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 5129 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5695 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5720 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 5740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44098 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550000 tons, an increase of 5.49%; the Brazilian monthly sugar export volume is 324.58 million tons, a decrease of 49.82 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 1512 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.24%, an increase of 0.45%; for put options, it is 7.24%, an increase of 0.44%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.41%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the Chengdu Sugar Conference on November 1 - 2, the estimated sugar production for the 25/26 crushing season was announced. The national production is expected to increase to 1170 million tons, with 680 million tons in Guangxi, 260 million tons in Yunnan, 60 million tons in Guangdong, 70 million tons in Inner Mongolia, and 75 million tons in Xinjiang. In the first half of October 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 3403.7 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and produced 248.4 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year. As of October 16 in the 25/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.249 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].