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白糖周报:白糖市场承压下行,新糖上市与供应宽松主导盘面-20251208
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 09:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The sugar market is expected to remain weak under multiple supply pressures, and the main contract may continue to test the support around 5,200 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core contradiction lies in the imbalance between the supply increase caused by the concentrated listing of new domestic and foreign sugar and the weak downstream demand. The accelerated domestic crushing progress and the optimistic production expectations of major international producers have jointly pressured the market, leading to a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, with funds leaving the market to wait and see, and the market struggling to find effective support in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.8, down 2.70% from last Friday; the main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5,303 yuan/ton, down 1.80%. Spot prices in major domestic producing areas generally declined, with Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming down 1.65%, 1.65%, and 1.84% respectively. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 17.50% to 47 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183. Market sentiment showed that the proportion of those bullish, bearish, and neutral on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 10%, 55%, and 35% respectively [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The data has not been updated, and the market is concerned about the inventory accumulation progress after the listing of new sugar [3]. - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: The import profit margin has expanded. The processing profits of Thai and Brazilian sugar within the quota increased by 1.66% and 2.14% week - on - week respectively, and the profits outside the quota increased even more (7.47% and 8.68%) [3]. - **China's Major Sugar Importing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The import processing cost decreased by 1% - 2% week - on - week. For Brazil, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.58% to 3,987 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.63% to 5,085 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 2.14% to 1,812 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 8.68% to 714 yuan/ton. For Thailand, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.37% to 4,027 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.40% to 5,137 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 1.66% to 1,772 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 7.47% to 662 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Quantity**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs**: Not elaborated in the provided content.