Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Domestic Sugar Prices Plummet, International Sugar Prices Weaken [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the crushing phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The short - term trading range of US sugar is expected to move down [3]. - Domestically, sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixes, high production costs, and the price approaching the out - of - quota cost line, there is some support for the price. The sugar price is trending down and may remain weak in the short term [3]. - For trading strategies: in the unilateral market, pay attention to whether the previous low of foreign sugar can be effectively broken. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak in the short term, but be cautious with short positions as domestic support policies may emerge. For arbitrage, go long on January contracts and short on May contracts. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International market: Brazilian sugar is in the crushing phase, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The short - term trading range of US sugar is expected to move down [3]. - Domestic market: Sugar mills are starting to crush, increasing supply and sales pressure. But tightened imports, high costs, and the price near the out - of - quota cost line provide support [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to whether the previous low of foreign sugar can be broken. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak in the short term, but be cautious with short positions due to possible support policies [4]. - Arbitrage: Long January contracts and short May contracts [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4] 3.2 Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - The 2025/26 sugar surplus is expected to decrease. The ISO predicts a 1.8177 - billion - ton production (up 3.15% year - on - year) and a 1.8014 - billion - ton consumption (up 0.6% year - on - year), with a 1.63 - million - ton surplus.嘉利高 estimates a larger surplus of 7.2 million tons [6]. 2.2 Brazil - Sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be at a high level, with an estimate of 45.02 million tons by Conab [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region dropped significantly, while ethanol production increased. The sugar production was 983,000 tons, up 8.69% year - on - year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 2.09% year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports declined. In November, exports were 3.3023 million tons, down 2.59% year - on - year. As of November in the 2025/26 season, cumulative exports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [21]. 2.3 Thailand - The new 25/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in sugar production of about 1 million tons, and exports are also expected to increase by 1 million tons [26]. 2.4 India - In the 25/26 season, sugar production is increasing. As of December 15, 2025, the sugar production reached 7.825 million tons, up 27.69% year - on - year [32]. 3.3 Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Domestic Sugar Mills - In Guangxi, as of December 17 - 18, 69 sugar mills have started crushing, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 572,000 tons. The mainstream quotation of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5,270 - 5,380 yuan/ton [36]. - In Yunnan, as of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills have started crushing. The cumulative sugar production was 44,800 tons, and the sales volume was 32,200 tons [36]. 3.2 Import Data - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.3416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49% [44]. - In October 2025, the import of syrup and premixes decreased. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import decreased by 963,600 tons year - on - year [44]. - The actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in November was 243,500 tons, and the expected arrival in December was 232,400 tons [44]