Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the production increase in major global sugar - producing areas is still being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly due to the reduced sugar production expectations in Brazil and India. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - grinding and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - Domestically, in the short term, sugar mills are gradually starting production, increasing supply and sales pressure, with a weak fundamental situation. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support for the futures price. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the long - term, due to the currently low foreign sugar prices, the cost of future priced sugar will be low, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the sugar price, but the impact space is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,421, up 16 (0.30%); SR01 closed at 5,512, up 34 (0.62%); SR05 closed at 5,433, up 22 (0.41%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also showed different changes [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc. are provided. The prices in Liuzhou, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an remained unchanged, while the price in Kunming decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis in different regions ranges from 118 to 608 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 is - 79, down 12; the spread of SR09 - SR05 is - 12, down 6; the spread of SR09 - SR01 is - 91, down 18 [6]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price is 3994 yuan/ton, and the quota - out price is 5073 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the quota - in price is 4050 yuan/ton, and the quota - out price is 5145 yuan/ton [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information** - As of November 13, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year, with a planned daily production capacity of 13,200 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons compared to the same period last year. Another sugar mill is expected to start production next week. - The French Ministry of Agriculture has lowered the forecast of sugar beet production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to 33.7 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous forecast, but still 3.5% higher than the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. - On November 13, 2025, the Indonesian Minister of Agriculture stated that the country plans to achieve self - sufficiency in white sugar by 2026, supported by an investment of 22.2 billion US dollars in downstream plantations, animal husbandry, and horticulture [8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis** - International: Global major sugar - producing areas are still experiencing increased production. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly due to reduced sugar production expectations in Brazil and India. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - grinding and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season will be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons after deducting the 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production. The Indian central government has allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. - Domestic: In the short term, sugar mills are gradually starting production, increasing supply and sales pressure, with a weak fundamental situation. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support for the futures price. In the long - term, due to the currently low foreign sugar prices, the cost of future priced sugar will be low, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the sugar price, but the impact space is relatively limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: The international sugar price is in a fluctuating adjustment market. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to operate within a range, selling high and buying low. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [12][15] Third Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the monthly inventory and cumulative sales - to - production ratio of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming sugar, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contract months [13][17][21][27][28][30]