2025 年 12 月 15 日 政策托底 ---2026 年白糖期货年度行情展望 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z00001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 报告导读： 2026 年，我们认为全球食糖市场供需基本面偏空，玉米乙醇拉低估值，纽约原糖价格 偏弱运行为主。国内食糖市场供应短缺量收窄，配额外进口窗口深度打开，我们倾向于认 为政策托底，国内市场定价锚定国内生产成本。市场长期围绕常规进口总量和节奏预期展 开交易。25/26 榨季，预计广西白糖现货价格波动区间为 5200-5800 元/吨。 风险提示：宏观、天气、国际和国内政策重大变化，导致预期发生偏差。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 三 年 度 | 1. 2025 年白糖期货走势回顾 3 | | --- | | 2. 2026 年白糖期货展望：政策托底 4 | | 2.1 国际市场：基本面偏空，玉米乙醇拉低估值 4 | | 2.1.1 国际市场由供应短缺转为供应过剩 4 | | 2.1.2 巴西产量小幅增长 4 | ...

研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | | 美分/磅） | | | 持仓量（张） | | | SR601 | 5328 | | | | -0.22% | 241501 | | | SR605 | 5225 | | | | -0.40% | 349420 | | | 美糖 03 | 14.66 | | | -0.16 | -1.08% | 454182 | | | 美糖 | 14.30 | 05 | | -0.1 ...

白糖日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究所 农产品研发报告 2025/12/10 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减量 持仓量 增减量 5,245 -20 -0.38% 4,616 506 32,159 1518 5,328 -15 -0.28% 121,672 -32633 241,501 -18964 5,225 -22 -0.42% 127,493 24852 349,420 24848 柳州 昆明 武汉 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 5480 5340 5740 5430 0 5650 5960 -25 -5 -70 0 0 -50 0 152 12 412 322 632 SR05-SR01 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR05 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR01 价差 涨跌 -103 -7 20 2 -83 -5 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 14.77 (0.19) 37.75 3998 5077 403 573.00 251 泰国进口 14.77 0.89 18.00 4046 5141 339 5 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 3 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

自糖期货日报 1 期货市场 成文日期：20251127 报告周期:日报 研究员：陈发林（从业资格号：F0262120;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015995) 今日（20251127）郑商所白糖期货主力合约（SR601）价格全天 震荡偏强运行。收盘报 5403 元/吨,较昨日涨跌 13 元/吨,涨跌幅 0.24%，成交 169362 手，持仓 377132 手，日增仓-16948 手。白糖 期货主力合约（SR601）Top20 会员多头持仓合计 264,682 手，多头 仓差-11,261 手，Top20 会员空头持仓合计 293,605 手，空头仓差- 11.422手。 数据来源：郑商所、国金期货行情软件 1.3 期权市场 1.1 合约行情 今日白糖期权共成交 64,236 手,认购成交 40,557 手,认沽成交 23,679 手，品种持仓量 343,211 手，认购持仓量 221,343 手，认沽 持仓量 121,868 手，持仓量 PCR 为 0.5506。 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量（张） | 增减 | | SR601 | | 5407 | -58 | -1.06% | 363213 | 4030 | | SR605 | | 5357 | -46 | -0.85% | 137483 | 8731 | | 美糖 | 03 | 14.75 | -0.21 | -1.40% | 480441 | -5459 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the production increase in major global sugar - producing areas is still being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly due to the reduced sugar production expectations in Brazil and India. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - grinding and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - Domestically, in the short term, sugar mills are gradually starting production, increasing supply and sales pressure, with a weak fundamental situation. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support for the futures price. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the long - term, due to the currently low foreign sugar prices, the cost of future priced sugar will be low, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the sugar price, but the impact space is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,421, up 16 (0.30%); SR01 closed at 5,512, up 34 (0.62%); SR05 closed at 5,433, up 22 (0.41%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also showed different changes [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc. are provided. The prices in Liuzhou, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an remained unchanged, while the price in Kunming decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis in different regions ranges from 118 to 608 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 is - 79, down 12; the spread of SR09 - SR05 is - 12, down 6; the spread of SR09 - SR01 is - 91, down 18 [6]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price is 3994 yuan/ton, and the quota - out price is 5073 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the quota - in price is 4050 yuan/ton, and the quota - out price is 5145 yuan/ton [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information** - As of November 13, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year, with a planned daily production capacity of 13,200 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons compared to the same period last year. Another sugar mill is expected to start production next week. - The French Ministry of Agriculture has lowered the forecast of sugar beet production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to 33.7 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous forecast, but still 3.5% higher than the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. - On November 13, 2025, the Indonesian Minister of Agriculture stated that the country plans to achieve self - sufficiency in white sugar by 2026, supported by an investment of 22.2 billion US dollars in downstream plantations, animal husbandry, and horticulture [8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis** - International: Global major sugar - producing areas are still experiencing increased production. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly due to reduced sugar production expectations in Brazil and India. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - grinding and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season will be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons after deducting the 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production. The Indian central government has allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. - Domestic: In the short term, sugar mills are gradually starting production, increasing supply and sales pressure, with a weak fundamental situation. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support for the futures price. In the long - term, due to the currently low foreign sugar prices, the cost of future priced sugar will be low, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the sugar price, but the impact space is relatively limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: The international sugar price is in a fluctuating adjustment market. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to operate within a range, selling high and buying low. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [12][15] Third Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the monthly inventory and cumulative sales - to - production ratio of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming sugar, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contract months [13][17][21][27][28][30]

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The raw sugar price continues to fluctuate, and the sugar price movement is mainly due to low - level technical fluctuations with the market lacking a clear direction. Attention should be paid to the upcoming production report of Brazil's central - southern region. The Zhengzhou sugar market is in an overall oscillating situation, with weak spot market, ample supply, and increasing supply pressure due to the listing of beet sugar. There are signs that industrial funds may shift from short to long [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.75% at 15.88 cents per pound. The main December contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed up 0.06% at $466.00 per ton. The SR601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,529 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan or 0.47%, with an increase of 2,571 positions; the SR605 contract closed at 5,510 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan or 0.40%, with an increase of 4,002 positions. The No.10 contract of US sugar closed at 15.88 cents per pound, down 0.12 cents or 0.75%, with a decrease of 18,381 positions; the No.03 contract closed at 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.18 cents or 1.08%, with an increase of 8,041 positions [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of sugar in Nanning was reported at 5,940 yuan per ton, and that in Kunming was 5,770 yuan per ton [8] 2. Industry News - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), in August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, slightly lower than 78.8 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024. The sugar content index (ATR) decreased by 2.9% from 148.4 kg per ton of sugarcane to 144.2 kg. From the start of the 2025/26 season until August, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 79.2 tons per hectare, compared with 86.3 tons per hectare in the previous season. The cumulative ATR was 129.7 kg per ton of sugarcane, compared with 133.2 kg in the same period last year. A survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in the important central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August was expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons, the sugar content per kilogram of sugarcane was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kg per ton of sugarcane, and the ethanol production, including corn ethanol, was expected to decrease by 2.5% to 2.4 billion liters [9] - **India's Sugar Situation**: An Indian government official said that India, the world's second - largest sugar producer, will have sufficient surplus sugar stocks to allow sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting on October 1. India's exports may suppress global sugar prices but support local sugar prices. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its earlier forecast of 34.9 million tons of total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][16]

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 17, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly, while the Zhengzhou sugar futures rose first and then fell. The raw sugar price rebounded after finding support at the previous low of 15.5 cents. Currently, the market lacks bullish factors, and the sugar price fluctuates mainly through low - level technical oscillations without a clear direction. The rise and fall of Zhengzhou sugar were mainly affected by the anti - involution atmosphere. After the market closed, there were no major moves from both long and short sides, but large short - position funds slightly reduced their positions, possibly due to the pressure at the high [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5,547 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with an increase of 4,016 in open interest; SR605 closed at 5,524 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.05%, with an increase of 1,766 in open interest; US Sugar 10 closed at 15.96 cents/pound, up 0.17 cents or 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,630 in open interest; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.67 cents/pound, up 0.15 cents or 0.91%, with an increase of 20,865 in open interest [7]. - **Spot Market Quotes**: The spot prices in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of sugar in Nanning was 5,940 yuan/ton, and that in Kunming was 5,770 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: In August, the sugarcane yield in the central - southern region was 77.5 tons/hectare, slightly lower than 78.8 tons/hectare in the same period in 2024. The sugar content index (ATR) decreased by 2.9% from 148.4 kg/ton of sugarcane to 144.2 kg/ton. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to August, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 79.2 tons/hectare, and the cumulative ATR was 129.7 kg/ton of sugarcane, compared with 133.2 kg/ton in the same period last year. It is estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, the sugarcane crushing volume will increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons, the sugar content per kilogram of sugarcane will decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kg/ton of sugarcane, and the ethanol production will decrease by 2.5% to 2.4 billion liters [9]. - **India**: A government official said that India will have sufficient surplus sugar inventory, allowing sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting on October 1. Indian exports may suppress global sugar prices but support local sugar prices and ensure that farmers receive guaranteed payments for sugarcane from sugar mills. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its previous forecast of the total sugar production of 34.9 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Transaction Data of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Main Contract**: The total trading volume was 249,503 lots, with an increase of 56,227 lots; the total long - position holding volume was 242,600 lots, with an increase of 3,077 lots; the total short - position holding volume was 301,703 lots, with an increase of 6,981 lots [22].