期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 01 日 白糖：巴西压榨进度加快 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.35 | -0.11 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 138 | 0 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6030 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 44 | -2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5793 | -11 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 237 | -9 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西中南部压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 月出口 336 万吨，同比增加 5%。 中国 6 月进口食糖 42 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The sugar market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength of sugar is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The raw sugar price is 17.31 cents/pound, down 0.07; the mainstream spot price is 6140 yuan/ton, down 10; the futures main - contract price is 5835 yuan/ton, up 2. The 91 spread is 136 yuan/ton, down 4; the 15 spread is 46 yuan/ton, up 11; the mainstream spot basis is 305 yuan/ton, down 12 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: The US dollar index has fallen below 100 again; Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year - on - year; the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season. Brazil exported 155 million tons in April, a 18% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of April, India produced 2569 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixes from January to April decreased significantly [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that China's sugar production will be 1115 million tons in the 24/25 season and 1120 million tons in the 25/26 season; consumption will be 1580 million tons in the 24/25 season and 1590 million tons in the 25/26 season; imports will be 500 million tons in both seasons. As of the end of April, China produced 1111 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season (+115 million tons), sold 724 million tons (+150 million tons), with a cumulative sales rate of 65.2%. China imported 174 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season as of the end of April (-138 million tons) [2] 3.4 International Market - **Supply and Production**: ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 488 million tons). As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 158 million tons (-100 million tons), with the cumulative MIX down 1.71 percentage points. As of May 15, India produced 2574 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season (-580 million tons). As of April 9, Thailand produced 1005 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season (+131 million tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is - 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a weak bearish view [4]