Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown weak performance despite a general market uptrend, with the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index declining by 0.14%, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [11][12] - The report highlights a significant decline in pig prices due to weak demand and increased supply, with expectations of seasonal price fluctuations in the second half of 2025 [5][15] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing price stabilization but remains deeply unprofitable, with a notable decrease in the number of breeding stock updated in the first half of 2025 [26][30] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index decreased by 0.14%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices increased by 1.09% and 0.69%, respectively [11] - The animal protection sector rebounded, but major sectors like pigs and chickens faced adjustments [12] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Demand and Slowing Production Growth - As of July 20, the average price of live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous week, influenced by low consumer demand and high temperatures [5][15] - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in weight gain [15] - The report anticipates a seasonal price increase during the peak consumption months of July and August, but significant pressure on prices is expected in the fourth quarter due to increased supply [15][18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Price Stabilization and Deep Losses - As of July 18, the price of white feather chicken chicks was 1.50 yuan/chick, showing a slight rebound, while the average price of meat chickens remained at 3.20 yuan/jin [26] - The first half of 2025 saw a 29.62% year-on-year decline in the number of breeding stock updated, raising concerns about future supply [26] - The industry is currently well-supplied, but uncertainties regarding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks pose risks and opportunities [26] 3. Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices slightly decreased to 6080 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 1.1% to 3935 yuan/ton [30] - Cotton prices saw a minor increase to 15366 yuan/ton, and corn prices slightly dropped to 2375 yuan/ton [30]

白鸡：4月祖代更新同比缩量近30%，5月父母代价格启动上涨【天风农业】 1、#海外引种不确定性犹存、4月祖代更新同比缩量29% ▪ 自24年12月美国俄克拉荷马州（24 年中国自美国的唯一祖代引种州）、新西兰相继爆发高致病禽流感以来，国内从美国（AA+、Ross308、 Hubbard）、新西兰（Cobb）的引种均处于暂停状态。 受此影响，#25年1-4月国内祖代更新量仅30.8万套，同比降4 白鸡：4月祖代更新同比缩量近30%，5月父母代价格启动上涨【天风农业】 1、#海外引种不确定性犹存、4月祖代更新同比缩量29% ▪ 自24年12月美国俄克拉荷马州（24 年中国自美国的唯一祖代引种州）、新西兰相继爆发高致病禽流感以来，国内从美国（AA+、Ross308、 Hubbard）、新西兰（Cobb）的引种均处于暂停状态。 受此影响，#25年1-4月国内祖代更新量仅30.8万套，同比降44%（来源：畜牧业协会、Mysteel），其中海外引种占 比不足28%，均来自法国。 ▪ #25年4月国内祖代更新量12.4万套，同比缩量29%；其中AA+/ Ross（法国）占比25.8%、利丰（法国）占比14.5%、科宝（自繁 ...