来源：市场资讯 生猪周期怎么看——华创资管多资产周报（商品篇） 上周（11月3日-7日）商品市场走势整体偏弱，南华工业品指数环比下跌0.72%。工业品品种方面，上周 涨幅排名前5的分别为纸浆、对二甲苯、尿素、铝、锌；跌幅前5的分别为沥青、铁矿石、甲醇、丁二烯 橡胶、丙烯。焦煤、碳酸锂、多晶硅等主要反内卷品种表现震荡。 纸浆方面，上周期货价格上涨3.10%，技术面上呈现一定多头走势，纸浆进口成本处于低位，企业利润 有所改善。国内主流港口纸浆库存窄幅去库，但整体仍处于相对高位，供给较为宽松。需求方面，下游 造纸开工率普遍上涨，白卡纸开始备货春节订单，库存有所累积，交投有所回暖。 沥青方面，上周期货价格下跌6.59%，日线跌幅逐渐扩大，基本面上受到国际油价回落和自身需求偏弱 的影响。随着气温降低，北方地区道路项目基本已经停工，南方地区部分项目或陆续进入赶工阶段，后 续项目需求承压。虽然供给端也有所收缩，装置开工率低位运行，但需求疲弱导致沥青期现价格均明显 下跌。 农产品方面，上周南华农产品指数再度反弹，环比上涨0.57%。分品种看，上周涨幅排名前5的农产品 期货分别为菜粕、豆粕、鸡蛋、玉米、玉米淀粉；跌幅前5的分别 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing increasing supply pressure of live pigs as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. In October 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, up 10.40% month-on-month and 9.55% year-on-year. The actual output in October exceeded the planned output by 5.70%, but the planned output for November is expected to decrease by 3.27% compared to October [3][14][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The supply pressure of live pigs is gradually accumulating as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. The average selling price in October 2025 was 11.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [3][14] - The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, indicating a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][14] Market Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the slaughter structure was 4.89%, which is lower than the same period in 2024. The stock of large pigs is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply in the future [4][18] - The winter pork consumption is expected to improve, which may drive the price difference between lean and fatty pork. However, the high inventory rate of frozen products may suppress future prices [4][19][23] Financial Performance - In October, the industry faced deepening losses, with self-breeding losses reaching 167.97 yuan per head. The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month [5][24] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with prices ranging from 10.97 to 11.87 yuan/kg, reflecting declines of 9.9% to 13.9% [6][7][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.39 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's main business saw an increase in volume but a decrease in price, leading to stable profitability. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 446.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 39.6 billion, up 4.1% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was RMB 161.5 billion, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 8.4% to RMB 16.4 billion [1][5]. - The company benefits from favorable pork costs, with the meat products segment accounting for 42% of total revenue and 96% of operating profit in Q3 [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - The meat products segment generated RMB 67.9 billion in Q3, down 0.6% year-on-year, but the sales volume increased by 0.9% due to rapid growth in emerging channels [2]. - The slaughtering business saw a significant revenue drop of 18.8% year-on-year, totaling RMB 67.5 billion, despite a 40.5% increase in slaughter volume [2]. - Other businesses, particularly pig farming, experienced a revenue increase of 100.5% year-on-year, driven by a 146% rise in pig output [3]. Profitability Outlook - The meat products segment achieved a record high profit per ton of RMB 5,186, up 6.5% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29.9% [4]. - The slaughtering business faced a 46.9% decline in operating profit, with a profit margin of only 0.6% [4]. - The company aims to maintain stable profit margins while increasing sales volume, expecting a slight decline in profit per ton in Q4 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to RMB 1.51, 1.59, and 1.64, respectively, reflecting slight increases for 2025 and 2026, but a decrease for 2027 [5]. - The target price of RMB 33.39 corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21x for 2026, based on comparable companies [5].

Market Overview - As of August 29, the average wholesale price of pork in China was 19.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.6% from the previous day, indicating a potential support for the livestock sector [1] - The average price of eggs was 7.64 yuan/kg, down 0.4%, suggesting a reduction in cost pressure for poultry farming enterprises [1] ETF and Stock Performance - As of August 29, the Livestock ETF (159867.SZ) rose by 0.91%, while the related index, the CSI Livestock (930707.CSI), increased by 0.31% [1] - Key constituent stocks showed positive performance: Haida Group rose by 2.47%, Wens Foodstuff Group by 1.56%, Muyuan Foods by 0.84%, Meihua Biological by 0.82%, and Lihua Agricultural by 2.17% [1] Industry Insights - According to Caifeng Securities, an increase in the supply of pigs has led to a decline in pork prices, while the domestic pet market continues to grow significantly [1] - The white feather chicken industry chain is facing uncertainties due to avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the U.S., which may positively impact prices in the medium to long term [1] - The average price of white feather broilers in major production areas increased by 1.81% to 7.33 yuan/kg as of August 22 [1] - Data from GF Securities indicated that agricultural product processing and animal health sectors rose by 7.0% and 1.6% respectively this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices is attributed to a combination of increased supply and reduced demand, with the industry still maintaining profitability due to lower breeding costs [1][4]. Price Trends - Pig prices have been on a downward trend for six consecutive weeks, with prices dropping from 16.57 CNY/kg in early January to 14.35 CNY/kg by early August, marking a year-on-year decline of 31.4% [1]. - Pork prices also decreased from 27.75 CNY/kg in January to 24.93 CNY/kg in August, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 22% [2]. - The price of piglets rose from 32.77 CNY/kg to 39.57 CNY/kg between January and April, but has since fallen to 33.25 CNY/kg by August, down 25.4% year-on-year [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The slaughter volume of pigs increased by 14.5% year-on-year, reaching 18.355 million heads from January to June [3]. - Pork imports from January to July totaled 62.6 thousand tons, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, although July saw a slight decline [3]. - Despite some recovery in restaurant consumption due to seasonal factors, overall demand for pork remains weak, limiting price support [3]. Profitability and Future Outlook - Breeding profitability has been maintained for 15 consecutive months, with average profits per head around 110 CNY from January to July, although this has decreased to below 100 CNY in July [4]. - The supply of pigs is expected to continue growing into the third quarter, while demand is anticipated to pick up starting in September, particularly with the upcoming seasonal consumption peaks [4]. - The government plans to initiate a new round of frozen pork storage by the end of August, which may boost market confidence [4].

Core Insights - The average trading price of lean meat pigs in China reached its lowest point of 13.67 yuan/kg on August 18, 2025, marking a significant decline in the market [1] - The pig market experienced a phase of weight reduction and increased supply in the first half of the month, leading to a price drop [1] - Northern farming groups have completed their weight reduction actions, resulting in a recovery of pig output to normal levels, which has led to an increase in prices in the northern market [1] - The southern market has paused price reductions and is now seeing price increases for pig sales [1] - It is anticipated that pig prices may see a slight increase in the coming days, but there remains a possibility of minor price declines as output may increase again towards the end of the month [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown weak performance despite a general market uptrend, with the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index declining by 0.14%, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [11][12] - The report highlights a significant decline in pig prices due to weak demand and increased supply, with expectations of seasonal price fluctuations in the second half of 2025 [5][15] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing price stabilization but remains deeply unprofitable, with a notable decrease in the number of breeding stock updated in the first half of 2025 [26][30] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index decreased by 0.14%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices increased by 1.09% and 0.69%, respectively [11] - The animal protection sector rebounded, but major sectors like pigs and chickens faced adjustments [12] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Demand and Slowing Production Growth - As of July 20, the average price of live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous week, influenced by low consumer demand and high temperatures [5][15] - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in weight gain [15] - The report anticipates a seasonal price increase during the peak consumption months of July and August, but significant pressure on prices is expected in the fourth quarter due to increased supply [15][18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Price Stabilization and Deep Losses - As of July 18, the price of white feather chicken chicks was 1.50 yuan/chick, showing a slight rebound, while the average price of meat chickens remained at 3.20 yuan/jin [26] - The first half of 2025 saw a 29.62% year-on-year decline in the number of breeding stock updated, raising concerns about future supply [26] - The industry is currently well-supplied, but uncertainties regarding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks pose risks and opportunities [26] 3. Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices slightly decreased to 6080 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 1.1% to 3935 yuan/ton [30] - Cotton prices saw a minor increase to 15366 yuan/ton, and corn prices slightly dropped to 2375 yuan/ton [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in pig prices and the overall performance of the pig farming industry, highlighting changes in supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - As of July 11, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.52%. The average price for 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.79% [3]. - The average weight of market pigs sold this week was 129.03 kg, which is an increase of 0.39 kg compared to the previous week. The national frozen product inventory rate rose to 14.31%, up by 0.08 percentage points [3]. Group 2: June Sales Report Analysis - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively sold 16.2681 million pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55%. Major companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope saw varying changes in their sales volumes [4]. - The total number of market pigs sold in June was approximately 13.5449 million, with a month-on-month increase of 3.30% and a year-on-year increase of 43.36%. The sales of piglets decreased slightly by 1.90% month-on-month but increased by 74.14% year-on-year [4]. - The average selling price of market pigs decreased due to inventory reduction, with most companies experiencing a price drop of less than 3% month-on-month and approximately 20% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Weight and Pricing Dynamics - The average weight of market pigs sold in June was 125.06 kg, down by 0.77 kg month-on-month, indicating a trend towards reducing weight as companies adjust to market conditions [4]. - The average selling price varied among companies, with the lowest at 13.23 yuan/kg and the highest at 15.57 yuan/kg, with most companies maintaining prices between 14-15 yuan/kg [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.55%, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries, with aquaculture and agricultural product processing leading the gains, while the animal vaccine sector declined [5][12][13] - The average price of live pigs as of July 6 is 14.73 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.38 CNY/kg, and there is market attention on whether prices can reach the 15 CNY/kg mark [6][17] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing deep losses due to weak demand, with chick prices dropping to a near historical low of 1.10 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices falling by 8.82% to 3.10 CNY/kg [7][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.55%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which increased by 1.40% and 1.54% respectively [12] - The aquaculture and agricultural product processing sectors showed significant gains, while the animal vaccine sector faced declines [13] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.64 kg, up 0.5 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [6][17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 120 CNY per head, an increase of 69 CNY from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets decreased to 26 CNY per head [18][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to seasonal price fluctuations, with potential short-term rebounds in July and August [6][19] White Feather Chicken - The average loss per chick is approximately 1.5 CNY, with the average loss per meat chicken at 2.2 CNY due to high temperatures and rising feed costs [7][30] - The update of breeding stock is at 150.07 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, but the uncertainty in imports due to avian influenza poses risks and opportunities for domestic breeding [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices remained stable at 6110 CNY/ton, while soybean prices increased by 2.2% to 3899 CNY/ton [33][34] - Cotton prices rose by 1.36% to 15189 CNY/ton, and corn prices increased by 11 CNY/ton to 2392 CNY/ton [34][37]

Core Viewpoint - The average price of pork in China has decreased in the first half of the year due to stable supply and seasonal decline in demand, with expectations for stable prices in the second half of the year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The average pork price on June 25 was 20.22 yuan/kg, down 11.4% from 22.81 yuan/kg on January 6 [1]. - The pig price in the third week of June was 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting an 11.8% drop since the beginning of the year and a 20.8% year-on-year decrease [1]. - From January to May, the slaughter volume of large-scale pig enterprises reached 15.349 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2]. - Pork imports from January to May totaled 450,000 tons, up 5.2% year-on-year, with May imports at 90,000 tons, an 11.7% increase [2]. - Seasonal demand for pork has declined post-Spring Festival, compounded by warmer weather, leading to a seasonal downturn in consumption [2]. Industry Profitability - Despite the drop in pork prices, the pig farming industry remains profitable, with average profits per head around 120 yuan from January to May, decreasing to about 80 yuan in May [3]. - The price of piglets has shown an overall upward trend this year, contributing to high levels of breeding sows [3]. - Continuous decline in feed prices and improved productivity of breeding sows have led to reduced farming costs [3]. Future Price Trends - The pork price is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations in the second half of the year due to various supply and demand factors [4]. - An increase in the number of breeding sows is anticipated to lead to a steady rise in piglet production, supporting a stable supply of pigs [4]. - Seasonal demand for pork is expected to rise with the approach of cooler weather and upcoming holidays, which will help stabilize prices [4].