Core Insights - The average trading price of lean meat pigs in China reached its lowest point of 13.67 yuan/kg on August 18, 2025, marking a significant decline in the market [1] - The pig market experienced a phase of weight reduction and increased supply in the first half of the month, leading to a price drop [1] - Northern farming groups have completed their weight reduction actions, resulting in a recovery of pig output to normal levels, which has led to an increase in prices in the northern market [1] - The southern market has paused price reductions and is now seeing price increases for pig sales [1] - It is anticipated that pig prices may see a slight increase in the coming days, but there remains a possibility of minor price declines as output may increase again towards the end of the month [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown weak performance despite a general market uptrend, with the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index declining by 0.14%, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [11][12] - The report highlights a significant decline in pig prices due to weak demand and increased supply, with expectations of seasonal price fluctuations in the second half of 2025 [5][15] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing price stabilization but remains deeply unprofitable, with a notable decrease in the number of breeding stock updated in the first half of 2025 [26][30] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index decreased by 0.14%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices increased by 1.09% and 0.69%, respectively [11] - The animal protection sector rebounded, but major sectors like pigs and chickens faced adjustments [12] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Demand and Slowing Production Growth - As of July 20, the average price of live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous week, influenced by low consumer demand and high temperatures [5][15] - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in weight gain [15] - The report anticipates a seasonal price increase during the peak consumption months of July and August, but significant pressure on prices is expected in the fourth quarter due to increased supply [15][18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Price Stabilization and Deep Losses - As of July 18, the price of white feather chicken chicks was 1.50 yuan/chick, showing a slight rebound, while the average price of meat chickens remained at 3.20 yuan/jin [26] - The first half of 2025 saw a 29.62% year-on-year decline in the number of breeding stock updated, raising concerns about future supply [26] - The industry is currently well-supplied, but uncertainties regarding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks pose risks and opportunities [26] 3. Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices slightly decreased to 6080 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 1.1% to 3935 yuan/ton [30] - Cotton prices saw a minor increase to 15366 yuan/ton, and corn prices slightly dropped to 2375 yuan/ton [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in pig prices and the overall performance of the pig farming industry, highlighting changes in supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - As of July 11, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.52%. The average price for 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.79% [3]. - The average weight of market pigs sold this week was 129.03 kg, which is an increase of 0.39 kg compared to the previous week. The national frozen product inventory rate rose to 14.31%, up by 0.08 percentage points [3]. Group 2: June Sales Report Analysis - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively sold 16.2681 million pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55%. Major companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope saw varying changes in their sales volumes [4]. - The total number of market pigs sold in June was approximately 13.5449 million, with a month-on-month increase of 3.30% and a year-on-year increase of 43.36%. The sales of piglets decreased slightly by 1.90% month-on-month but increased by 74.14% year-on-year [4]. - The average selling price of market pigs decreased due to inventory reduction, with most companies experiencing a price drop of less than 3% month-on-month and approximately 20% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Weight and Pricing Dynamics - The average weight of market pigs sold in June was 125.06 kg, down by 0.77 kg month-on-month, indicating a trend towards reducing weight as companies adjust to market conditions [4]. - The average selling price varied among companies, with the lowest at 13.23 yuan/kg and the highest at 15.57 yuan/kg, with most companies maintaining prices between 14-15 yuan/kg [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.55%, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries, with aquaculture and agricultural product processing leading the gains, while the animal vaccine sector declined [5][12][13] - The average price of live pigs as of July 6 is 14.73 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.38 CNY/kg, and there is market attention on whether prices can reach the 15 CNY/kg mark [6][17] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing deep losses due to weak demand, with chick prices dropping to a near historical low of 1.10 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices falling by 8.82% to 3.10 CNY/kg [7][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.55%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which increased by 1.40% and 1.54% respectively [12] - The aquaculture and agricultural product processing sectors showed significant gains, while the animal vaccine sector faced declines [13] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.64 kg, up 0.5 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [6][17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 120 CNY per head, an increase of 69 CNY from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets decreased to 26 CNY per head [18][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to seasonal price fluctuations, with potential short-term rebounds in July and August [6][19] White Feather Chicken - The average loss per chick is approximately 1.5 CNY, with the average loss per meat chicken at 2.2 CNY due to high temperatures and rising feed costs [7][30] - The update of breeding stock is at 150.07 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, but the uncertainty in imports due to avian influenza poses risks and opportunities for domestic breeding [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices remained stable at 6110 CNY/ton, while soybean prices increased by 2.2% to 3899 CNY/ton [33][34] - Cotton prices rose by 1.36% to 15189 CNY/ton, and corn prices increased by 11 CNY/ton to 2392 CNY/ton [34][37]

Core Viewpoint - The average price of pork in China has decreased in the first half of the year due to stable supply and seasonal decline in demand, with expectations for stable prices in the second half of the year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The average pork price on June 25 was 20.22 yuan/kg, down 11.4% from 22.81 yuan/kg on January 6 [1]. - The pig price in the third week of June was 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting an 11.8% drop since the beginning of the year and a 20.8% year-on-year decrease [1]. - From January to May, the slaughter volume of large-scale pig enterprises reached 15.349 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2]. - Pork imports from January to May totaled 450,000 tons, up 5.2% year-on-year, with May imports at 90,000 tons, an 11.7% increase [2]. - Seasonal demand for pork has declined post-Spring Festival, compounded by warmer weather, leading to a seasonal downturn in consumption [2]. Industry Profitability - Despite the drop in pork prices, the pig farming industry remains profitable, with average profits per head around 120 yuan from January to May, decreasing to about 80 yuan in May [3]. - The price of piglets has shown an overall upward trend this year, contributing to high levels of breeding sows [3]. - Continuous decline in feed prices and improved productivity of breeding sows have led to reduced farming costs [3]. Future Price Trends - The pork price is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations in the second half of the year due to various supply and demand factors [4]. - An increase in the number of breeding sows is anticipated to lead to a steady rise in piglet production, supporting a stable supply of pigs [4]. - Seasonal demand for pork is expected to rise with the approach of cooler weather and upcoming holidays, which will help stabilize prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The pig price has reached a 17-month low, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance in the market, with a recent average price of 14.45 yuan per kilogram, down 1.77% from previous periods [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average pig price showed a fluctuating downward trend last week, with a significant drop due to accelerated selling from the breeding sector and weak demand [1] - The national pig price has hit a low point, with the latest data indicating a price of 14.45 yuan per kilogram, marking a 1.77% decrease [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The breeding sector has increased the pace of market release, leading to an oversupply situation that has pressured prices downward [1] - Despite a rebound in prices after reaching low levels, weak demand continues to limit the extent of price increases [1] Group 3: Regional Variations - In some regions, the sentiment among breeders has shifted towards holding back sales, which has led to a reduction in supply and provided some support for prices [1]