Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing a quiet transformation, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segment, driven by changing consumer habits and the blurring of traditional consumption scenarios [3] - The industry is in a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, a shift in consumption structure, and intense competition, leading to a notable trend of "declining volume but increasing profits" [4] Industry Trends - In 2024, the total production of large-scale liquor enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue and total profit continue to rise [4] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a more severe challenge, with liquor production down by 7.2% year-on-year, potentially marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [4] - The revised policy in May 2025, which expands the ban on alcohol to all alcoholic beverages, further exacerbates the decline in traditional government consumption scenarios [4] Consumer Behavior - There is a clear trend towards younger and more rational consumer groups, with the philosophy of "drink less, drink better" gaining traction, leading to a shift towards smaller dining scenarios like casual gatherings and solo dining [6] - In the Chengdu market, the price segment of 100-300 yuan has a market size exceeding 5 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of liquor sales [6] New Consumption Scenarios - The rise of instant retail has revolutionized liquor consumption, with a reported over 100% year-on-year growth in instant retail transactions for liquor, and mid-to-high-end products priced above 500 yuan now accounting for 35% of sales [7] - Outdoor and family scenarios are emerging as new opportunities for mid-to-low-end liquor, with significant growth in consumer access to liquor during outdoor activities [9] - Family gatherings are benefiting from instant retail, allowing for spontaneous purchases of liquor, especially during holidays, with a reported 24% year-on-year growth in liquor sales on platforms like JD.com [10] Product Innovation - The diversification of consumer tastes is prompting liquor companies to innovate, with a focus on lower alcohol content and healthier options, facilitating entry into pure drinking scenarios [11] - The introduction of small bottle liquor options is catering to the "small quantity, multiple times" consumption demand, with over twenty new products launched in the first half of 2025 [11] Market Outlook - The mid-to-low-end liquor market is positioned to capture growth opportunities amid the crisis and market iteration, as the industry transitions from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation" [13] - Companies are encouraged to actively explore new consumption scenarios, innovate products, and leverage emerging channels like instant retail to enhance market penetration and attract younger consumers [13]