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中报理性出清,基本面企稳改善
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-26 08:05
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance of the industry index to exceed the market performance by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the white liquor industry is experiencing a rational clearance of inventory, leading to a stabilization and improvement in the fundamentals. The net profit growth rate for major companies has declined significantly, with specific declines reported as follows: 37% for Jinshiyuan, 63% for Yanghe, 35% for Yingjia Gongjiu, and 71% for Kouzi Jiao [5]. - Central media has been promoting a correct consumption perspective, which is expected to help stabilize white liquor sales. The price of Feitian Moutai has stabilized after a rapid decline, with current prices reported at 1930 yuan for scattered sales and 1970 yuan for boxed sales as of August 26 [5]. - High-end liquor companies are maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, providing support for stock prices. As of August 25, the expected dividend yield for Kweichow Moutai is 3.8% and for Wuliangye is 4.6% [5]. - The report suggests that the current stabilization of the white liquor fundamentals, along with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, may catalyze consumption growth. The focus is on three main lines: high-end liquor with relatively strong demand, mid-range liquor with ongoing national expansion, and local wines with solid market bases [5]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Performance**: The white liquor industry is facing challenges due to macroeconomic conditions, with a notable decline in net profits for major companies [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report indicates that the pricing dynamics in the white liquor sector are being affected by competition, but there are signs of stabilization in sales due to media influence on consumer behavior [4][5]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies potential investment opportunities in high-end liquor, mid-range liquor, and local wines, emphasizing the importance of dividend yields in supporting stock prices [5].