证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 中报陆续披露，关注底部布局机遇 相关研究： | 1.《育儿补贴政策落地，关注乳 | | | --- | --- | | 品消费催化》 | 2025.08.03 | | 2.《7月CPI环比转正，同比持平》 | | | 2025.08.10 | | | 3.《茅台业绩符合预期，关注新 | | | 消费布局机遇》 | 2025.08.17 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -4.3 -15.3 -20.4 绝对收益 2.9 -3.5 11.4 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日，食品饮料行业上涨 3.29% 根据Wind，8月18日-8月22日，上证指数上涨3.49%，深证成指上涨4.57%， 沪深 300 指数上涨 4.18%， ...

今天分享的是：荣续ESG智库：2025年白酒行业ESG白皮书 报告共计：35页 《2025年白酒行业ESG白皮书》核心内容总结 《2025年白酒行业ESG白皮书》由上海现代服务业联合会、红星ESG研究院与荣续ESG智库联合发布，聚焦白酒行业发展与ESG实践，为从业者和研究者呈 现行业全景与未来方向。 白皮书先对白酒行业进行概览。白酒作为中国传统文化与经济生活的独特符号，历经千年传承，从作坊式酿造发展到工业化生产，从区域消费拓展至全国 化、全球化布局，在国民经济与社会文化中地位特殊。书中还展示了粮食生产相关数据，全年粮食播种面积119319.1千公顷、总产量70649.9万吨、单位面积 产量5921.1公斤/公顷，且分季节、分品种呈现具体数据，为理解白酒行业原材料供应基础提供参考，同时分析了行业价值链、市场格局及发展趋势。 在白酒行业ESG发展部分，白皮书指出，在双碳目标推进、ESG理念深入人心的当下，ESG理念为白酒产业发展注入新维度。书中深入探讨ESG信息披露的 实践意义，拆解核心议题解决路径，研究白酒企业如何在生态环境保护、社会责任履行、公司治理完善的要求下，平衡经济效益与社会价值，通过ESG实践 提升长 ...

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a weekly increase of 1.86%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.51 percentage points, with a current valuation (TTM P/E) of 92.2x, which is at 96.2% of its historical percentile [3] - Significant price increases were observed in rare earth concentrates, with prices for mixed rare earth carbonate, fluorocarbon cerium ore in Sichuan, and fluorocarbon cerium ore in Shandong rising by 9.09%, 10.34%, and 12.5% respectively [3] - The prices of praseodymium and neodymium have surged, with praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal prices increasing by 7.01% and 6.03% respectively, driven by strong downstream demand [3][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply tightness persists in the rare earth sector, with high raw material prices leading to reduced operations in some separation enterprises, while short-term increases in praseodymium and neodymium production are limited [6] - Downstream demand remains optimistic, particularly from major neodymium-iron-boron manufacturers, with good order intake in August, although overall inventory levels are low [6] - The magnetic materials segment is experiencing a mixed demand outlook, with new energy vehicle production and sales growth slowing, while wind power installations are expected to release some demand [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply and potential demand increases due to relaxed export controls [7] - Long-term prospects for downstream magnetic material companies are expected to improve as rare earth prices stabilize, with a recommendation to monitor companies with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [7] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry saw a modest increase of 0.48% from August 11 to August 15, underperforming the broader market indices [9] - Kweichow Moutai's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively [10] - Moutai has introduced a new 500ml four-bottle packaging to cater to diverse consumer needs, aiming to enhance market reach and optimize supply-demand matching [11] Investment Strategy in Food and Beverage - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as companies actively innovating in new products and channels [12] - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Qingdao Beer, with a maintained "buy" rating for the food and beverage sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the WuShang JiangTun membership store in Wuhan, which closely mimics the business model of Sam's Club, highlighting the potential for local brands to capture market share in the membership retail space despite existing competition [4][20]. Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - WuShang JiangTun membership store has adopted a membership model similar to Sam's Club, offering two tiers of membership at lower prices: 199 RMB/year for regular members and 580 RMB/year for diamond members, compared to Sam's 260 RMB and 680 RMB respectively [6][7]. - The store features a total area of approximately 20,200 square meters, comparable to Sam's Club, and aims to attract customers through a variety of exclusive member benefits [6][20]. - JiangTun is developing its own supply chain and has launched a private label "JiangTun Preferred," differentiating its product offerings from traditional supermarkets by over 80% [10][26]. Group 2: Product Offerings and Pricing - The product range at JiangTun includes fresh produce, beverages, baked goods, daily necessities, and imported goods, with some items closely resembling popular products from Sam's Club, such as the "Original Earl Grey Swiss Roll" priced at 59.8 RMB [12][10]. - The store also employs promotional strategies similar to Sam's, such as offering a chance to purchase a bottle of Moutai at 1,499 RMB under specific spending conditions [15][20]. Group 3: Market Context and Company Background - WuShang Group, the parent company of JiangTun, is a well-established retail giant in Hubei, with a history of operating various commercial entities and a focus on mid-to-high-end family consumers [21][22]. - The company has faced challenges in recent years, with a reported revenue decline of 6.6% in 2024, prompting a strategic shift towards membership-based retail to rejuvenate growth [23][25]. - The launch of JiangTun has positively impacted WuShang Group's stock price, which has increased by over 30% since early August [28]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Despite the presence of Sam's Club in Wuhan, JiangTun has garnered significant attention, indicating a potential growth opportunity in the membership retail sector [30][31]. - The article suggests that while Sam's Club has a strong global supply chain and product selection, local competitors like JiangTun may find success by catering to specific consumer needs and preferences [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has underperformed compared to major indices, with a 1.11% increase over the past two weeks, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.73 percentage points [12] - The retail sales in July showed a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, indicating a slight slowdown compared to June [3] - The report highlights the resilience of high-end liquor companies and the growing interest in various segments such as craft beer and health-oriented products [56][57] Summary by Sections Market Review - In the last two weeks (August 4 - August 15), the A-share food and beverage industry rose by 1.11%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.73 percentage points, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.74 percentage points, and the CSI 300 Index by 2.53 percentage points [12] - Year-to-date, the A-share food and beverage industry has decreased by 6.11%, again underperforming major indices [12] - Among sub-sectors, baked goods (+3.45%), snacks (+3.41%), and seasoning products (+2.98%) saw the highest gains, while dairy products (-1.26%), soft drinks (-0.23%), and pre-processed foods (-0.01%) experienced declines [12] Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 yuan/kg, down 5.9% year-on-year [35] - The national market price for pork is 25.16 yuan/kg, down 18.1% year-on-year [38] - The price of PET for water bottles is 6,100 yuan/ton, down 12.0% year-on-year [38] Key Events Tracking - Retail sales in July totaled 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3] - Major liquor companies are entering the craft beer market, with new products launched by Wuliangye and Zhenjiu [3] - The Chinese coffee market is projected to reach approximately 1,461 billion yuan by 2025, with ready-to-drink coffee expected to maintain high double-digit growth [3] Important Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai reported a 9.16% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 910.94 billion yuan [55] - Chongqing Beer reported a slight decline in revenue for the same period, with total revenue of 88.39 billion yuan, down 0.24% [55] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-end liquor companies with strong brand and distribution capabilities, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [56] - In the consumer goods sector, there is growing interest in yellow wine, beer, and health-oriented snacks [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is entering a low base period for operations, and the dividend yield advantage is becoming evident. The performance of mass-market products is showing differentiation, with a focus on the potential of new business models [4][14] - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for improved revenue and profit performance in the second half of 2025 due to a low base effect [4][16] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The implementation of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has impacted normal consumption scenarios, but recent media corrections may help restore some consumption [4][14] - The overall sales volume in the white liquor industry has declined year-on-year, with high-end brands experiencing manageable declines while mid-range brands have seen more significant drops [4][14] - The stock price declines for major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have been substantial, with maximum declines of -47.48% and -65.98% respectively since 2021 [5][15] - The expected dividend yields for major brands in 2025 are competitive with other sectors, indicating a potential for investment [6][17] Mass-Market Products - Companies like Angel Yeast and Weilong have shown robust performance, with Angel Yeast reporting a revenue increase of 10.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [18][29] - Weilong's new product lines have performed well, and the company is focusing on expanding its product categories and improving operational efficiency [18][20] - The mass-market segment is entering a reporting period, with companies like Anqi Yeast and Weilong showing positive growth trends [18][21] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index has shown a slight increase of +0.48% in the recent week, but it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index [8][21] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage sector has faced challenges, with a cumulative decline of -6.11%, indicating a lag in recovery compared to other sectors [21][22] - The highest performing sub-sectors this week included seasoning and fermentation products, with a notable increase of +2.19% [21][25]

Consumption - Travel and tourism activity remains high, with significant recovery in urban and intercity population movement, reflected in increased subway ridership and flight operations[7] - Retail and wholesale volumes for automobiles have slightly declined, indicating a weakening effect of promotional activities and subsidies[7] - Movie attendance and box office revenues have significantly decreased post-summer, indicating a drop in consumer interest[7] Investment - New special bonds issued reached CNY 3.08 trillion as of August 16, with a recent acceleration in issuance[20] - Real estate transaction volumes remain subdued, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a slight recovery but still down year-on-year[20] - Construction activity is marginally improving, with asphalt operating rates increasing and cement shipment rates recovering seasonally[20] Trade and Prices - Import and export volumes are showing divergence, with a 11.1% decline in imports from China to South Korea and a 4.3% drop in global exports[26] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased for seven consecutive weeks, reflecting a retreat from previous shipping surges due to tariff concerns[26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains flat overall, with industrial prices showing little change except for a notable 15% increase in lithium carbonate prices[44] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[47] - The US dollar index fell by 42 basis points, influenced by moderate inflation data from July, which strengthened expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [1][4]. Core Views - External positive factors are gradually increasing, and Kweichow Moutai's interim report demonstrates operational resilience. The report indicates that the liquor sector has shown a slight increase of 0.9% this week, with expectations for continued valuation recovery due to policy anticipation [2][11]. - The report highlights three investment themes: companies with strong anti-cyclical performance like Shanxi Fenjiu and Kweichow Moutai, companies with strong cyclical attributes like Luzhou Laojiao, and companies with low inventory burdens like Yingjia Gongjiu [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.49% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.21 percentage points. The top five gainers in the sector included Guifaxiang (28.74%), Angel Yeast (7.52%), Tianwei Food (6.90%), Gujing Gongjiu (6.58%), and ST Tongpu (6.54%) [1][20]. 2. Liquor Sector - Kweichow Moutai's interim report showed a total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year. The report notes a slight decline in profit margins due to fluctuations in gross and expense ratios, but the company has shown resilience amid industry adjustments [2][11]. - The report suggests that liquor companies will focus on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while emphasizing consumer engagement and internationalization in the medium to long term [2][13]. 3. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with a slight decrease in fund holdings in the second quarter of 2025. Yanjing Beer has seen an increase in fund holdings, while other major brands like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer have seen declines [3][14]. - The snack sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, particularly in Yanjinpuzi and Wancheng Group, indicating a shift towards a more category-driven growth model [3][15]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various segments, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, and Dongpeng Beverage [3][19].

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is undergoing a slow adjustment that began in 2021, currently showing a U-shaped bottom pattern, but it has not yet confirmed a bottom [1][5][9] - The implementation of a liquor ban in Q2 2025 has accelerated the adjustment in the white liquor industry, impacting demand, sales, and wholesale prices [1][3][22] - The adjustment period is expected to be a critical window for observing whether the industry can completely clear out [1][9] Key Points and Arguments - Compared to the previous cycle (2012-2016), the current adjustment is characterized by a U-shaped bottom rather than a V-shaped bottom, indicating a longer and more complex recovery process [1][9][10] - High-end liquor and strong regional liquor brands have shown greater resilience during the adjustment, demonstrating leading advantages in fundamentals, stock prices, and market positioning [1][6][18] - The current cycle has not yet fully bottomed out, with the Shenyuan White Liquor Index and wholesale prices still showing potential for further decline [1][7][10] - The second and third quarters of 2025 may see limited declines in financial reports, but the difficulty in narrowing future declines is significant [1][9][10] Historical Context - The previous adjustment cycle from 2012 to 2016 was relatively quick, lasting about two to three years, with significant declines in wholesale prices, stock prices, and financial reports [2][13] - The current cycle has seen a similar mid-to-high double-digit decline in stock prices and valuations, with a faster pace of fund liquidation in 2025 compared to the previous cycle [3][11][21] Performance Indicators - The performance of high-end liquor brands has been stable, quickly adapting to new high-end consumption scenarios, while mid-range liquor has suffered the most due to policy impacts [15][16] - The overall performance of white liquor stocks has shown a significant decline, with high-end brands like Moutai maintaining positive growth through strategic distribution [16][17] Future Outlook - High-end and strong regional liquor brands are expected to continue showing faster recovery and greater elasticity in the market [18] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new upward repair cycle following the current adjustment, contingent on the successful clearing of the market [22][23] Additional Insights - The current adjustment has been influenced by external factors and policies, particularly the liquor ban, which has expedited the industry's clearing process [22] - The ideal signal for determining the industry bottom would be simultaneous bottoming of financial reports and wholesale prices, which is currently being monitored [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing performance of new consumption sectors, particularly in bottom-tier liquor and leisure snacks, indicating a sustained high demand [6][9]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Kweichow Moutai showing resilience despite market pressures, and the report suggests a focus on cyclical and high-dividend leaders [6][9]. - The new consumption sector is expected to see steady performance driven by strong fundamentals, with specific attention on companies like Tea Baidao and Gu Ming [7][9]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Qingdao Beer production reached 1.1037 million tons in the first half of the year, and liquor prices have decreased by 2.0% year-on-year from January to July [6][19]. - New standards for Dongxiang liquor are in progress, indicating regulatory developments in the industry [6][19]. Company News - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 89.389 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 9% increase year-on-year, with net profit also up by 9% [6][9]. - Anji Yeast's revenue for H1 2025 was 7.899 billion yuan, a 10% increase, driven by reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [7][9]. - Wei Long's revenue for H1 2025 was 3.483 billion yuan, a 19% increase, with expectations for stable sales growth in the second half of the year [7][9]. Key Company Feedback - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao being recommended for their strong market positions and potential for growth [6][9]. - The report also notes the performance of new consumption brands, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Nai Xue's Tea and other beverage brands [7][9]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance over the past months, with a 0.4% increase over the last month but a 6.9% decrease over the last three months [3][4]. - The liquor sector is highlighted as having a significant rebound potential, with Kweichow Moutai's price stabilizing and expectations for improved performance in the coming quarters [6][9].