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东吴证券:给予迎驾贡酒买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-26 09:17
Core Viewpoint - The company has released its 2025 mid-year report, showing a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with a focus on inventory clearance in the mid-to-low-end liquor segment while maintaining stability in the cave-aged liquor category [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.9% and 18.2% year-on-year, respectively. In Q2 alone, revenue and net profit fell by 24.1% and 35.2% year-on-year [2]. - The liquor revenue for the first half of 2025 dropped by 17.4% year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 showing declines of 12.3% and 25.7%, respectively, indicating a worsening trend in Q2 [2]. - The net profit margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 27.1%, primarily due to a 2.6 percentage point drop in gross margin [3]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is intensifying inventory clearance efforts for mid-to-low-end products, particularly the Jin Yin Xing brand, while the cave-aged series is expected to see only a slight decline [2]. - The company plans to update and upgrade products priced below 100 yuan, as these products are becoming outdated [2]. - The company is focusing on deepening channel management and product adjustments, emphasizing the core cave-aged products while optimizing the Jin Yin Xing and general liquor product lines [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual expansion in the 100-300 yuan price range for Anhui liquor, with expectations for a recovery in growth after the mid-to-low-end liquor clearance in 2025 [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.7 billion, 23.5 billion, and 27.1 billion yuan, respectively, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 17/16/14 times [4].