Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is expected to undergo significant changes in the first half of 2025 due to economic and policy influences, presenting potential investment opportunities as the sector is currently in a deep adjustment phase [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The white liquor industry is experiencing five major changes: 1) Product matrix transformation focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, and high cost-performance products; 2) Continuous channel upgrades with companies forming platform firms to enhance channel control and balance online and offline sales; 3) Marketing strategies shifting away from "red envelope" competition to nurturing new scenarios and demographics; 4) Rational goal-setting with leading companies focusing on channel health and long-term development [1][3][4]. - The industry is transitioning from an "advertising king - channel king - brand king" phase to a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The sector currently exhibits characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividend returns, with companies like Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Gujing Gongji boasting dividend yields above 4%, while Kweichow Moutai has a yield of 3.55% [4]. - The expectation is that as consumer spending gradually recovers and the strengths of leading companies become more pronounced, firms with strong barriers will be the first to achieve value re-evaluation [4]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao and others that may benefit from policy and demand changes [5].

天风证券研报表示，2025年上半年，经济和政策双重影响下白酒行业迎4大变化：①产品矩阵变化：在 低度化/年轻化/高性价比趋势下，酒企相继重视低度产品序列化&中档价位序列化布局工作&产品品质 升级；②渠道持续升级：酒企通过组建平台公司加强渠道掌控，拥抱新渠道平衡线上线下；③营销：打 破"红包"内卷，侧重培育新场景、新人群；④目标理性：头部酒企均以渠道健康&中长期发展为方向， 理性看待业绩增速目标。白酒板块PE修复或先于EPS修复，预计2026年二季度板块业绩低基数背景下或 迎EPS层面拐点，重视当前板块投资机会。建议关注：①价值主线：强品牌、强需求韧性且分红回报可 观的酒企；②弹性主线：政策&需求端变化带来的潜在预期修复机会。 ...