Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of 25-year Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the official guidance price, raising concerns in the market [2][5]. Price Trends - As of December 10, the wholesale price for 25-year Feitian (loose) is 1500 RMB per bottle, down 15 RMB from the previous day, while the original box price remains at 1520 RMB [2][3]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by over 30% throughout the year, with a cumulative decline of 32.43% from its peak [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to dealers liquidating inventory amid falling prices, leading to a "cut-loss" strategy to recover funds [6]. - There are three pricing tiers for Moutai: factory price, official guidance price, and the comprehensive cost for dealers, which is currently between 1700 RMB and 1800 RMB [7]. Consumer Demand - Consumer demand for high-end liquor is reportedly shrinking, which could further impact prices if the trend continues into the 2026 Spring Festival [7][8]. - The market is experiencing a "price drop panic," exacerbated by online platforms and promotional activities [8]. Industry Outlook - The Chinese liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, leading to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8]. - Despite the price downturn, leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are maintaining strong dividend payouts, reflecting their robust financial health [8][9]. Dividend Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a cash dividend of approximately 300.01 billion RMB, while Wuliangye announced a total of 100.07 billion RMB in cash dividends [8][9].