Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of 25-year Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the official guidance price, raising concerns in the market [2][5]. Price Trends - As of December 10, the wholesale price for 25-year Feitian (loose) is 1500 RMB per bottle, down 15 RMB from the previous day, while the original box price remains at 1520 RMB [2][3]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by over 30% throughout the year, with a cumulative decline of 32.43% from its peak [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to dealers liquidating inventory amid falling prices, leading to a "cut-loss" strategy to recover funds [6]. - There are three pricing tiers for Moutai: factory price, official guidance price, and the comprehensive cost for dealers, which is currently between 1700 RMB and 1800 RMB [7]. Consumer Demand - Consumer demand for high-end liquor is reportedly shrinking, which could further impact prices if the trend continues into the 2026 Spring Festival [7][8]. - The market is experiencing a "price drop panic," exacerbated by online platforms and promotional activities [8]. Industry Outlook - The Chinese liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, leading to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8]. - Despite the price downturn, leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are maintaining strong dividend payouts, reflecting their robust financial health [8][9]. Dividend Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a cash dividend of approximately 300.01 billion RMB, while Wuliangye announced a total of 100.07 billion RMB in cash dividends [8][9].

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai launched a new product priced at 11,000 yuan per bottle, which sold out quickly on the iMoutai app, indicating strong demand for premium products [1] - The overall trend for Moutai products shows a decline in prices, with significant drops observed in various product lines throughout the year [4][5] Product Launch and Sales - The new Guizhou Moutai product (Panama International Exposition Gold Medal 110th Anniversary) was released on December 8 and sold out on the first day [1] - Previous limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary of the Five-Star Trademark, sold out in 2 minutes at a price of 7,000 yuan per bottle [4] Price Trends - The wholesale price of the 70th Anniversary product peaked at 13,500 yuan per bottle shortly after its release but has since fallen to 7,900 yuan [4] - Other products like the "Snake Moutai" and "Shengle Feitian" have also seen significant price drops, with declines of 57.5% and 51.76% from their peak prices, respectively [4] - The price of the 2025 Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,600 yuan, marking a decline of over 32% from its initial price of 2,255 yuan [4] Market Dynamics - Retail prices on e-commerce platforms have fallen below the official guidance price, with some listings as low as 1,399 yuan per bottle [5] - Moutai Group is actively working to stabilize market prices and has engaged with major e-commerce platforms to combat unfair competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has continued to decline, with significant drops observed since late November, raising concerns about market stability and pricing strategies [1][3]. Price Trends - As of December 4, the wholesale price for 25-year Moutai (loose) is 1545 RMB per bottle, down 5 RMB from the previous day, while the original 25-year Moutai is priced at 1550 RMB, down 10 RMB [1][2]. - The price of Moutai has decreased over 30% from its peak this year, with a notable decline starting from June when it first fell below 2000 RMB [3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices has been exacerbated by promotional activities on e-commerce platforms, with some prices dropping below 1600 RMB, and a group purchase price on Pinduoduo reaching as low as 1399 RMB [3][5]. - Moutai Group is actively working to stabilize the market by collaborating with major e-commerce platforms to prevent unfair competition and ensure proper integration into the Moutai distribution ecosystem [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing price war in the Chinese liquor market during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with a notable decline in promotional intensity compared to previous years [2][3][9] - Major liquor brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Xijiu have adopted a more aggressive stance, emphasizing authorized sales channels to combat unauthorized sales and protect their pricing strategies [3][9][11] - The overall performance of the liquor industry has been declining, with third-quarter reports showing collective downturns for most brands, prompting companies to take action to stabilize prices and support their distributors [3][10][11] Group 2 - E-commerce platforms have shown varied promotional strategies for liquor during "Double Eleven," with Tmall maintaining significant investment while other platforms like Meituan have reduced their promotional efforts [5][6] - The price of major liquor products has increased on some platforms compared to previous promotional periods, indicating a shift in pricing strategies and a reduction in aggressive discounting [5][6][9] - The decline in consumer interest in liquor, as evidenced by lower search interest on platforms like Baidu, has contributed to the downward pressure on prices and the need for brands to reinforce their pricing integrity [9][10][11]