文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 报告摘要 2025年12月份非农数据简述 1、新增非农低于预期，前两个月数据明显下修 。新增非农就业5万，预期7万。私人部门新增非农就 业3.7万，预期7.5万。10-11月新增就业合计下修7.6万。就业增长集中在教育保健服务（+4.1万，前 值+5.9万）、休闲酒店（+4.7万，前值-0.3万）。零售、建筑、制造业、专业和商业服务等行业就业 萎缩。 2、失业率意外回落， 录得4.4%（4.375%），预期4.5%，前值4.5%（4.536%）。劳动参与率从 62.46%降至62.40%，预期62.4%。失业率下行主要源于就业增长和供给小幅收缩，前者影响约0.14 个百分点，后者影响约0.03个百分点。 3、时薪增速符合预期 ，但周工时下滑。私人行业时薪环比0.3%，预期0.3%，同比增速3.8%，预期 3.6%。周工时从34.3小时降至34.2小时，仍处于2015年以来的低位水平。周薪环比持平，并未增长 （时薪是周薪和周工时的倒算值）。 4、市场降息预期有所降温 。期货市场定价今年降息次数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the U.S. immigration landscape are distorting the employment market, making it harder for investors and policymakers to accurately assess the actual slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - A reduction in immigration supply could lead to a tighter labor market, potentially suppressing the rise in unemployment rates, despite being a temporary and artificial effect [1] - Recent data shows a decrease of 696,000 jobs in May, the largest single-month drop since the historic decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, with some economists attributing this decline to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Growth Metrics - The "breakeven" employment growth value, which indicates the net new jobs needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population and maintain stable unemployment rates, is declining [4] - Morgan Stanley economists noted that the average monthly "breakeven" employment growth was 210,000 last year, dropping to 170,000 this year, and projected to fall to 90,000 by the end of the year and 80,000 next year [8] - Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics predicts that due to weak labor supply growth, the "breakeven" employment growth is rapidly approaching 50,000 per month [8] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The low unemployment rate may persist but could be due to misleading reasons, as indicated by Sweet [9] - If predictions hold true, monthly job growth in the U.S. may continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate, creating a confusing signal for investors and policymakers [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the labor market's stability and low unemployment, but acknowledged the need to examine a broader set of labor market indicators for a more accurate assessment [10] Group 4: Immigration Projections - The Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration to be 2 million this year and 1.5 million next year, down from 3.3 million in 2023, but these estimates may be overly optimistic given the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration [11] - Morgan Stanley economists have significantly revised their net immigration forecasts down to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, suggesting a potential "false" tight labor market with monthly non-farm job growth far below 100,000 [11]