国家移民管理局今天发布10项移民和出入境管理服务政策举措。自2025年11月5日起，在北京、上海、粤港澳大湾区的基础上，在长三角、京津冀地区全域，以及全国所有自由贸易试验区实施往来港澳人才签注政策。 ...

10月18日，美国多个城市爆发了反对总统特朗普政策的大规模抗议活动。大批美国民众手持"不要国 王""民主而非君主"等标语对特朗普政府的政策表示不满。报道称本次抗议集会旨在反对特朗普政府对 言论自由的打压和移民政策。特朗普17日接受采访时表示"他们称我为国王，我不是国王。"集会开始 前，路易斯安那州众议院议长迈克·约翰称此次抗议为"仇恨美国的游行"。 ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】"我们真不希望这是个进一步却退两步的方案。"对于美国总统特朗普让制造业回 流的雄心，美国电气制造商协会高管斯宾塞·彼得森颇为无奈。 毕竟无论是关税还是移民等一系列政策，特朗普政府的做法似乎都在背道而驰。 美国"政客新闻网"在10月18日发表的评论文章中称，特朗普政府的制造业回流政策陷入自我矛盾的困 境，关税推高了美国制造商扩张所需的原材料和进口设备成本，新的签证和移民政策可能缩减人才供 给，加剧制造业技能工人短缺问题，而白宫推动的开支削减则威胁到企业回流所需的补贴，导致补贴环 境不稳定，甚至特朗普政府内部都存在左右互搏的政策，导致资金项目被暂停审查。以至于不少企业抱 怨，他们压根不知道应该围绕哪种"美国优先"政策进行规划。 "只想着征税，忽略了供给侧障碍" 文章直言，这些政策共同凸显了特朗普即兴式执政方式的局限性，也暴露了其关税制度更多是为了报复 而非抢占先机，结果导致了一场代价高昂的平衡博弈，商界领袖表示这一局面越来越难以应对。 例如，关税提高了进口设备的价格，其中包括用于社区大学实验室的训练机器人，使得培训美国本地工 人变得更贵，而这些工人正是政府希望填补新岗位的人才来源。 代表30 ...

Core Viewpoint - A federal judge in Rhode Island ruled that the Trump administration violated a previous court order by implementing similar policies that condition federal emergency management funding on state cooperation with federal immigration enforcement [1] Group 1: Legal Context - The ruling was made by Judge William Smith on October 14, stating that the government's actions were explicitly prohibited in a prior ruling on September 24 [1] - The case originated from a lawsuit filed on May 13 by 20 states against the federal government, claiming that the Department of Transportation and the Department of Homeland Security illegally used federal funding as leverage to enforce immigration policies [1] Group 2: Implications for States - California's Attorney General Rob Bonta highlighted that the federal government was using federal funds intended for road repairs and emergencies as bargaining chips to compel state compliance with immigration enforcement actions [1] - The 20 states involved in the lawsuit argued that this practice undermines Congress's authority over federal spending decisions, constituting a violation of the Constitution [1]

Core Points - A federal judge in Rhode Island ruled that the Trump administration violated a previous court order by implementing similar policies that condition federal emergency management funding on state cooperation with federal immigration enforcement [1][2] - The judge's ruling highlighted that the government's actions were explicitly prohibited in a prior ruling made on September 24 [2] Summary by Sections - **Legal Context** - The ruling stems from a lawsuit filed by 20 states against the federal government, claiming that the Department of Transportation and the Department of Homeland Security illegally used federal funding as leverage to enforce immigration policies proposed by President Trump [2] - California's Attorney General Rob Bonta stated that the federal government was using federal funds intended for road repairs and emergencies as bargaining chips, threatening to withhold these funds unless states complied with immigration enforcement actions [2] - **Constitutional Implications** - The states involved in the lawsuit argue that the federal government's actions undermine Congress's authority over federal spending, constituting a violation of constitutional principles [2]

据路透社9日报道，本周一，芝加哥市长约翰逊签署行政令，设立"无ICE区域"——该区域禁止联邦移民 执法局（ICE）特工在执法行动中使用芝加哥市的公共财产。"特朗普试图非法逮捕非裔人士，这已不 是第一次。我绝不会退缩"，约翰逊在社交媒体上表示。伊利诺伊州州长普里茨克（潜在的2028年民主 党总统候选人）也同样表态不会妥协："特朗普现在公然要求逮捕制衡他权力的民选代表。照此下去， 全面走向威权主义的道路上，他还会做出什么事来？" 伊利诺伊州和芝加哥市已于6日对特朗普政府提 起诉讼，试图阻止其向芝加哥市部署国民警卫队。约翰逊7日重申，向芝加哥部署国民警卫队"违法、违 宪、危险且错误"。普里茨克则在社交媒体上转帖称，芝加哥已连续9年蝉联"全美最佳大城市"。 特朗普对芝加哥的军事部署引发了新一轮的抗议。当地时间8日晚，数百人在芝加哥市中心游行抗议国 民警卫队的部署。路透社称，这反映出人们对美国政府在芝加哥地区强硬推行移民执法行动的不满情绪 日益加剧。除常规抗议口号外，现场新增了"Todos somos Silverio"（西班牙语，意为"我们都是西尔维里 奥"）的呼喊声。这一标语源于今年9月，移民西尔维里奥·比列加斯· ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding inflation trends and the impact of tariffs and immigration policies on economic performance [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Projections**: The core PCE inflation rate is approximately 2.9%, expected to rise to around 3% by year-end. The key question remains whether inflation in 2026 will be driven by tariffs or if it will be a temporary factor [2][3]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The economy has not fully absorbed the effects of tariffs, and additional tariffs announced by the President are included in baseline forecasts. Companies are still determining how much of these costs can be passed on to consumers [2][5]. - **Immigration Policy Effects**: Immigration restrictions are contributing to inflation, particularly in the service sector. The labor supply from immigrants, who tend to work in lower-income households, is significant for the economy. Service sector inflation has been rising, while goods inflation remains weaker [3][4]. - **Economic Growth Trends**: The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with a projected growth rate of about 1.8% for the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024. However, a strong rebound is anticipated in the third quarter, with growth projected at around 3% [4][5]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Non-labor costs are rising, and companies are absorbing some of these costs without significantly raising prices. This situation may lead to future inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending [5][6]. - **Federal Reserve Strategy**: The Federal Reserve is recalibrating its strategy, shifting focus from solely inflation risks to balancing inflation with labor market risks. Two additional rate cuts are anticipated by year-end to adapt to changing economic conditions [6][7]. - **Political Pressure on Fed**: Despite potential political pressures, the Fed's independence is expected to remain intact. However, uncertainties regarding policy direction post-2026, when Chairman Powell's term ends, pose risks for investors [8]. Other Important Considerations - **India's Economic Outlook**: India is facing challenges due to slowed domestic demand and trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. However, government stimulus measures are expected to boost growth starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, maintaining a positive outlook for India's economic recovery [8].

2025年，美国陷入了前所未有的动荡局面。各地发生了大规模的骚乱，包括美国的口岸、德克萨斯州以及洛杉矶市等地。美国口岸的卡车工人因特朗普实施 的对华关税战而失业，而德克萨斯州则因为特朗普派遣部队阻止非法移民涌入而爆发了冲突。与此同时，洛杉矶市也因特朗普调派国民警卫队、海军陆战队 及海关人员进行大规模的移民抓捕而引发了抗议。 不仅仅是国内问题，特朗普还将矛头指向了美国高校，要求哈佛大学提供外国学生的详细资料。这一举措进一步凸显了特朗普强烈的排外立场，他似乎在推 动驱逐所有非美国本土的外来人士，甚至提出取消公民出生权。然而，最近美国法院裁定特朗普的这一做法违反宪法。 美国局势并非第一次如此紧张。美国军队不仅在海外展开行动，同时也在国内进行执法。美国的国民警卫队和海军陆战队被派往国内执行任务，而美军野战 军也前往加勒比海展开缉毒行动。然而，随着美国联邦政府的关门，军人们将无法如常领取军饷，从10月1日起，他们的薪水将暂停。 美国联邦政府关门的原因是预算案未能通过，而民主党人拒绝在参议院支持特朗普的财政预算方案。近期的投票结果显示，仅有三名民主党议员支持共和党 的预算案。每年9月，美国参议院都会就年度拨款法案进行投票 ...

斯蒂芬·米兰，这位与前特朗普政府关系密切的新晋美联储理事，宛如一颗石子投向了美联储内部谨慎降息的平静湖面，激起了层层涟漪，为未来的货币政 策走向增添了复杂性。他不仅在上一次的利率会议上，以一己之力挑战主流意见，力主采取更为激进的降息措施，更将住房成本的变化，视为自己通胀预测 体系中的核心风向标。米兰明确表示，一旦租金数据出现意外飙升，他将毫不犹豫地修正自己当前温和的通胀预期。 回溯九月份的那场美联储利率会议，米兰与大多数同僚的意见分歧暴露无遗。在其他官员纷纷投票支持将联邦基金利率下调25个基点之际，米兰却投出了唯 一的反对票。他认为，这种小幅降息的力度远远不够，美联储应该一步到位，直接降息50个基点。这并非一时冲动，而是源于他对美国经济现状的深刻洞察 和独特判断。 米兰反复强调，当前的利率水平已经"深入限制性区间"，远高于他所认为的"中性利率"——即既不会过度刺激也不会抑制经济增长的理想利率水平。他估 算，当前的中性利率大约在2.5%左右，这意味着现行的利率水平几乎高出这一水平近两个百分点。 在米兰看来，这种差距蕴藏着巨大的风险。他警告称，如果将利率长期维持在过高的水平，将会给美国经济带来巨大的压力，尤其有可 ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration's economic team is adjusting its messaging strategy in response to weak employment data and ongoing inflation pressures, advising the president to convey a message of patience until next year [1][2] - Despite the current economic challenges, advisors are optimistic about future improvements, projecting that economic indicators will begin to show positive changes by early 2026 [1][3] - Public perception of Trump's economic leadership has become increasingly negative, with recent polls indicating that only 37% of adults approve of his handling of the economy [5] Group 1: Economic Messaging Strategy - Advisors suggest that Trump should focus on a long-term optimistic outlook, indicating that significant economic improvements are expected by 2026 [1][2] - The administration is emphasizing supply-side reforms and historic trade agreements aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing [3] Group 2: Economic Reality and Public Perception - Key economic indicators remain weak, with monthly job growth slowing and inflation continuing to affect consumers [4] - Public opinion has shifted negatively, with a significant portion of voters believing that Trump's policies have worsened the economy since he took office [5] Group 3: Policy Challenges - Independent economists warn that some of Trump's policies, particularly regarding immigration and tariffs, may hinder growth and increase costs in the short term [7] - There is a concern that ignoring comprehensive economic indicators in policy-making could lead to significant government errors [8]