Core Viewpoint - The trend of "anti-involution" and the demand for energy storage both domestically and internationally are driving an upward signal in the battery and materials sector, indicating a potential profit reversal due to price inflection points and expanding demand [1] Industry Summary - Rapid global development of energy storage is driving the demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, with an expected global energy storage demand of approximately 500 GWh by 2025. Coupled with the demand for power batteries, global LFP battery shipments are projected to reach 1,300 GWh [1] - By 2026, energy storage demand may further expand to over 700 GWh, leading to a year-on-year increase of over one million tons in shipments of iron-lithium cathode materials [1] - High-pressure solid products are continuously iterating, with products of the third generation and above accounting for over 50%, and fourth-generation products set to be released in volume soon [1] - Leading companies are operating at high capacity utilization rates, and seasonal demand is expected to remain elevated, providing upward price potential [1] Company Summary - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which experienced a daily fluctuation of 20%. This index selects listed companies involved in clean energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage technologies to reflect the overall performance of high-growth and innovative energy-related enterprises [1] - The Innovation Energy Index focuses on technology-driven and green sustainable development, aiming to track cutting-edge dynamics in the fields of new energy and related technological innovations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in electricity prices despite an increase in electricity sales volume, with a reduction in asset impairment year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in coal prices, which is expected to improve cost structure and lead to a potential profit reversal [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its rating to "Cautious Accumulate" due to the anticipated decline in electricity prices in Guangdong for 2025, lowering the EPS forecast for 2025-2026 to 0.18/0.22 yuan (previously 0.32/0.41 yuan), and projecting an EPS of 0.30 yuan for 2027. The target price has been reduced to 5.17 yuan (previously 5.76 yuan) based on a 1.1x PB valuation for 2025 [2]. - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 57.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. In Q4 2024, revenue was 14.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while the net profit was a loss of 0.50 billion yuan, improving by 0.25 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. Electricity Generation and Pricing - In Q4 2024, the company's electricity generation volume increased, but the average on-grid electricity price decreased. The total on-grid electricity volume was 30.31 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The average on-grid electricity price was 0.536 yuan/kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12.0%, down by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 0.32 billion yuan, improving by 0.49 billion yuan year-on-year. The improvement in performance is attributed to a reduction in asset impairment losses, which were 0.36 billion yuan in Q4 2024, down by 0.93 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Project Development - The company is steadily advancing its construction projects, with a total of 8.0 GW of coal, gas, wind, and solar projects under construction expected to be operational between 2025 and 2027. Additionally, there are 2.8 GW of planned and signed acquisition projects [4]. - The company's coal-fired power generation capacity remains high, with 31.8 GW of coal-fired capacity accounting for 80.9% of total installed capacity, and coal-fired electricity generation of 110.9 billion kWh making up 92.9% of total electricity generation [4]. Coal Price Trends - The domestic coal prices are currently on a downward trend, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 power coal closing price at 665 yuan/ton as of March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. This decline in coal prices is expected to improve the company's cost structure and support a potential profit reversal [4].