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康曼德资本董事长丁楹:A股将进入“盈利驱动+政策引导”双轮驱动新阶段
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-25 15:00
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a new phase driven by "profitability and policy guidance" in 2026, transitioning from a liquidity-driven market in 2025, with a focus on both growth and stability in investment strategies [2][5]. Investment Opportunities - The two main investment lines for the next 3-5 years are: 1. "Growth Steed" representing technology innovation fields such as domestic computing power, AI applications, robotics, and energy storage 2. "Steady Horse" representing traditional industry upgrades and value reassessment, including high-end manufacturing, resource security, and financial openness [3][4]. - Institutional funds are expected to continue focusing on AI and computing power, but with a more balanced allocation towards traditional industries like finance and resource optimization [2][3]. Market Characteristics - The 2026 market is characterized by a shift from liquidity-driven dynamics to profitability-driven dynamics, which may increase volatility but still present structural opportunities [5]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "technological self-reliance" as a core strategy for high-quality development, which is anticipated to reshape the valuation system of A-shares, particularly benefiting technology growth stocks [4]. Valuation and Pricing Logic - The "technological self-reliance" policy is expected to enhance the visibility of earnings and policy certainty for technology growth stocks, thereby reducing risk premiums and raising valuation benchmarks [4]. - The pricing logic for technology stocks will shift from being purely thematic-driven to a three-dimensional assessment based on "technical barriers, market space, and policy support" [4]. Investment Strategy for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors are advised to adopt a "core + satellite" allocation framework, focusing on long-term growth sectors while dynamically adjusting satellite positions based on market conditions and policy catalysts [3][5]. - In 2026, it is recommended to initially lean towards "Growth Steed" sectors in the first half of the year, and gradually increase exposure to "Steady Horse" sectors in the latter half to manage potential market fluctuations [5].