Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing significant volatility due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to a shift in investor sentiment from short-term fluctuations to long-term pessimism, which has resulted in widespread panic selling and capital outflows affecting global markets, including A-shares [2][9] - Despite the overall strong performance of A-share indices, the market remains sensitive to negative news, which may amplify adverse impacts and increase volatility in the short term [3][12] - The report suggests that the resilience of the A-share market is notable, with expectations for a potential recovery as negative factors are digested, indicating a wide range of fluctuations may characterize the market in the short term [3][13] Group 2 - The report recommends a short-term focus on stable dividend sectors to mitigate volatility risks, while mid to long-term attention should be directed towards innovation-driven sectors such as computing and telecommunications for recovery opportunities [5][14] - The bond market is expected to attract more funds due to reduced risk appetite from geopolitical tensions, with short-term bonds being a preferable choice for investors seeking flexibility [6][35] - In the commodity market, there is a notable fluctuation in energy and precious metals, with the potential for gold to maintain a gradual upward trend in the long term despite short-term volatility risks [7][40]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the market may be overly optimistic about the quick resolution of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, indicating a significant expectation gap regarding the duration of the conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts oil prices and subsequently affects global asset prices [1][10]. - The current phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict has transitioned from pure battlefield engagement to a "fighting while negotiating" scenario, creating a precarious political balance that complicates investment decisions [1][12]. Group 2 - The report introduces two volatility indicators, OVX and VIX, as essential tools for institutional investors to navigate the current geopolitical uncertainties. OVX measures the market's expectation of oil price volatility, while VIX gauges the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index, representing economic recession risks [2][14]. - A rapid increase in OVX coupled with a lagging VIX suggests that risks are still concentrated in the energy sector and have not yet fully transmitted to global macro credit risks or earnings expectations. A simultaneous upward movement in both indicators may signal a liquidity crisis or global economic recession triggered by geopolitical risks [2][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy is categorized into four quadrants based on the relationship between OVX and VIX, providing tailored recommendations for different market conditions: 1. High OVX and fluctuating VIX suggest a local energy crisis, recommending an overweight in traditional energy and energy alternatives, particularly in sectors like power equipment and coal [3][26]. 2. High OVX and rapidly rising VIX indicate systemic recession or liquidity risks, prioritizing defensive strategies [3][26]. 3. A peak and decline in OVX with a downward-trending VIX suggest a transition to technology growth investments, recommending sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI-related themes [3][26]. 4. A declining OVX with an unusually high VIX indicates the end of geopolitical tensions, but the impact of high oil prices on the economy persists, suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and low-volatility investments [3][26].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a collective rebound with all three major indices closing higher, indicating a broad-based recovery pattern. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900-point mark, supported by stable performance from blue-chip stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index was driven by strong gains in the lithium battery and pharmaceutical sectors [5][6]. - The market experienced a surge in the innovative drug sector, with weight loss drugs and other niche themes gaining significant attention. The lithium battery supply chain saw a comprehensive breakout, and the energy metals sector continued its strong performance, with precious metals and basic chemicals also rising [5][6]. Fund Flows - The net inflow of main funds reached 31.31 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment among institutional investors. There was a slight decrease in total trading volume, which was 0 trillion yuan, down 4.7%, but it remained within a relatively high range [5][6]. - Institutional investors showed structural optimism, reallocating funds from high-position sectors like optical modules and wind power to undervalued and high-growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, energy metals, and precious metals. Core leaders in innovative drugs and lithium batteries attracted significant buying from main funds [6]. Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors followed the market's upward trend, investing in low-position sectors such as pharmaceuticals, lithium batteries, and fertilizers while reducing exposure to high-position technology themes. Overall, retail operations appeared cautious [6]. - Retail investor sentiment was recorded at 75.85%, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook among individual investors [7]. Trading Sentiment - As of March 27, 2026, 22.09% of investors increased their positions, while 19.71% reduced their holdings, with 58.20% opting to maintain their current positions. This indicates a mixed sentiment among investors regarding market direction [10][12]. - The sentiment regarding the next trading day showed that 58.13% of investors anticipated a rise, while 41.87% expected a decline, suggesting a prevailing bullish outlook [13].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing an adjustment pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening lower and showing volatility, primarily due to weak support from heavyweight sectors [5] - The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index have seen larger adjustments, with previously leading sectors such as computing power, CPO, and consumer electronics collectively realizing profits, contributing to the decline [5] Trading Activity - A total of 915 stocks rose, but there is a clear divergence with more stocks declining than rising [6] - Lithium materials stocks, including lithium mines, electrolytes, and membranes, performed well, while the power sector continued to show strength. However, popular sectors like photovoltaic equipment, insurance, wind power, national defense, and AI applications have seen adjustments [7] Capital Flow - The total trading volume in both markets decreased by 10.8%, indicating a shift towards risk aversion among investors, with funds moving from high-valuation tech growth sectors (AI, photovoltaic, telecommunications) to undervalued defensive and cyclical sectors [7] - Institutional investors are reallocating funds significantly from sectors such as electronics, computers, media, and gaming, while increasing positions in energy metals, basic chemicals, and power reform stocks [9] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are entering the market to buy low-priced, small-cap defensive stocks (batteries, lithium mines, power), while reducing exposure to high-valuation tech stocks and speculative themes [9] - The sentiment among retail investors shows that 75.85% are optimistic about the market [10] Positioning - As of March 26, 30.20% of investors increased their positions, while 15.78% reduced their holdings, with another 30.20% remaining neutral [13] - The average position held by investors indicates a significant portion is still holding onto their investments, with 51.66% fully invested and 9.82% in cash [19] Profitability - A survey indicates that 4.35% of investors have achieved over 50% profit, while 4.05% have profits between 20% to 50%. Conversely, 45.05% are facing losses of less than 20% [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.3% and returning above 3,900 points. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict may impact global energy supply, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and downstream industries. The Fed's hawkish stance and the increase in risk - aversion in the capital market may lead to a valuation decline in the previously strong technology sector of A - shares. It is recommended to balance the allocation of large - and small - cap indices for risk hedging [1] - For treasury bonds, the current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally bearish for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the oil price center has significantly shifted upwards, accelerating the expected recovery of domestic inflation data. Short - term trading will be mainly in a volatile adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.69% from 2,810.6 to 2,830.0; IF rose 1.40% from 4,388.4 to 4,450.0; IC rose 1.62% from 7,409.6 to 7,530.0; IM rose 1.22% from 7,387.2 to 7,477.4 [4] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.01% from 2,830.9 to 2,859.5; the CSI 300 rose 1.40% from 4,474.7 to 4,537.5; the CSI 500 rose 2.24% from 7,597.4 to 7,767.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.98% from 7,600.9 to 7,751.2 [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.01% from 102.48 to 102.49; TF fell 0.01% from 105.92 to 105.91; T fell 0.01% from 108.17 to 108.16; TL fell 0.05% from 111.24 to 111.18 [4] 3.2 Market News - The market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Green power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors led the gains, while oil and gas stocks adjusted. Over 4,800 stocks rose, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [5] - In terms of sectors, power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors had the highest increases, while oil and gas, photovoltaic equipment, and gas sectors declined slightly [5] - There were 4,615 rising stocks, 105 limit - up stocks, 521 falling stocks, 4 limit - down stocks, and 14 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - breaking rate of 17% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [7][8][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][15][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage industry is experiencing a surge in demand, while supply constraints are leading to significant price increases and strong expectations for future price hikes [1] - The volatility in the oil market is logically favorable for the development of renewable energy [1] - Identifying key players and trends in the industry requires continuous focus and research, rather than relying on quick stock-picking methods [1] Group 2: Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector is perceived to be entering a later stage of its cycle, with potential for further growth, as evidenced by the emergence of stocks priced over a thousand [2] - Many new technologies and concepts in the media are still in experimental stages, and expectations have largely been fulfilled, particularly regarding CPO technology which has yet to see large-scale application [2] - The industry is currently in a performance realization phase, and any concepts that do not translate into tangible results are unlikely to sustain [2]

Policy: Top-Level Design and Spatial Layout of Computing Power - The strategic position of computing power has been elevated from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with computing power first included in the new infrastructure system in 2020 [3][10] - The "East Data West Computing" project was fully launched in 2022, establishing 10 national data center clusters across eight national hub nodes [3][10] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" has classified computing power infrastructure as a major engineering project for the first time, highlighting its importance [12] Regional Layout: Strengthening Rigid Constraints and Focusing on "East Data West Computing" - Since the mid-point of the "14th Five-Year Plan," national policy has shifted from expanding cluster boundaries to enforcing rigid planning constraints, requiring computing resources to concentrate on hub nodes [4][15] - In 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) tightened restrictions, stating that no new large or super-large data centers should be built outside national hub nodes [4][15] New Proposals: Central Ideas and Local Initiatives - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of super-large intelligent computing clusters, with local governments initiating preliminary explorations concentrated in hub nodes [5][17] - The government work report introduced "computing power and electricity coordination" as a new infrastructure project, with pilot projects primarily in western provinces rich in clean energy [5][20] Domestic and International Landscape: Explosive Growth of Intelligent Computing Power - The intelligent computing power system in China is dominated by intelligent computing, accounting for over 90% of the total [6][27] - By 2025, China's intelligent computing power is expected to grow by 119% year-on-year, significantly exceeding IDC's expectations [6][27] - Internationally, as of last year, the U.S. accounted for 75% of global intelligent computing power, while China held about 15%, indicating substantial growth potential for China [6][30] Investment: Three Main Entities in Computing Power Investment - Local governments in eight sample provinces are projected to achieve a 44% year-on-year growth in planned computing power scale by 2026 [7][33] - Major telecom operators are maintaining stable computing power investment despite a decline in overall capital expenditure [7][35] - Technology giants like Alibaba and Tencent are expected to continue increasing their investment in computing power [7]

Policy Insights - The strategic position of computing power has been elevated from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with computing power first included in the new infrastructure system in 2020[3] - The "East Data West Computing" project was fully launched in 2022, establishing 10 national data center clusters across 8 key nodes[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes the national integrated computing power network as the first item among 109 major engineering projects[15] Regional Layout - Since 2023, policies have shifted from "expanding cluster boundaries" to "strengthening rigid constraints," requiring computing resources to concentrate on the "East Data West Computing" hubs[4] - By 2025, it is expected that 60% of new computing power will be concentrated in national hub areas[18] Investment Trends - The planned total computing power scale for sample provinces and cities is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year by 2026, maintaining high double-digit growth[7] - Major telecom operators' capital expenditures are declining, but computing power investments remain stable compared to last year[7] - Tech giants like Alibaba are expected to increase investments in AI infrastructure, while Tencent and ByteDance are also following suit[7] Market Growth - By 2025, China's intelligent computing power is projected to reach 1590 EFLOPS, a year-on-year increase of 119%, significantly exceeding IDC's previous forecasts[6] - As of last year, the global share of intelligent computing power was 75% in the U.S. and approximately 15% in China, indicating substantial growth potential for China[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is currently facing significant uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, with a decisive direction expected to emerge around April [2] - The article discusses three key unresolved questions regarding the Iran conflict, U.S. Federal Reserve's focus, and China's economic situation, which are crucial for market predictions [2] - The market has seen some short-term reduction in positions, particularly in previously high-performing sectors, but overall returns have reverted to the starting line since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - The article identifies sectors that may maintain independent high prosperity despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, highlighting the importance of sectors like optical communication and energy storage [3] - It suggests that sectors with upward trends and less sensitivity to oil prices, such as energy storage and domestic AIDC chains, should be prioritized for investment [3] Group 3 - The current phase is described as potentially the most pressured stage due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with a focus on the divergence between stable policy and absolute return strategies [4] - The article emphasizes that the mid-term variables are underestimated, particularly regarding inflation tolerance and the resilience of the U.S. and Chinese economies [4][5] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to have limited downside potential, with the market likely to experience oscillation and structural rotation as it absorbs external pressures [6] - Key sectors to watch include energy-related industries, defensive assets, and technology innovation sectors, with a focus on undervalued consumer segments [6] Group 5 - The market is anticipated to undergo a prolonged period of consolidation due to the impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict and changing expectations regarding interest rates [7] - The article highlights three investment directions: industries benefiting from high oil prices, stable cash flow defensive stocks, and certain growth sectors that may be undervalued [7] Group 6 - China's manufacturing sector is positioned for a value reassessment, with leading industries in coal chemical and power equipment showing resilience and potential for growth [8] - The article notes that China's energy system's completeness reduces vulnerability to external shocks and enhances its role in global energy supply [8] Group 7 - The narrative around the rise of physical assets remains intact, with a focus on energy security and the potential for China's manufacturing sector to serve as a stabilizing force in the global economy [9] - Investment recommendations include sectors related to energy, manufacturing, and consumer goods that are expected to benefit from structural changes in the market [9] Group 8 - The current market adjustment is attributed to concerns over economic stagnation and escalating conflict risks, with a potential for market recovery when sentiment is at its lowest [11] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that benefit from rising oil prices and those with clear growth prospects, particularly in technology and renewable energy [11] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain under pressure from external factors, but there are positive indicators such as proactive monetary policy and strong early economic data [12] - The article suggests a dual focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on clean energy and resource-related investments [12] Group 10 - The outlook for the market suggests a gradual stabilization post-mid-March, with a focus on both growth and value sectors, particularly in energy and technology [13] - The article encourages investment in sectors that are likely to benefit from ongoing trends in AI and traditional industries undergoing value reassessment [13] Group 11 - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and shifting interest rate expectations are impacting global markets, with a focus on stable domestic policies providing a clearer investment environment [14] - Recommended sectors include defensive strategies, energy independence, and high-growth areas such as AI and energy storage [14]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market has become somewhat numb to external risks, with a prevailing high level of cautious sentiment. It is expected that the yield on 10-year government bonds will continue to fluctuate above 1.80% in the short term, with overall smaller fluctuations in coupon strategies [2][3][13] - The stock market is experiencing unpredictable volatility, and investors are advised to remain patient. Global markets are gradually pricing in a "prolonged conflict," leading to a decline in risk appetite. Despite China's relative resilience, the A-share market may face pressure in the short term due to seasonal factors and external disturbances. The report suggests focusing on broad indices like the CSI 300 and defensive sectors such as low-volatility dividends and high-growth technology hardware to hedge against volatility risks [3][11][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.38% and the Wind All A Index falling by 4.13%. Concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East have led to increased worries about energy crises, rising inflation, and changes in monetary policy, further suppressing global risk appetite [11][14] - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a one-year return of 12.66%, exceeding the benchmark by 3.93%. The Sharpe ratio for the same period stands at 1.83, significantly higher than the benchmark's 1.19, indicating strong performance [22][24] - The global macro multi-asset model has recorded a one-year return of 11.60%, surpassing the benchmark by 2.87%. The Sharpe ratio for this model is 1.58, also exceeding the benchmark's 1.19, reflecting effective asset allocation strategies [22][28]