盈利-估值性价比
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策略点评:消费有望迎来轮动补涨
Bank of China Securities· 2025-11-13 00:42
Core Insights - The report indicates that the consumer sector is expected to experience a rotation and rebound, driven by a recovery in CPI and favorable profit-valuation ratios [2][4][9] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, the A-share market has shown an overall upward trend, with the Wind All A index rising by 27.02%. The technology sector has led this trend with a year-to-date increase of 39.12%, while the consumer sector has lagged with only a 10.85% increase [3][4] - As of November 11, 2025, the valuations of technology and cyclical sectors are at relatively high levels, with P/E ratios at 62.69% and 83.71% respectively since January 1, 2020 [4][9] Group 2: CPI and Consumer Sector - The report highlights a significant correlation between essential consumer goods performance and CPI trends. Since February 2025, CPI has shown a bottoming trend, with a notable recovery starting in July 2025, culminating in a 0.2% year-on-year increase in October 2025 [7][13] - Essential consumer goods typically exhibit stable demand, characterized by low unit prices and high consumption frequency, making price movements a key driver of market performance [7][9] Group 3: Profit-valuation Comparison - The consumer sector shows a clear advantage in terms of profit-valuation ratios, especially in sub-sectors such as medical services, airports, home appliances, personal care products, non-white liquor, and condiments, which have demonstrated high earnings growth while maintaining low historical valuations [9][11]