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基金应该一次性买入还是定投?
雪球· 2025-08-09 03:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between lump-sum investment (趸投) and systematic investment (定投), analyzing their performance under various market conditions to help investors choose the appropriate investment strategy based on their goals and risk tolerance [5][18]. Investment Results - In a bull market (July 2014 to May 2015), lump-sum investment yielded a compound return of 123.64%, while systematic investment returned 66.07% due to higher average purchase costs [10]. - In a bear market (June 2015 to January 2016), lump-sum investment had a compound return of -41.96%, whereas systematic investment returned -22.35%, benefiting from lower average costs through repeated purchases [12]. - During a 35-month oscillating market, lump-sum investment returned 3.78%, while systematic investment returned -13.36%, as most systematic purchases occurred at higher costs [13]. - In a specific oscillating market (November 2017 to April 2019), lump-sum investment returned -2.09%, while systematic investment yielded 8.45%, as the majority of systematic purchases were made at lower costs [15]. Influencing Factors - Investment goals significantly influence the choice between lump-sum and systematic investment. Lump-sum investment requires clear investment objectives and market understanding, while systematic investment offers a correction mechanism for uncertain market conditions [21][24]. - For short-term needs (零钱需求) and preservation of capital (保值需求), lump-sum investment is preferable due to lower volatility and stable returns [22]. - For growth-oriented investments (增值需求), systematic investment is more suitable as it allows for risk management through averaging costs [24]. Behavioral Aspects - Investors tend to prefer systematic investment due to loss aversion, as they are more sensitive to potential losses than equivalent gains [26]. - The concept of "mental accounting" suggests that investors may feel more comfortable with systematic investment, which reduces the frequency of monitoring and associated stress from market fluctuations [28][29]. - Risk tolerance varies between lump-sum and systematic investors, with the former requiring higher risk tolerance due to the absence of a correction mechanism [30]. Conclusion - The choice between lump-sum and systematic investment should be based on individual investment goals and personality traits. Systematic investment may be more suitable for less experienced investors, while experienced investors may prefer lump-sum investment for its potential higher returns [31][32].
概率统计机制下,LLM 推理真的「理解世界了」吗?
机器之心· 2025-06-21 06:32
Group 1 - The article discusses whether LLMs (Large Language Models) truly "understand the world" or if their reasoning is merely a form of pattern matching, highlighting the debate within the industry regarding the nature of LLM reasoning capabilities [1][3][4] - It references a paper from Apple suggesting that current reasoning models do not genuinely think, but rather engage in pattern matching, which has sparked renewed discussion in the AI community [3][4] - The article mentions that true reasoning involves understanding causal relationships, as emphasized by various researchers, indicating that LLMs lack a causal framework necessary for deep and flexible reasoning [5][6][7] Group 2 - The article explores the motivations behind enterprises increasing their spending on generative AI, noting a shift from building in-house solutions to purchasing third-party AI applications [1][2] - It outlines the evaluation framework for selecting AI models, which includes key factors that influence procurement decisions in the context of traditional software purchasing characteristics [1][2]