知识幻觉

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基金应该一次性买入还是定投?
雪球· 2025-08-09 03:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between lump-sum investment (趸投) and systematic investment (定投), analyzing their performance under various market conditions to help investors choose the appropriate investment strategy based on their goals and risk tolerance [5][18]. Investment Results - In a bull market (July 2014 to May 2015), lump-sum investment yielded a compound return of 123.64%, while systematic investment returned 66.07% due to higher average purchase costs [10]. - In a bear market (June 2015 to January 2016), lump-sum investment had a compound return of -41.96%, whereas systematic investment returned -22.35%, benefiting from lower average costs through repeated purchases [12]. - During a 35-month oscillating market, lump-sum investment returned 3.78%, while systematic investment returned -13.36%, as most systematic purchases occurred at higher costs [13]. - In a specific oscillating market (November 2017 to April 2019), lump-sum investment returned -2.09%, while systematic investment yielded 8.45%, as the majority of systematic purchases were made at lower costs [15]. Influencing Factors - Investment goals significantly influence the choice between lump-sum and systematic investment. Lump-sum investment requires clear investment objectives and market understanding, while systematic investment offers a correction mechanism for uncertain market conditions [21][24]. - For short-term needs (零钱需求) and preservation of capital (保值需求), lump-sum investment is preferable due to lower volatility and stable returns [22]. - For growth-oriented investments (增值需求), systematic investment is more suitable as it allows for risk management through averaging costs [24]. Behavioral Aspects - Investors tend to prefer systematic investment due to loss aversion, as they are more sensitive to potential losses than equivalent gains [26]. - The concept of "mental accounting" suggests that investors may feel more comfortable with systematic investment, which reduces the frequency of monitoring and associated stress from market fluctuations [28][29]. - Risk tolerance varies between lump-sum and systematic investors, with the former requiring higher risk tolerance due to the absence of a correction mechanism [30]. Conclusion - The choice between lump-sum and systematic investment should be based on individual investment goals and personality traits. Systematic investment may be more suitable for less experienced investors, while experienced investors may prefer lump-sum investment for its potential higher returns [31][32].
概率统计机制下,LLM 推理真的「理解世界了」吗?
机器之心· 2025-06-21 06:32
机器之心PRO · 会员通讯 Week 25 --- 本周为您解读 ② 个值得细品的 AI & Robotics 业内要事 --- 1. 概率统计机制下,LLM 推理真的「理解世界了」吗? 简单复读 vs 显性路径,CoT 在推理中担任何种角色?Next Token Prediction 是一种动态建模过程,CoT 或许并非简单的复 读?基于概率统计的 LLM 推理能力是简单的模式匹配,还是另一种对因果理解的表达?「实践出真知」,强化学习后训练是否 有可能打破禁锢 LLM 的「知识幻觉」? ... 2. 2025 年了,企业的 AI 采购预算都在怎么花? 企业增加生成式人工智能支出的原因是什么?在生产用例中使用多个模型的动机是什么?AI 采购为何 逐渐呈现传统软件采购的特征?为何从自行构建转向购买第三方 AI 应用?在选择 AI 模型时的评估框 架包括哪些关键因素?... 本期完整版通讯含 2 项专题解读 + 31 项 AI & Robotics 赛道要事速递,其中技术方面 12 项,国内方面 8 项,国外方面 11 项。 本期通讯总计 22632 字,可免费试读至 7% 消耗 99 微信豆即可兑换完整本期解 ...