文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 欢迎关注银行螺丝钉的公众号～ 有很多新朋友对基金投资感兴趣，但感觉无从下手，所以我写了这篇针对新手的入门帖。 方便大家了解基金投资知识和方法。 银行螺丝钉是谁？ 「银行螺丝钉」是我的笔名，从2014年开始，我在公众号以这个笔名日更投资文章，10余年来从未间断，也出版和翻译了多本基金领域的畅销书籍。 已经有数百万朋友，通过我的文章或书籍走上了基金投资之路，并获得了不错的收益。 截止到2025年8月，日更的估值表也到了2700多期。 未来，估值表还会做到10000期，差不多40年。螺丝钉也就变成一个快乐的小老头了。 也希望能跟大家一起走到那一天～ PS：如果对这个笔名的寓意感兴趣，可以点击查看《 为啥叫银行螺丝钉呢？ 》 超值福利：基金投资入门课 螺丝钉专为新手投资者打造的精品课程—— 《螺丝钉 基金投资入门课 》，限时0元解锁~ 本课程全面介绍了基金投资的必备基础知识，非常适合想学基金投资但不知从何下手的朋友们，手把手教你用基金"钱生钱"，轻松开启财富增值之旅。 长按识别下方二维码，添加课程小助手，回复「 基金入门 」，即可领取学习。 更有超值福利包，随课赠送： · 独家 ...

过去一周，全球市场延续了"股强债弱"的格局。股市整体上涨，尤其是日本和A股表现亮眼，而债券和黄金则走弱。在这样的市场背景下，我的几个核心 组合与专题组合表现总体稳健，多数跑赢了大盘，也再度验证了组合配置的有效性。 一周行情复盘 | | | 中国内容中国国工同形式的反应以及征行。及双目MP+ 文智的工程。 | | (刘川宗成义) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债市、黄金、全球股市一周行情 | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | A股 | 沪深300 | 2.84% | 中债新综合全价 | -0.56% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | -0.88% | 美国20年+国债 | -1.12% | | 港股 | 恒生指数 | 1.08% | 上海金 | -0.24% | | 美国 | 纳指100 | 0.80% | | | | 德国 | 德国DAX | 0.97% | | | | 日本 | 日经225 | 4.53% | 省心债组合 | -0.42% | | 印度 | 印度sensex30 | 0.83% | 懒人一均衡组合 | 0.53% | | 越南 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a slight decline after reaching the historical high of 3731 points in 2021, raising questions about investment opportunities and strategies for those who bought funds at that peak [1][4]. Market Performance - The three major indices in the A-share market closed lower today, with a trading volume close to 2.6 trillion yuan. Sectors such as liquor, real estate, and automobiles led the gains, while insurance and brokerage sectors saw a pullback [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that significant trading volume often leads to high volatility, and the current market remains active with no clear signs of capital withdrawal [3]. Fund Performance Since 2021 - Funds purchased at the 3731-point peak have shown varied performance, with some funds gaining over 200% since then. However, many investors are still waiting to break even [4][6]. - As of August 2025, the market has returned to around 3700 points, but many individual stocks have not recovered to their previous highs, indicating a disparity between index performance and individual stock performance [8]. Strategies for Investors - For investors whose funds have not yet returned to break-even, it is advised to maintain a rational approach and consider shifting from chasing hot stocks to a balanced allocation strategy. This includes dynamic adjustments to portfolios and setting stop-loss limits [9][12]. - Dollar-cost averaging through systematic investment plans can help reduce costs over time, especially during market downturns [9][10]. Market Outlook - The current market is characterized as a "healthy bull" market, supported by government policies and increasing capital inflows. This environment is expected to foster continued market confidence and potential upward movement [12][13]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a balanced approach, using a "core-satellite" strategy to manage risk and avoid overexposure to any single investment [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high, surpassing 3700 points, marking the highest level in the past decade since the bull market of 2015 [1][2]. Market Analysis - The recent upward trend in the A-share market has raised questions among investors about whether the market is overvalued. While it may seem expensive compared to previous bear market levels, it is essential to compare it with other investment assets [2]. - The equity risk premium indicates that stocks remain competitively priced compared to bonds, with current levels near the median of the past five years [3]. - The dividend yield of the A-share market suggests that, under conservative assumptions, the overall valuation is not significantly overvalued, remaining at the five-year average [5][6]. Valuation Insights - As of August 8, the overall dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of A-shares is 21 times, while excluding financial and oil sectors, it rises to 35 times, indicating that certain segments may be overheated, particularly the ChiNext and CSI 2000 indices, which have PE ratios around 140 times [6][12]. - The performance of small-cap stocks in the Hong Kong market also shows signs of overheating, raising concerns about potential risks for investors [7]. Historical Context - The 2015 bull market serves as a cautionary tale, where many investors were drawn to high-performing small-cap stocks, which later underperformed. In contrast, quality leading companies tend to provide sustained value creation over market cycles [10][12]. Investment Strategy - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on quality funds and maintaining liquidity to manage risks and seize opportunities during market corrections [14][15]. - For investors looking to enter the market now but concerned about future performance, a systematic investment plan (SIP) approach is suggested, allowing for disciplined investment without attempting to predict short-term market fluctuations [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the source of funds when investing, suggesting that aligning investment strategies with the nature of the funds can reduce anxiety and improve decision-making [5][6][8]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article outlines a shift in focus from "what products to buy" to "what money to allocate to which products," highlighting the common pitfalls of following media trends and making impulsive decisions [5][10]. - It suggests categorizing funds based on their source, such as "spare money," "idle funds," and "earned income," to determine appropriate investment strategies and products [9][7]. Group 2: Emotional Management - The article discusses the need to manage emotions in investing, advocating for a focus on emotional stability rather than solely on profit strategies [10][11]. - It highlights the benefits of systematic investment plans (SIPs) to alleviate emotional stress during market downturns, allowing investors to maintain a long-term perspective [12][11]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The article stresses the importance of asset allocation, particularly the role of pure bond funds as stabilizers in a portfolio, which can help manage volatility and emotional responses to market fluctuations [14][15][19]. - It recommends diversifying investments to mitigate risks, emphasizing that proper asset allocation can lead to smoother investment experiences, especially during bear markets [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows volatility with a recent pause in tariffs between China and the US, leading to a mixed performance among different stock categories. Group 1: Market Performance - The market experienced a drop during the day but rallied by the close, maintaining a rating of 4.6 stars [1] - A temporary suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US is seen as a small positive, contributing to a strong market response [2] - There is a noticeable difference in the performance of various market segments, with small-cap stocks showing weakness while large-cap stocks performed better [4] - Growth styles, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, have seen significant gains [6] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board is considered undervalued for an extended period from 2023 to 2024 [8] - By the third and fourth quarters of 2024, a substantial increase in valuations is anticipated, returning to normal levels [9] - Recent performance indicates that previously declining value and dividend stocks have rebounded [5] Group 3: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market is relatively subdued, with dividend stocks rising while technology stocks have slightly declined [10][11] - After a stronger rally in Hong Kong stocks post-Spring Festival, the A-share market has begun to gain momentum [12] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article discusses a personal pension investment strategy focusing on index funds, highlighting the importance of patience and long-term holding [45] - Recent performance of the selected pension index funds shows profitability, with the CSI A500 gaining 8% and the CSI Dividend gaining 6% over the past six months [36]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that fund investment is a suitable method for lazy investors and discusses how to effectively implement it [2][3] - It highlights the importance of preparation before starting a fund investment and the need to create a solid investment plan [2] - The article presents four different fund investment methods and encourages readers to identify which method suits them best, along with strategies for profit-taking [2] Group 2 - The content mentions that the market is not static and will oscillate between bull and bear markets, influenced by various cyclical factors [5] - It identifies three major cycles affecting the stock market: fundamental cycle, capital cycle, and sentiment cycle [5] - A notable market event is referenced, where the market index experienced a significant rebound, marking the largest weekly increase since 2008, despite minimal changes in fundamentals or capital [5]

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits, but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory services are designed to help investors achieve better returns through professional guidance [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of having advisors in various fields, such as healthcare and law, drawing parallels to fund investment [6] Group 2 - The article discusses the limitations of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in investment, highlighting that it is not an infinite process due to the finite nature of human life [8] - It estimates that an individual has approximately 4000 weeks if they live to 80 years old, but not all of this time can be allocated to investing [9] - The primary period for effective investing through DCA is between the ages of 25 and retirement, allowing for about 2000 weekly investments or 500 monthly investments for younger generations [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between lump-sum investment (趸投) and systematic investment (定投), analyzing their performance under various market conditions to help investors choose the appropriate investment strategy based on their goals and risk tolerance [5][18]. Investment Results - In a bull market (July 2014 to May 2015), lump-sum investment yielded a compound return of 123.64%, while systematic investment returned 66.07% due to higher average purchase costs [10]. - In a bear market (June 2015 to January 2016), lump-sum investment had a compound return of -41.96%, whereas systematic investment returned -22.35%, benefiting from lower average costs through repeated purchases [12]. - During a 35-month oscillating market, lump-sum investment returned 3.78%, while systematic investment returned -13.36%, as most systematic purchases occurred at higher costs [13]. - In a specific oscillating market (November 2017 to April 2019), lump-sum investment returned -2.09%, while systematic investment yielded 8.45%, as the majority of systematic purchases were made at lower costs [15]. Influencing Factors - Investment goals significantly influence the choice between lump-sum and systematic investment. Lump-sum investment requires clear investment objectives and market understanding, while systematic investment offers a correction mechanism for uncertain market conditions [21][24]. - For short-term needs (零钱需求) and preservation of capital (保值需求), lump-sum investment is preferable due to lower volatility and stable returns [22]. - For growth-oriented investments (增值需求), systematic investment is more suitable as it allows for risk management through averaging costs [24]. Behavioral Aspects - Investors tend to prefer systematic investment due to loss aversion, as they are more sensitive to potential losses than equivalent gains [26]. - The concept of "mental accounting" suggests that investors may feel more comfortable with systematic investment, which reduces the frequency of monitoring and associated stress from market fluctuations [28][29]. - Risk tolerance varies between lump-sum and systematic investors, with the former requiring higher risk tolerance due to the absence of a correction mechanism [30]. Conclusion - The choice between lump-sum and systematic investment should be based on individual investment goals and personality traits. Systematic investment may be more suitable for less experienced investors, while experienced investors may prefer lump-sum investment for its potential higher returns [31][32].

Group 1 - The article discusses the tax implications for investing in Hong Kong stocks, specifically addressing concerns about potential taxation on investment gains [5][9]. - There are two main types of taxes related to stock investments: dividend tax and capital gains tax [6][7]. - Dividend tax rates vary, with A-shares having a 20% tax for short-term investments, while long-term holdings are exempt. For Hong Kong stocks, the dividend tax is higher, at 20% for H-shares and 28% for red-chip stocks [6][7]. Group 2 - Capital gains from buying low and selling high are subject to personal income tax in many regions, but in China, there is currently a temporary exemption for individual investors trading A-shares and through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [7][10]. - Chinese tax residents who open overseas securities accounts and gain profits from investing in Hong Kong or U.S. stocks are required to pay a 20% tax on those gains [9][10]. - Investing through mutual funds in Hong Kong or U.S. stocks does not increase personal income tax liability, highlighting a potential tax advantage of fund investments [10][11].