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中国需求平台期,中长期油价至拐点
HTSC· 2025-07-01 11:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The energy structure transition is accelerating, and China's oil demand is entering a "platform period" with a projected stable demand of 760-770 million tons from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%-0.6% [14][16]. - The growth engine is shifting from "fuel-driven" to "material-driven," with the total oil demand expected to reach 800-820 million tons by 2027, growing at a rate of 0.9%-1.3% [14][34]. - The electrification in the transportation sector is significantly impacting fuel consumption, with gasoline and diesel demand expected to peak in 2024 and enter a downward trend [15][23]. - The chemical raw materials sector is becoming a new engine for oil demand growth, supported by domestic demand recovery and export-driven growth [15][16]. Summary by Sections Energy Structure Transition - China's oil demand is projected to stabilize at 760-770 million tons from 2025 to 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%-0.6% [14][34]. - The shift in growth drivers from fuel to materials is evident, with chemical raw materials expected to contribute significantly to oil demand [14][16]. Transportation Sector Impact - The electrification of vehicles is leading to a direct impact on fuel consumption, with gasoline and diesel demand expected to peak in 2024 [15][23]. - The demand for aviation fuel is expected to grow moderately due to the recovery in air travel and fleet expansion [15][16]. Chemical Raw Materials Demand - The chemical raw materials sector is expected to drive oil demand growth, with increasing domestic demand and high-end product import substitution [15][16]. - The self-sufficiency rate of olefins is improving, while the demand for aromatics is expected to grow rapidly due to structural supply-demand gaps [15][16]. Refining Industry Outlook - The refining industry is expected to benefit from the optimization of supply structures and the gradual elimination of outdated capacities [16]. - Major refining companies like Sinopec and Hengli Petrochemical are expected to gain from these trends, with long-term investment opportunities emerging as oil prices stabilize [16][34].