原油行业专家电话会 20260105 摘要 IEA 预测 2025 年石油市场过剩超 240 万桶/天，2026 年达 400 万桶/ 天，表明市场存在供过于求风险，但具体影响待观察，或将影响股票交 易策略。 新能源比例每增长 1%，石油需求或减少 30-60 万桶/天，需调整 OPEC 预测的 2026 年 140 万桶/天需求增量至 80-110 万桶/天，关注新能源 替代对石油需求的影响。 非 OPEC 国家（美国、加拿大、巴西、圭亚那）增产约 80 万桶/天，可 满足全球需求增量，OPEC 需自我约束以避免市场过剩，OPEC 政策是 关键。 委内瑞拉日产量 90 多万桶，出口 70-80 万桶，若美国接管并提高产量 将影响全球供应，但短期内快速提升产能难度大，地缘政治风险加剧市 场不确定性。 俄罗斯坚持乌克兰非武装化，欧美冻结俄资产，地缘政治紧张或致俄罗 斯石油产量受制裁影响，进而影响全球供应，关注俄乌冲突对石油市场 的影响。 Q&A 2026 年全球原油市场供需平衡的主要预测是什么？ 根据三大主要石油机构的预测，2026 年的全球原油市场供需平衡存在较大分 歧。OPEC 预计 2026 年石油需求将 ...

市交通委党组成员、副主任、新闻发言人李泽钧介绍，2025年，全市交通行业能耗总量控制预计在250 万吨左右，较"十三五"末下降约21%；营运车辆碳排放预计控制在290万吨左右，较"十三五"末下降约 30%，绿色交通转型成效明显。 据介绍，2025年中心城区绿色出行比例达76.5%，较2020年提升2.5个百分点。截至2025年年底，全市交 通行业营运车辆新能源化率超过46%。其中，巡游出租车新能源化率已达100%（不含社会保障车辆和 个体车辆）。此外，"十四五"时期，本市重点聚焦矿建材料、钢材、煤炭等大宗物资以及米、面、粮、 油等重要生产生活物资，努力构建"铁路+新能源货车"的绿色货运体系。成立运输结构调整工作推进小 组，搭建供需对接平台，为重点企业提供"一企一策"服务。区域化多式联运发展模式逐步成熟，"平谷 —莫斯科"中欧班列、"房山—塔什干"中亚班列实现常态化开行，北京—天津港的海铁联运班列发运频 次不断加密。2025年全市货物绿色运输比例达12%。李泽钧透露，力争到2030年，全市交通行业碳排放 总量不超过历史峰值，碳排放强度进一步下降，中心城区绿色出行比例达78%。 目前，北京平原地区公共桩平均服务半 ...

2026 年原油价格如何展望？20251225 摘要 地缘政治风险溢价回吐、美国对等关税政策及 OPEC 增产策略共同导致 油价下行，其中 OPEC 累计增产 205 万桶/日，但逐月累加，冲击可控。 欧盟对俄制裁虽短期扰动市场，但俄罗斯海运出口量基本持平，显示出 韧性。 预计 2026 年全球石油需求增速将低于历史平均水平，约为 90 万桶/日， 新能源替代效应增强，GDP 增长带来的石油需求弹性系数减弱。美国关 税政策和 OPEC 增产策略仍将是影响市场的重要因素。 港口虽非制裁直接对象，但因有识别受制裁船舶的能力而被纳入制裁名 单，导致油价上升和现货市场变化。2025 年运力市场大幅走高，中东 至中国运费飙升至 2.3 美元/桶，西非至中国涨至 3.9 美元/桶，年底更 高达 4-8 美元，主要因造船周期长和合规运力转向非合规市场。 2025 年全球库存总体处于低位运行，为油价提供支撑。截至 12 月，全 球商业原油库存为 31 亿桶，除中国外不到 20 亿桶，低于五年均值。柴 油库存也较低，为 5.4 亿桶，同样低于五年均值。 Q&A 2025 年全球原油市场的主要特点是什么？ 2025 年全球原油市 ...

年度报告——原油 油价寻底途中，等待供应潜力拐点 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 原油：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 年 12 25 | 2025 | 月 | 日 | [★Ta地bl缘e_冲Su突mm增a添ry]供应变数，供应受损预期暂有限 欧美扩大对俄罗斯石油企业的制裁范围，买家采购俄油出现新障 碍，但市场并未预期中长期俄罗斯供应显著下降，贸易流或在新 销售渠道建立后逐步恢复。短期制裁油买家受限导致浮仓库存上 升，买家局限性和运输效率下降约束消化速度。 和 ★全球需求维持低增速，区域间供需错配支撑柴油裂解 欧美汽柴油库存整体处于偏低水平，汽柴油需求平稳。中国实际 消费量增长持续受到新能源替代的打压，但低油价环境下，主动 补库需求预计仍有释放空间。市场对 2026 年全球需求增速维持低 增速预测，长期消费趋势变化导致增长前景改善空间受限。主要 市场柴油出口量下降及欧盟将生效的石油产品进口新规可能加 剧柴油区域间错配。 ★投资建议 展望后市，供应端仍有部分利空因素尚未充分计价，海上高库存 的转化和 OPEC+剩余闲置产能是否 ...

石油石化 2025 年 12 月 10 日 传统能源行业 2026 年年度策略报告 周期新启，攻守兼备 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 25-05 25-06 25-07 25-08 25-09 25-10 25-11 25-12 沪深300 石油石化 煤炭 证券分析师 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 年 度 策 略 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 图表1 主要大宗商品和金融资产价格涨跌幅 图表2 原油、天然气、煤炭价格走势(美元/百万英热) 资料来源： wind ，钢联数据，平安证券研究所，注：数据截至 2025.11.20 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 10 11 12 13 ...

信达证券近日发布原油周报：截至12月5日，布伦特、WTI油价分别为63.75、60.08美元/桶。本周（12 月1日-12月5日），美俄举行会晤，被袭击的里海管道石油设施恢复，上周美国原油、成品油累库，不 利市场；但会晤并未达成协议，且俄罗斯"友谊"管道遭袭击，对市场形成支撑，国际油价先跌后涨。总 体看，受地缘因素影响，本周油价震荡小幅上涨。 以下为研究报告摘要： 来源：中国能源网 【美国原油需求】截至2025年11月28日当周，美国炼厂原油加工量为1687.6万桶/天，较上周增加43.3万 桶/天，美国炼厂开工率为94.10%，较上周上升1.8pct。 【美国原油库存】截至2025年11月28日当周，美国原油总库存为8.39亿桶，较上周增加82.4万桶 （+0.10%）；战略原油库存为4.12亿桶，较上周增加25.0万桶（+0.06%）；商业原油库存为4.28亿桶， 较上周增加57.4万桶（+0.13%）；库欣地区原油库存为2129.6万桶，较上周减少45.7万桶（-2.10%）。 【美国成品油库存】截至2025年11月28日当周，美国汽油总体、车用汽油、柴油、航空煤油库存分别为 21442.2、1494. ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 原油年报：供应过剩背景下，油市有望筑底回暖 行情回顾 2024年的布伦特原油全年均价接近80美元，2025年1-11月布伦特原油均价在69美元左右，全年均价预计 略低于这一数字。这样的走势基本符合一年前我们在年报中写到的基准场景下预计油价在2025年波动区 间将较2024年下移10美元左右，在60-85美元的区间运行。 油价的高低点和全年均价表现似乎符合我们对原油的推演，但事实上从事研究工作这么多年以来2025年 的油市是经历过出现变数最多的一年。这背后离不开那个注定会被讨论很久的人， 2025年1月20日重新 上任的美国第47任总统——特朗普，2025年油价的重大波动、关键拐点处处都有着他的身影，而特朗普 在其《交易的艺术》指导下的行事风格，在全球掀起了颠覆原有秩序的大变化，国际局势剧烈调整，从 关税、制裁、军事打击等多种方式影响到了世界的各个方面，包括油价的起起伏伏。 除了特朗普通过一系列的举措影响到了油价的运行节奏。2025年主导原油重心下移的的最核心驱动是欧 佩克+的提速增产，从决定增产，到三倍速提产、再到四倍速提产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $63.75 and $60.08 per barrel, respectively, as of December 5, 2025 [2][9]. - The report highlights an increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.815 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs rising to 413 [40]. - The refining capacity utilization in the U.S. increased to 94.10%, indicating strong demand for crude oil processing [51]. - The report identifies key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 5, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.75 per barrel, up $1.37 (+2.20%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $60.08 per barrel, an increase of $1.53 (+2.61%) [26]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms increased to 368, with a net addition of 2 platforms, while floating drilling platforms rose to 130 [29]. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.815 million barrels per day, with a slight increase of 0.1 million barrels per day from the previous week [40]. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased to 16.876 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.10% [51]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of November 28, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 839 million barrels, reflecting a weekly increase of 824,000 barrels (+0.10%) [60]. Refined Oil Prices - In the North American market, as of December 5, 2025, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $97.93, $77.61, and $87.74 per barrel, respectively [82].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced a rebound, with total trading volume slightly increasing to 1.82 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, but the spending release from the TGA account will take time, and there are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] - The market lacks strong catalysts for further upward movement in the short term, with a potential acceleration in rotation speed [1] U.S.-China Relations - President Xi Jinping and President Trump had a phone call on November 24, indicating a stable and positive trend in U.S.-China relations since the Busan meeting [2] - The call reflects a shift towards a more normalized communication mechanism between the two countries, with a willingness to translate consensus into practical cooperation [2] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November [2] - This marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, supporting credit growth and economic stability [2] Energy Sector - As of the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [3] - Solar power capacity grew by 43.8% year-on-year, while wind power capacity increased by 21.4%, indicating accelerated progress in renewable energy adoption [3] - However, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 260 hours year-on-year, suggesting a continued loose power supply-demand balance [3] Stock Market Performance - On November 25, the A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.53% [4] - The communication, media, and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while defense and transportation sectors saw slight declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 1.826 trillion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin trading balance decreased [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant downward adjustment of oil prices, marking the tenth reduction of the year, which reflects broader economic trends impacting consumer spending and logistics costs [1][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - The recent oil price adjustments have shifted from "seven increases, nine decreases, six stasis" to "seven increases, ten decreases, six stasis," resulting in a cumulative reduction of 690 yuan per ton for gasoline, equating to a decrease of 0.49 yuan per liter, the lowest in nearly four years [3]. - Although the individual price drop may seem minor, the cumulative effect translates to substantial savings for logistics, with truck drivers saving 195 yuan on fuel costs for every 10,000 kilometers driven, which will ultimately affect consumer prices [3]. Factors Behind Price Decline - The persistent decline in oil prices can be attributed to three main factors: 1. The cost reduction for major oil consumers, such as airlines and logistics companies, where fuel costs can account for over 30% of expenses, leading to a 5% profit increase for every 10% drop in oil prices [4]. 2. A significant drop in international oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $63 and WTI reaching $58, indicating a global supply surplus [4]. 3. Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly progress in the Ukraine peace plan and improved US-Russia relations, which have reduced market risk premiums [4]. 4. Lower-than-expected demand, characterized by high US crude inventories and rapid production increases in Brazil and Guyana, alongside the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts affecting consumer confidence [4]. Investment Implications - Investors should be cautious of the pressure on renewable energy sources, as low oil prices may diminish the appeal of electric vehicles, necessitating a reevaluation of the cost-saving logic associated with charging [4]. - There is an opportunity to invest in anti-cyclical assets, as oil and gas stocks, despite short-term pressures, may present long-term investment opportunities for companies with stable cash flows and dividend yields exceeding 5% [4]. - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of commodities, suggesting that oil prices are nearing the breakeven point for shale oil production, indicating that OPEC+ may intervene with production cuts [5].