老铁们，今天开车路过加油站是不是发现价钱又便宜了？没错，今晚24时油价迎来年内第第十次下调！虽然加满一箱50升的92号汽油只省2.5元，刚够买个 茶叶蛋，但这点小变化背后，藏着影响咱们钱袋子的大趋势。 先看这轮调价多重要： 为啥油价跌跌不休？ 核心就三点： 对中长线投资者的启示： 1. 关注"用油大户"：航空、物流公司成本下降最直接，比如某快递巨头燃油成本占比超30%，油价每跌10%利润就能增厚5%； 今年油价调整从"七涨九跌六搁浅"变成 "七涨十跌六搁浅" ，汽油累计每吨下调690元，折算每升便宜0.49元，创下近四年新低。别看单次降幅小，累计起来 可是真金白银——货车司机跑一万公里能省下195元油费，物流成本下降最终会传导到物价上。 1. 国际油价拉胯：布伦特原油跌到63美元以下，WTI更是探至58美元，全球供应过剩压得油价喘不过气； 2. 地缘政治缓和：乌克兰和平计划取得进展，美俄关系缓和，市场风险溢价消退； 3. 需求不及预期：美国原油库存高企，巴西、圭亚那增产迅猛，而美联储推迟降息又抑制了消费信心。 2. 警惕新能源压力：油价低位运行会削弱电动车吸引力，充电省钱的逻辑要重新计算； 3. 布局抗周期资 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：俄乌和谈可能重启 [Table_T ， itle国际油价 ] 回落 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日当周，国际油价回落。本周， 周前期，美国停摆结束有助于提振需求，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯重要港口 新罗西斯克，引发俄罗斯供应中断担忧，叠加美国对俄油的制裁持续 发酵，将进一步限制出口，且特朗普明确支持对俄贸 ...

【原油价格】截至2025年11月14日当周，布伦特原油期货结算价为64.39美元/桶，较上周上升0.76美元/ 桶（+1.19%）；WTI原油期货结算价为59.39美元/桶，较上周下降0.45美元/桶（-0.75%）；俄罗斯Urals 原油现货价为65.49美元/桶，与上周持平；俄罗斯ESPO原油现货价为55.47美元/桶，较上周下降1.43美 元/桶（-2.51%）。 国信证券近日发布金属行业2026年投资策略：截至2025年11月14日当周，国际油价小幅波动。本周，前 半周，10月中国原油进口增长，美元汇率下跌，美国推进结束政府停摆的法案提振市场风险偏好，叠加 此前美国对俄罗斯的最新制裁影响正在发酵，且乌克兰继续对俄基础设施进行打击，利好支撑下，国际 油价实现上涨。周后期，欧佩克月报预测调整为供应过剩，释放看空市场信号，国际油价下挫。整体 看，本周布伦特油价较上周末实现小幅上涨，WTI则出现小幅下跌。截至本周五（11月14日），布伦 特、WTI油价分别为64.39、59.39美元/桶。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期内容提要： 【油价回顾】截至2025年11月14日当周，国际油价小幅波动。本周，前半周，10月 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Forecasts - LBMA predicts gold prices to reach $4,980 per ounce within a year, a 27% increase from current levels, driven by political tensions and investor sentiment [1] - HSBC expects gold prices to peak at $4,400 in the first half of next year, with a range of $3,600 to $4,400 anticipated for 2024 [1] - Citigroup lowers short-term gold price target to $3,800 per ounce and silver to $42 per ounce due to changing global market conditions [2] Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy Insights - Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts continued pressure on the British pound due to expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of England and concerns over economic growth [2] - Bank of America anticipates the Bank of Japan to maintain its cautious policy stance in October but expects a rate hike in January 2024, balancing high inflation with weak domestic demand [2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Trends - Huatai Securities maintains a bearish outlook on oil prices, predicting Brent crude to average $68 and $62 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to global energy transition and OPEC's production strategies [2] - CITIC Securities sees investment opportunities in the electrolytic aluminum industry, particularly in Indonesia, where alumina production is expected to grow significantly [3] - CITIC Securities also highlights a positive outlook for the humanoid robot sector, driven by market recovery and technological advancements [3][5] Group 4: Consumer Sector Developments - Galaxy Securities notes that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, sectors like cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare are expected to receive policy support to boost domestic consumption [4] - CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of high-end and technological growth in the automotive sector, with positive data from the "Golden September and Silver October" period [5]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025-2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel, considering the steady advancement of global renewable energy alternatives and the gradual lifting of OPEC's voluntary production cuts [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The predicted average Brent crude oil prices for Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 are $63, $61, and $60 per barrel respectively [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the demand for oil from producing countries will prioritize revenue over volume, indicating a potential for price stabilization [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to balance the market after temporarily sacrificing prices to gain market share, which may lead to a new round of collaborative agreements [1] - The influence of North American shale oil costs and the significant increase in supply from South America are highlighted as factors that could support the Brent oil price at $60 per barrel in the long term [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - High-dividend energy oligopolies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, along with growth in natural gas operations, are identified as potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025-2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel, considering the steady advancement of global renewable energy alternatives and the gradual lifting of OPEC's voluntary production cuts [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices in Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 is $63, $61, and $60 per barrel respectively [1] - The long-term price support is expected to be around $60 per barrel, influenced by the increased bargaining power of South American suppliers and accelerated global energy transition [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is anticipated to sacrifice short-term prices to regain market share, which may lead to a new round of collaborative agreements to balance the market [1] - The ability of high-dividend energy oligopolies to increase production and reduce costs, along with their natural gas business growth, presents potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025-2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel, considering the steady global transition to renewable energy and the gradual easing of OPEC's voluntary production cuts [1] Group 1: Price Forecasts - The predicted average Brent crude oil prices for Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 are $63, $61, and $60 per barrel respectively, influenced by seasonal demand factors in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Long-term support for a Brent oil price center around $60 per barrel is expected, driven by increased supply from South America and the acceleration of global energy transition [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is anticipated to sacrifice short-term prices to regain market share, which may lead to a new round of collaborative agreements to rebalance the market [1] - The influence of North American shale oil costs and the enhanced bargaining power of South American suppliers are critical factors in the oil market outlook [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - High-dividend energy oligopolies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, along with growth in natural gas operations, may present attractive investment opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5]. Core Views - The oil price is expected to enter a downward channel due to the end of the peak season and increased production from OPEC+, with short-term volatility anticipated due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil [1][10]. - The average Brent crude oil price is projected to be $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 prices expected to be around $63, $61, and $60 per barrel [4][65]. - High-dividend energy companies with production and cost reduction capabilities, as well as growth in natural gas business, are recommended for investment opportunities, specifically China Petroleum (A/H) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H) [4][65]. Supply Side Summary - OPEC+ is expected to release actual production increments starting Q4 2025, with global oil supply increasing by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [3][42]. - The U.S. announced new sanctions on Russian oil, affecting nearly 50% of the country's total oil exports, which may cause short-term disruptions in global oil trade [3][42]. - Despite these sanctions, the long-term impact on oil supply and demand is expected to be limited due to a generally loose supply-demand situation [3][42]. Demand Side Summary - Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down to 700,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 740,000 barrels per day, with 2026 demand growth maintained at 700,000 barrels per day [2][17]. - The end of the traditional peak season has led to a decrease in refinery throughput in major regions, with U.S. refinery utilization rates declining due to seasonal maintenance [2][26]. - China's crude oil imports fell by 4.5% month-on-month in September, indicating a slight decrease in demand [2][29]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends the following companies based on their potential for growth and dividend yield: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) - Buy with a target price of 27.49 [7][66] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938 CH) - Buy with a target price of 34.75 [7][66] - China Petroleum (601857 CH) - Hold with a target price of 10.44 [7][66] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (857 HK) - Hold with a target price of 8.80 [7][66]

Core Viewpoint - Boreton (01333) is experiencing a significant increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its role in the transition to renewable energy and the electrification of mining operations [1] Company Summary - Boreton's chairman, Chen Fangming, highlighted the ongoing global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy during the China International Mining Conference, emphasizing the integration of electrification, energy storage, and artificial intelligence in changing energy supply and usage [1] - The company offers a range of electric mining equipment, including electric loaders and electric mining trucks, with products like the BRT105E featuring a 700 kWh battery and the newly developed BRT135E designed for heavy-duty uphill mining scenarios with an 800 kWh battery [1] - Boreton's electric mining solutions are becoming increasingly cost-competitive, as more clients are opting for electrification, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven dynamics in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The mining sector is under pressure to expand production due to rising demand for resources like copper, nickel, lithium, and cobalt, which are essential for electric vehicles, energy storage, and grid upgrades [1] - The efficiency of energy usage in mining operations directly impacts profitability, making electrification a critical focus for the industry [1] - The combination of cost pressures and technological advancements positions mining as a key area for the implementation of renewable energy solutions and technological innovations [1]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]