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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250728
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the iron ore price will continue to adjust at a high level. The short - term and intraday view of iron ore 2509 is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing, which leads to the continuous adjustment of the ore price [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is also "oscillating weakly". It is advisable to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the changing supply - demand pattern and the continuous adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has changed as coking coal and coke, the leading varieties on the night session last Friday, started to adjust, causing the high - priced iron ore to continue to decline. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level. Steel mills have good profitability, and the ore demand has strong resilience, which provides some support for the ore price. - Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined as expected and there will be no short - term increase, the shipments of overseas miners have started to rise, and there is a strong expectation of an increase due to the high ore price. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase from a low level. - Currently, the optimistic sentiment is weakening, and the high - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the ore fundamentals are still good under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, so the downward space is limited. Under the guidance of industrial logic, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [3].