Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to see the price fluctuate at a high level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for iron ore 2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The core logic is that the fundamental expectation is weakening, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of the ore price. It is suggested to focus on the support at the MA20 line [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. However, steel mills' profitability is still good, and ore demand remains at a relatively high level, providing some support for the ore price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, while the shipments of overseas miners have decreased, but the reduction is not significant under high ore prices. Domestic ore production has contracted again. It is expected that the overall ore supply will increase steadily. - Currently, the resilience of ore demand is acceptable, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price. But as the supply is increasing, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory consolidation state. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, it is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience, and the ore price is operating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the shipment of overseas miners has decreased again (but the sustainability of the decrease at high ore prices needs to be tracked), and domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the ore supply continues to show a steady - to - rising trend. - On the demand side, steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore is continuously weakening with an expanding decline, but the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are weakening, and the price is undergoing high - level adjustments. It is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line and the trend of finished steel products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. The key is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides some support for the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports remains low, but it is expected to increase according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the supply of ore is expected to gradually increase. With the supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are continuously weakening, and combined with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report (August 1, 2025) - Report Author: Tu Weihua - Author's Position: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Author's Qualification: F3060359 (Industry Qualification), Z0011688 (Investment Consulting) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern is weakening. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. Although steel mills' profitability is good and there is still demand resilience to support the ore price, the overall ore supply is expected to increase. Therefore, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished products [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weak shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is also weak shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening and the ore price continues to adjust [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. The relatively positive factor is that steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still demand resilience to support the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports is currently low, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound according to the shipping schedule. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high ore prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the ore supply will increase. With demand showing weakness and supply increasing, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening. Coupled with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished products [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has started to decline. However, steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still resilience in ore demand, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The supply of ore is expected to increase due to the continuous increase in overseas miners' shipments and the recovery of domestic ore production. The ore price has stopped falling and rebounded again, but the market fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and ore terminal consumption is falling. But steel mills' good profitability provides support for ore demand. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, but it will rebound according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is expected to rise. The ore price has rebounded due to demand resilience and improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward drive is limited. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of finished products should be noted [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the demand has good resilience and the ore price oscillates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the off - season, steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined from a high level. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore has resilience, supporting the ore price. The arrival at domestic ports has been decreasing, but the reduction space is limited. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and they are more active in shipping at high prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply of ore is expected to increase. The demand resilience can support the ore price, but the expected increase in supply, the changing fundamentals of the ore market, and the weakening market sentiment will lead to the high - level oscillatory adjustment of the ore price [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the iron ore price will continue to adjust at a high level. The short - term and intraday view of iron ore 2509 is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing, which leads to the continuous adjustment of the ore price [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is also "oscillating weakly". It is advisable to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the changing supply - demand pattern and the continuous adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has changed as coking coal and coke, the leading varieties on the night session last Friday, started to adjust, causing the high - priced iron ore to continue to decline. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level. Steel mills have good profitability, and the ore demand has strong resilience, which provides some support for the ore price. - Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined as expected and there will be no short - term increase, the shipments of overseas miners have started to rise, and there is a strong expectation of an increase due to the high ore price. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase from a low level. - Currently, the optimistic sentiment is weakening, and the high - valued ore price is oscillating downward. The relatively positive factor is that the ore fundamentals are still good under the current situation of weak supply and strong demand, so the downward space is limited. Under the guidance of industrial logic, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support level of MA10. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the price is adjusting with fluctuations [1]. - The optimistic sentiment is weakening, the high - valued iron ore price is falling with fluctuations, but the fundamentals are still acceptable under the situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space may be limited. The performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly bullish. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is changing, and the price is adjusting with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore has certain resilience, which supports the price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has dropped significantly, while the shipment of overseas miners has started to rise. According to the shipping schedule, the domestic arrival will still decrease, and the short - term supply of overseas ore is difficult to increase. The domestic ore production is rising steadily, and the overall supply remains at a relatively low level [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market sentiment is weakening, and the high - valued ore price has declined. However, due to the supply - weak and demand - increasing situation, the downside space is limited, and the ore price is expected to enter a high - level oscillatory adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3]. - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all suggested to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the iron ore 2509 contract are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weakening respectively. The core logic is that the market sentiment is weakening, and the ore price is undergoing oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment in the iron ore market is weakening, causing the high - valued ore price to decline. But the supply - demand pattern has improved, with inventory depletion. Steel mills are actively producing, terminal ore consumption has increased, and the profitability of steel mills is good, resulting in strong ore demand, which supports the ore price [3]. - Domestic port arrivals have decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, based on shipping schedules, short - term domestic arrivals will still decline, indicating a contraction in overseas ore supply. Meanwhile, domestic ore production has stabilized, leading to low overall ore supply [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - term trends of iron ore 2509. In the short term, it is expected to rise, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile and moderately strong state. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is good, and the price will run strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a volatile and moderately strong state, and the intraday view is also a volatile and moderately strong state. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good, and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore have improved. The inventory has been depleted again. During the off - season, steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. The profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore is acceptable, which strongly supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, it is difficult to increase the short - term domestic arrivals according to the shipping schedule. The overseas ore supply is low, and the domestic ore production is stable. The ore supply has shrunk in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good. Coupled with the continued optimistic market sentiment, the ore price remains high and runs strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3].