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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250807
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:24
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 8 月 7 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 基本面预期走弱,矿价震荡调整 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面有所走弱,钢厂生产趋弱,矿石终端消耗持续下降,但目前钢厂盈利状况依旧良好, 矿石需求维持相对高位,给予矿价一定支撑。不过,国内港口矿石到货低位回升,而海外矿商发运迎 来下降,但高矿价下减量持续不强,相应的内矿生产再度收缩,预计矿石整体供应将稳中有升。目前 来看, ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250805
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:43
◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可,矿价高位运行 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 8 月 5 日) 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化,钢厂生产趋弱,矿石终端消耗持续走弱,且降幅有所扩大,但钢厂盈 利状况表现良好,需求韧性尚存,给予矿价支撑。与此同时,国内港口矿石到货大幅回升,而海外矿 商发运则是再度减量,但高矿价下减量持续待跟踪,而内矿生产表现弱稳,矿石供应延续稳中有升态 势。总 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250804
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:00
说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 8 月 4 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 基本面在走弱,矿价高位调整 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化,钢厂生产趋弱,矿石终端消耗持续下行,但钢厂盈利状况良好,需求 韧性尚存,给予矿价一定支撑。不过,国内港口到货虽维持低位,但按船期推算后续到货将回升,而 高矿价下海外矿商发运积极,相对利好则是内矿生产弱稳,预计矿石供应逐步增加。目前来看,矿石 需求 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250801
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:09
◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱,矿价延续调整 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 8 月 1 日) 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱,钢厂生产趋弱,矿石终端消耗持续回落,相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况 良好,需求韧性尚存,给予矿价支撑。与此同时,国内港口到货偏低,但按船期推算到货将触底回升, 且高矿价下海外矿商发运积极,而内矿生产弱稳,整体矿石供应将回升。目前来看,矿石需求 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:38
| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳,矿价高位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 7 月 30 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化,钢厂生产弱稳,矿石终端消耗开始回落,但目前钢厂盈利状况较好, 矿石需求韧性尚存,给予矿价支撑。不过,国内港口到货环比再降,而按船期推算后续到货将触底回 升,多因海外矿商发运持续回升,且高矿价下发运积极,叠加内矿生产恢复,矿石供应预期回升。总 之,矿石 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:45
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 7 月 29 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 需求韧性尚可,矿价高位震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化,淡季钢厂生产趋稳,矿石终端消耗高位小幅回落,而钢厂盈利状况表 现良好,矿石需求韧性尚存,继续支撑矿价。与此同时,国内港口到货持续减量,但减量空间有限, 而海 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250728
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:42
说明: ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局在变,矿价延续调整 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 7 月 28 日) 公司地址:浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线:400 618 1199 上周五夜盘领涨品种双焦开启调整,市场情绪迎来变化,高位矿价延续回落,且铁矿石供需格局 在变,钢厂生产弱稳,矿石终端消耗有所回落,但依旧处于高位,且钢厂盈利状况良好,矿石需 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250725
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:14
说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025 年 7 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局在变,矿价震荡调整 | ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化,钢厂生产弱稳,矿石终端消耗小幅回落,但钢厂盈利状况良好,矿石 需求韧性尚可,继续给予矿价一定支撑。与此同时,国内港口到货大幅回落,但海外矿商发运开始回 升,按船期推算国内到货仍将减量,海外矿石短期供应难回升,而内矿生产稳中有升,矿石供应维持 相对低位。总之,乐观情绪趋弱,高估值矿价震荡回落,但供弱需强局面 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250724
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market sentiment is weakening, and the high - valued ore price has declined. However, due to the supply - weak and demand - increasing situation, the downside space is limited, and the ore price is expected to enter a high - level oscillatory adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3]. - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all suggested to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the iron ore 2509 contract are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weakening respectively. The core logic is that the market sentiment is weakening, and the ore price is undergoing oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment in the iron ore market is weakening, causing the high - valued ore price to decline. But the supply - demand pattern has improved, with inventory depletion. Steel mills are actively producing, terminal ore consumption has increased, and the profitability of steel mills is good, resulting in strong ore demand, which supports the ore price [3]. - Domestic port arrivals have decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, based on shipping schedules, short - term domestic arrivals will still decline, indicating a contraction in overseas ore supply. Meanwhile, domestic ore production has stabilized, leading to low overall ore supply [3].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250723
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - term trends of iron ore 2509. In the short term, it is expected to rise, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile and moderately strong state. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is good, and the price will run strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a volatile and moderately strong state, and the intraday view is also a volatile and moderately strong state. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good, and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore have improved. The inventory has been depleted again. During the off - season, steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. The profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore is acceptable, which strongly supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, it is difficult to increase the short - term domestic arrivals according to the shipping schedule. The overseas ore supply is low, and the domestic ore production is stable. The ore supply has shrunk in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good. Coupled with the continued optimistic market sentiment, the ore price remains high and runs strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3].