矿价高位调整

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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250804
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:00
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are weakening, and the price is undergoing high - level adjustments. It is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line and the trend of finished steel products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. The key is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides some support for the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports remains low, but it is expected to increase according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the supply of ore is expected to gradually increase. With the supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are continuously weakening, and combined with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation [2].