投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面表现平稳，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，矿石终端消耗高位趋稳运行，需求韧性尚可，给与矿价支撑，但钢厂 利润在收缩，且限产扰动不断，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货再度回落，但海外矿商发运 高位趋稳，按船期推算后续到货将回升，相应的内矿供应偏弱，整体矿石供应相对平稳。目前来看， 矿 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore is running steadily at a high level. This week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills increased slightly week - on - week, while the daily consumption of imported ore decreased slightly, but overall it remained at a high level. The demand showed good resilience, but the profits of steel mills are shrinking, and production restrictions are frequent, weakening the positive effects. - The port arrivals of iron ore have rebounded as expected, and the shipments from miners have increased significantly to the highest level this year. Overseas ore supply has rebounded significantly, while domestic ore supply is weakly stable. Overall, the ore supply has rebounded as expected. - In summary, the high - level operation of ore demand provides support for ore prices, but due to the shrinking profits of steel mills and frequent production restrictions, the positive effects are weakening. On the contrary, the supply has returned to a high level, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the over - valued ore prices continue to face pressure and fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,845.20, with a week - on - week increase of 25.93, a month - to - date increase of 187.30, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,187.32. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 9,065.47, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.87, a month - to - date increase of 53.38, and a year - on - year increase of 65.41. [1] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals were 2,476.60, with a week - on - week increase of 94.70, a month - to - date increase of 236.10, and a year - on - year increase of 128.80. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments were 3,406.60, with a week - on - week increase of 359.90, a month - to - date increase of 205.70, and a year - on - year increase of 240.50. [1] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 240.75, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09, a month - to - date increase of 0.04, and a year - on - year increase of 16.29. - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume was 325.74, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.93, a month - to - date increase of 23.03, and a year - on - year increase of 23.11. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 297.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68, a month - to - date decrease of 1.62, and a year - on - year increase of 21.76. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 106.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.88, a month - to - date increase of 17.70, and a year - on - year increase of 21.58. [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗高位平稳运行，需求韧性尚可，但钢 厂利润在收缩，且限产扰动不断，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，港口到货如期回升，且矿商发运大幅 增加并升至年内高位，海外矿石供应显著回升，而内矿供应弱稳运行，整体矿石供应如期回升。总 之，矿石需求高位运行，韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但钢厂利润在收缩，且限产扰动不断，利 好效应趋弱，相反供应重回高位，矿石基本面在走弱，高估值矿价继续承压、震荡调整，关注成材 表现情况。 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, the increase in costs provides some downward resistance. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.44%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the concerns about hot-rolled coil demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not substantially improved. The relatively positive factors are the increase in costs and production restrictions. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.98%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore is high, and the growth space of demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore have not substantially improved, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price is not strong. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In July 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5863.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [6]. - The "Guiding Opinions" require localities to give priority to implementing projects with certain returns, and ensure the completion of projects. For projects close to completion, construction should be accelerated, acceptance and final accounts should be carried out in a timely manner, and they should be put into operation as soon as possible. For slowly progressing projects, measures such as reducing the implementation scale, optimizing construction standards, and adjusting supporting construction content should be studied to reduce unnecessary construction costs. In principle, projects that have not started construction before the end of 2024 should no longer be implemented in the PPP stock project model [7]. - As of August 21, 6 listed steel companies announced their performance in the first half of 2025, with a total operating income of 198.591 billion yuan and a total net profit of 6.755 billion yuan. All 6 companies were profitable [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3270 yuan, 3280 yuan, and 3342 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3420 yuan, 3370 yuan, and 3476 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3020 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2120 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 150 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1150 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 9.18 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.73 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 101.26 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 100.60 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3121 yuan, with a decline of 0.03%, the highest price was 3145 yuan, the lowest price was 3115 yuan, the trading volume was 1125179 lots, a decrease of 192195 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1458111 lots, a decrease of 65281 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3375 yuan, with a decline of 0.44%, the highest price was 3417 yuan, the lowest price was 3372 yuan, the trading volume was 572544 lots, a decrease of 46710 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1047482 lots, a decrease of 76410 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 772.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.98%, the highest price was 780.0 yuan, the lowest price was 770.0 yuan, the trading volume was 281755 lots, a decrease of 7611 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 451574 lots, an increase of 11185 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (port and steel mill), and steel mill production situation (blast furnace开工率, electric furnace开工率, etc.) [15][20][32]. Market Outlook - The supply-demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.73 tons. Demand has weakened, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of hot-rolled coil has improved. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 0.70 tons. Demand has improved, but the concerns about demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. However, the supply of ore is increasing. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of iron ore will continue to fluctuate at a high level [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价延续调整 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗高位小幅回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给 予矿价支撑，但钢厂利润不断收缩，增量空间有限，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗有所回升，需求维持相对高位，韧性表 现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但需注意的是钢厂利润不断收缩。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货再度回落， 而矿商发运也小幅下降，短期海外矿石供应偏低，但高矿价下持续性存疑，相应的内矿供应增加，整 体矿石供 ...

公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,819.27 107.00 13,657.90 161.37 15,035.10 -1,215.83 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,136.34 123.00 9,012.09 124.25 9,069.98 66.36 45港铁矿石到货量 2,381.90 -125.90 2,240.50 141.40 2,354.70 27.20 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,046.70 -15.10 3,200.90 -154.20 2,964.70 82.00 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 240.66 0.34 240.71 -0.05 228.77 11.89 45港日均疏港量 334.67 12.82 302.71 31.96 321.82 12.85 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 298.52 0.37 299.46 -0.94 280.49 18.03 主港铁矿成交周均值 115.33 19.97 88.80 26.53 83.98 31.35 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局良好，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局相对良好，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续减量，但钢厂盈利状况良好，需求 维持相对高位，韧性表现尚可，继续给予矿价支撑。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货再度回落，且海外 矿商发运下降，叠加内矿生产趋弱，矿石供应表现偏弱。目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面平稳 运行 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续回落，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比再 降，但钢厂盈利状况依旧良好，整体降幅不大，整体维持相对高位，给予矿价支撑，后续需重点关注钢厂限产冲击。与此同 时，国内港口铁矿石到货如期回升，但海外矿商发运则是有所回落，高矿价减量持续存疑，而内矿供应表现平稳，整体矿石 供应稳中有升。目前来看，铁矿石需求边际走弱，而供应在回升，矿市基本面延续弱势，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况良好， 需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，预计矿价走势延续震荡整理态势，重点关注钢厂限产执行情况。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,712.27 54.37 13,657.90 54.37 15,043.96 -1,331.69 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,013.34 1.25 9,012.09 1.25 9,045.87 -32 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱，矿价震荡调整 | 说明： 观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局延续弱势，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续回落，但钢厂利润状况较好，需求 高位回落幅度有限，继续给予矿价支撑，需谨防限产扰动带来冲击。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货如 期回升，但海外矿商发运则是下降，高矿价下减量持续存疑，相应的内矿生产趋稳，矿石供应料 ...