投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 3 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未好转，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局偏弱运行，矿石终端消耗持续回升，且节后钢厂补库，矿石需求有所改善，但钢 厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市产业矛盾在累积，改善空间受限。与此同时，国内港口到货虽低位运行，而 矿商发运仍维持高位，按船期推算后续到货将回升，海外矿石供应增加，相应地内矿生产在恢复，矿 石供应重回高 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 17,091.96 145.64 17,022.26 69.70 15,367.68 1,724.28 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,085.10 -1,618.83 9,968.59 -883.49 9,464.74 -379.64 国内45港铁矿石到货量 2,152.40 -265.60 2,530.00 -377.60 1,762.00 390.40 全球铁矿石发运量 3,320.90 631.00 2,978.34 342.56 3,447.30 -126.40 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 233.28 2.79 227.98 5.30 228.44 4.84 45港日均疏港量 298.48 -52.71 332.31 -33.83 268.67 29.81 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 288.71 3.17 280.96 7.75 285.17 3.54 主港铁矿成交周均值 60.23 25.41 90.66 -30.43 67.93 -7.70 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20260227） 库 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 现实格局不佳，矿价承压走弱 | 假期 SGX 铁矿石掉期走弱，且现货价格同样下行，而铁矿石供需格局表现偏弱，钢厂生产平稳， 矿石终端消耗迎来回升，节前样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比增加，但钢厂盈利状况不佳， 且钢市矛盾不断累积，难以承接持续提产，需求增量空间受限，提振效应不强。与此同时，假期国内 港 ...

作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 免责条款 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，节前钢厂有所复产，矿石终端消耗持续回升，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比增加，增幅有所 扩大，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市矛盾不断累积，难以承接持续提产，矿石需求增量空间将受限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口 到货回落，且飓风扰动下矿商发运大幅下降，短期海外矿石供应收缩，但持续性不强，相应的内矿生产弱稳，高库存局面下供应压力未缓 解。总之，铁矿石需求迎改善，而供应短期收缩，矿石基本面有所变化，但改善持续性存疑，现实格局相对弱稳运行，预计矿价延续低位 震荡运行，假期关注成材累库和矿山发运情况。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the recent price adjustment, iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level, and with the dual support of steel mills' phased resumption after the holiday and expectations of macro policy strengthening, further downside is limited. However, throughout the year, iron ore is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, with price levels likely to decline further [1][10]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since the end of January, iron ore prices have declined primarily due to two reasons: changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity easing after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman, and cautious raw material restocking by steel mills, with iron ore inventories at 247 steel mills down by 5.2968 million tons year-on-year [2]. - As of February 11, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, indicating limited further downside in the current price position [1][10]. Group 2: Production and Inventory Insights - Despite the impact of the Baosteel incident, the average daily pig iron output among 247 steel mills has remained between 2.27 million and 2.29 million tons this year, suggesting a potential for phased production increases as steel mills aim to meet annual production targets [3]. - With low iron ore inventories at steel mills, there is a high likelihood of increased restocking efforts once production resumes after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low supply season for iron ore, with historical data indicating a decrease in shipments by 9.5 to 10 million tons compared to the previous quarter. However, due to fewer extreme weather events this winter and a later Spring Festival, January's global iron ore shipments remained high [6]. - The global iron ore shipment volume was 25.353 million tons in the first week of February, down by 5.593 million tons week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand mismatch in the weeks following the holiday [7]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Context - Expectations for policy strengthening remain, with the Central Economic Work Conference prioritizing domestic demand expansion as a key economic task for 2026. The People's Bank of China has already implemented a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy rates among other measures, with further policy support anticipated around the National People's Congress [8]. - The resilience of exports and gradual recovery in manufacturing demand may provide a boost to iron ore demand [8]. Group 5: Valuation and Long-term Projections - Current iron ore spot prices are around 100 USD/ton, which is near a five-year low. The profit margin for long-process rebar has widened to 126 yuan/ton compared to iron ore import profits, indicating that both absolute and relative valuations are at a neutral to low level [9]. - In the medium to long term, iron ore is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, with supply increases primarily from emerging mines and major producers. It is projected that iron ore supply will increase by 40 to 45 million tons by 2026, with a significant contribution from the Simandou project [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，节前钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，但钢市产业矛盾持续累 积，短期需求改善力度受限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货量回落，而飓风扰动下矿商发 运大幅下降，海外矿石供应迎来收缩，但库存高企局面下供应压力缓解有限。总之，天气因素扰动下 海外矿石供 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但增幅有限，且钢市产业矛 盾在累积，需求改善力度有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货量回落，且飓风扰动下矿商 发运大幅下降，海外矿石供应短期收缩，库存高企局面下供应压力缓解有限。总之，天气因素扰动下 海外矿石供应短期收缩，而需求则是弱稳运行，铁矿石基本面未见改善，高库存格局下矿价仍将承压 运行，关注钢价表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory trend, with the supply - demand pattern weakening and the ore price remaining volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillatory", and the intraday trend is "oscillatory and weak". The overall view is that it will oscillate, with the core logic being the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of the oscillatory trend of the ore price [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed little. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore is at a low level. The industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and ore demand remains weak. Although domestic port arrivals have continued to decline, miner shipments are stabilizing, and the subsequent arrival reduction is limited according to the shipping schedule. Domestic ore supply is stable, and with high inventory, supply pressure still exists. The positive factor is pre - holiday replenishment. Overall, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill replenishment [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The inventory continues to rise, steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore runs smoothly. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, and steel mills mainly replenish inventory normally before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for ore will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. The reduction of port arrivals is limited according to the shipping schedule, domestic ore supply is stable, and combined with the high inventory, the supply pressure of ore remains. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has rebounded in shock. However, the supply pressure of ore remains under the high - inventory situation, and the ore demand is weak. The fundamentals of ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a volatile operation under the game of long - and short - term factors. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of steel mills [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,022.26, with a week - on - week increase of 255.73, a monthly increase of 1,051.37 compared with the end of last month, and a year - on - year increase of 2,019.30 compared with the same period (lunar calendar). 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,968.59, with a week - on - week increase of 579.77, a monthly increase of 1,022.05, and a year - on - year decrease of 105.49 [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,530.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 129.70, a monthly decrease of 71.40, and a year - on - year decrease of 304.30. The global iron ore shipment volume is 2,978.30, with a week - on - week increase of 48.50, a monthly decrease of 698.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 133.80 [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 227.98, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12, a monthly increase of 0.55, and a year - on - year increase of 3.61. The 45 - port average daily ore - clearing volume is 332.31, with a week - on - week increase of 21.58, a monthly increase of 7.10, and a year - on - year increase of 6.04. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 280.96, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.94, a monthly increase of 0.29, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 90.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.87, a monthly increase of 9.97, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 [1]