矿石供需平衡

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宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the demand has good resilience and the ore price oscillates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the off - season, steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined from a high level. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore has resilience, supporting the ore price. The arrival at domestic ports has been decreasing, but the reduction space is limited. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and they are more active in shipping at high prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply of ore is expected to increase. The demand resilience can support the ore price, but the expected increase in supply, the changing fundamentals of the ore market, and the weakening market sentiment will lead to the high - level oscillatory adjustment of the ore price [2]