Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized ensuring the supply of important livelihood commodities, and coal policies focus on stable production, supply, and clean utilization [7]. - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 9 - 10, and most investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in 2026, mainly in the first half [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the red, and the December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon's main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Supply is expected to decline in December due to losses and no new capacity. Demand will continue to fall as the country maintains the policy of reducing crude steel output. The ferrosilicon 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: The Politburo meeting focused on livelihood and coal policies, and the Fed cut interest rates [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are for rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 440 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main contract is bearish [7]. - Strategy: Supply will decline in December, demand will continue to fall, and the 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 439,900 lots, a decrease of 21,400 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 42, an increase of 8. The warehouse receipt quantity was 13,082, a decrease of 506. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [13][19] - Spot Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon basis was - 350, a decrease of 26 points [25] 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - demand: The national 136 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization rate was 32.44%, a decrease of 1.36%. The daily output was 15,180 tons, a decrease of 2.32%. The five - major steel grades' ferrosilicon weekly demand was 18,048 tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 106,300 tons [29] - Inventory: The national 60 - enterprise sample's inventory was 77,840 tons, an increase of 7.16%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [34] - Upstream: As of December 8, the Ningxia electricity price increased by 2.53%, and the Inner Mongolia electricity price remained unchanged. As of December 11, the domestic market price of semi - coke remained unchanged [38] - Profit: As of December 12, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon production cost was 5564 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20%, and the profit was - 444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.04%. Ningxia's production cost was 5665 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the profit was - 565 yuan/ton, unchanged [42] - Downstream: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons week - on - week and 32,700 tons year - on - year. From January to October, China's ferrosilicon exports decreased by 8.85% year - on - year [49]