Core Insights - The global energy transition is progressing but is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals, with net-zero emissions by 2050 deemed unrealistic, leading to an expected temperature rise of 2.2°C by the end of the century [1][3][8] - Renewable energy is becoming the primary driver of the energy structure, with solar and wind expected to dominate global electricity generation by 2060 [1][10] - Fossil fuel consumption is projected to decline significantly, with coal demand experiencing the most substantial drop [2][10] Energy Structure - By 2060, the energy mix is expected to shift to a 50:50 ratio between fossil and non-fossil energy sources, with fossil fuels decreasing from 79% to 36% [2][10] - Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, will account for 47% and 32% of global electricity, respectively, by 2060, with electricity demand increasing by 140% from current levels [1][2] - Nuclear energy is anticipated to grow by 150% in installed capacity by 2060, contributing 9% to electricity supply [1][2] Regional Transition Paths - China is leading in renewable energy installations and clean technology exports, while Europe is focusing on balancing climate action with industrial competitiveness [2][10] - North America is experiencing a delay in emissions reduction due to policy shifts, with a projected five-year setback in the transition [2][10] - Developing regions, such as the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia, are seeing rapid growth in energy demand and renewable installations, although fossil fuels will still play a role in energy security for some time [2][10] Decarbonization Challenges - Hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, aviation, and shipping are progressing slowly, relying on hydrogen and carbon capture technologies, which are currently expensive and policy-dependent [2][10] - The deployment of these technologies is not expected to scale significantly until after 2040, with hydrogen projected to account for 6% of energy demand by 2060 and CCS capturing 16% of global CO2 emissions [2][10] Electricity System Constraints - The electricity system is facing challenges due to lagging grid infrastructure, which could hinder the growth of renewable energy sources [2][10] - In Europe, resolving grid bottlenecks could enhance solar and wind capacity significantly by 2035 [2][10] - The demand for electricity from AI data centers is expected to grow rapidly, potentially accounting for 3% of global electricity by 2040, although efficiency improvements may moderate this growth over time [2][10]