他强调，仅从供给侧理解规模经济是不充分的。规模优势能否转化为现实增长，关键在于需求端是否能 够形成有效匹配。历史经验表明，通过限制竞争、压缩供给来应对经济下行，并不能从根本上解决问 题，反而可能通过抑制收入和预期，进一步削弱需求。 通过限制竞争、压缩供给来应对经济下行，反而可能通过抑制收入和预期，进一步削弱需求。 在中国经济结构转型与内外部环境变化交织的背景下，如何理解产业优势、需求约束与宏观政策取向， 成为当前宏观讨论的重要议题。在1月10日举办的"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，中金公司首 席经济学家、论坛副理事长彭文生发表主旨演讲时表示，中国制造业尤其是绿色产业和人工智能，具备 典型的规模经济特征。 彭文生表示，自工业革命以来，规模经济始终是推动经济长期增长的核心载体之一。规模并非静态概 念，而是与技术进步和创新活动相互强化、持续演化的"动态规模经济"。在这一过程中，规模扩张通过 降低成本、提高效率促进技术进步，而技术进步又在新的基础上支撑更大规模的生产与应用，二者形成 正向循环，构成现代经济增长的重要动力。 他认为，当前中国经济面临的问题，并非单一的金融或产业问题，而是金融周期、需求不足与收入 ...

智通财经APP获悉，对能源转型的支持者而言，2025年的挑战可谓接踵而至：美国清洁能源政策大幅倒退、欧洲风电遭遇"无风 季"、企业风电投资收缩、煤电产能强势反弹。但这一年同样孕育着希望——全球电池储能装机创历史新高、数十个国家太阳能发 电占比突破纪录、主要汽车市场电动车销量持续攀升。 下文将通过八张图表，梳理2025年影响全球能源转型进程的关键里程碑与发展动态，并列出2026年及未来需要重点关注的核心数 据指标。 中国领跑清洁能源赛道 中国持续领跑全球清洁能源发展，在核电、光伏、风电及生物质能装机规模上稳居世界首位。清洁电力生产即将实现连续第七年 强劲增长，能源智库Ember数据显示，2025年前11个月中国清洁发电量同比增长15.4%。 2025年，清洁能源发电量占全国电网供电总量的比例将首次突破40%，而化石能源发电占比则降至历史最低点。 尽管化石能源仍是中国电力系统的核心支柱，但自2019年以来，清洁能源发电量的增速已达到化石能源发电量增速的四倍以上。 未来十余年，随着中国持续扩张光伏、风电、核电及储能装机规模，清洁能源在全国发电结构中的占比有望进一步提升。 中国清洁技术出海同样势不可挡。根据Ember ...

【环球时报驻日本特约记者 王军 环球时报记者 倪浩 环球时报特约记者 李静】 编者的话： 据路透社12 月24日报道，有日本官员表示，该国政府决定停止对大型光伏项目进行财政支持，以"保护自然生态环 境、保障公共安全并维护景观风貌"。这是日本在能源政策领域开倒车的最新案例。多年来，日本一直 因为减排目标缩水以及对化石燃料的"恋恋不舍"屡次成为国际社会批评的焦点。不久前，日本又一次获 得了象征着消极应对气候危机的"化石奖"。日本在能源转型议题上展现出的保守与拖延，不仅是技术或 经济选择问题，更是其政治意愿、利益博弈与发展理念的深刻反映。有观点认为，在全球气候危机日益 加剧之时，日本若不能从根本上调整其能源战略思维，那么它不仅将难以兑现国际气候承诺，更可能彻 底辜负从《京都议定书》时代便承载的期待。 " 与全球减排的努力背道而驰 " 路透社日前报道称，日本计划从2027财年起停止对大型光伏项目的补贴。有分析认为，在海上风电项目 面临不确定性、开发商退出的背景下，光伏项目的潜在放缓可能进一步抑制日本可再生能源的增长。这 给全球第五大二氧化碳排放国日本的减排目标增添了新的挑战。 日本能源转型的拖延与滞后，在其电力来源构 ...

郑栅洁指出，2025年，全国能源系统深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要指示批示精神，高标准践行能源安全新战略，能源工作取得新进展新成效，有力支撑保 障经济社会发展，"十四五"能源规划主要目标任务即将顺利完成。2026年，要深刻学习领会党中央决策部署，准确把握能源安全供应、能源领域降碳、能源 科技创新、能源制度体系变革等方面的新挑战新任务新要求，锚定2030年初步建成新型能源体系、推进能源强国建设的目标任务，平衡好经济发展与能源总 量结构的关系，以能源强国建设支撑中国式现代化;平衡好能源总体规模与区域布局的关系，加强能源工作的系统性协调性;平衡好能源供应保障与节能降碳 的关系，推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型;平衡好能源国内自主与国际合作的关系，有效维护能源战略安全;平衡好能源科技创新与能源产业转型升级的关 系，培育提升能源创新发展新优势，推动能源工作高质量发展，有力支撑2030年前如期实现碳达峰的目标。 王宏志指出，党中央、国务院高度重视能源工作，指引推动2025年能源工作取得新成效。党的二十届四中全会作出建设能源强国的战略擘画，提出初步建成 新型能源体系的规划目标，中央经济工作会议强调要制定能源强国建设规划纲要。站在 ...

"如果日本等发达国家执意扩大化石燃料生产与投资，全球南方国家的能源转型进程或将严重受 挫。"《化石燃料不扩散条约》倡议组织研究政策主管阿米拉·萨瓦斯表示，全球气候治理需要实际行 动，而非敷衍塞责的缓兵之计。日本若持续在能源转型上慢半拍，不仅会损害自身国际信誉，更将拖累 全球气候治理的整体进程。 不久前，在巴西贝伦举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会上，日本因在摆脱化石燃 料依赖方面缺乏实质进展，再度被国际环保组织"气候行动网络"授予象征气候治理消极态度的"化石 奖"。长期以来，日本在环保领域以"技术领先""理念成熟"自居，但在全球节能减排浪潮加速、绿色转 型已成共识的当下，日本的实际行动与其塑造的国际形象形成鲜明反差，其气候治理表现持续引发国际 社会质疑。 减排目标缩水，是日本绿色转型滞后的突出表现。日本政府最新修订的《地球温暖化对策计划》提出， 到2035年在2013年基础上减少60%碳排放，到2040年减排73%。然而，国际环保组织"350.org"的测算显 示，这一目标与《巴黎协定》确立的"将全球气温升幅控制在工业化前水平1.5摄氏度以内"的要求相 比，仍存在6个百分点的差距，远不能满足全 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Energy Transition Conference focuses on accelerating the construction of a new energy system and promoting green and low-carbon transformation in the energy sector [1] Group 1: Global Energy Transition Trends - The "Global Energy Transition Report (2025)" indicates that global demand for coal and oil is stabilizing, while natural gas consumption is experiencing rapid growth. Solar and wind energy are becoming the main growth drivers, and nuclear technology is seeing a resurgence [1] - The report highlights that achieving the renewable energy "threefold installed capacity" goal will face significant challenges due to global development imbalances, with key minerals becoming strategic focal points for countries [1] Group 2: China's Energy Transition Efforts - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the role of central enterprises in adjusting energy supply structures and optimizing energy consumption methods, advocating for a multi-energy approach including wind, solar, water, and nuclear [2] - The National Energy Administration (NEA) reports that by the end of this year, China is expected to exceed the target of 20% non-fossil energy consumption, with new energy installations accounting for about 60% of global increments [3] Group 3: Technological and Infrastructure Developments - The State Grid Corporation plans to enhance the reliability and capacity of the power grid to support high-quality development of new energy, aiming for a capacity of 800 million kilowatts of distributed energy and 60 million charging facilities by 2030 [4] - The emphasis on circular economy as a sustainable resource guarantee is highlighted, with significant opportunities for innovation in carbon neutrality, particularly in the recycling of solar components [4] Group 4: Industry Analysis and Guidance - The launch of the "China Gas Station (Energy Station) Development Blue Book (2025-2026)" aims to provide in-depth analysis of industry policies, market dynamics, and technological applications, serving as a strategic guide for industry practitioners [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Energy Transition Conference will be held from November 22 to 24 in Changping District, Beijing, focusing on "Accelerating Collaborative Innovation between Enterprises and Regions for Green Transition Development" [1] - The conference will feature a variety of activities, including an opening ceremony, key events, exhibitions, and specialized meetings, along with site visits and project matchmaking [1][2] - Notable guests from various sectors, including government, industry, academia, and finance, will be invited to promote practical collaboration and innovation in the energy sector [2] Group 2 - This year's conference will emphasize the importance of energy storage and hydrogen energy as future industries, while also showcasing fossil energy and energy equipment as advantageous sectors [1][3] - The event will include significant policy announcements, project signings, and discussions on industry achievements, aiming to attract high-quality projects to the Energy Valley [3] - The Energy Valley, as a key platform for international scientific innovation in Beijing, has established numerous high-level research facilities and attracted a diverse range of enterprises and research talents [3]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Energy Transition Conference will be held from November 22 to 24 in Changping District, Beijing, focusing on accelerating collaborative innovation between enterprises and local governments for green transformation [1][2] - The conference will feature a variety of activities, including an opening ceremony, key events, exhibitions, and specialized meetings, highlighting the future industries of energy storage and hydrogen energy, as well as the advantages of energy equipment and fossil energy [1][2] Group 1 - The conference aims to gather over a hundred prominent guests, including leaders from relevant departments, renowned academicians, and representatives from global energy enterprises, to guide industry innovation [1][2] - Key activities will include a corporate-local cooperation forum and a high-quality development conference for the Energy Valley, aimed at enhancing collaboration and driving efficiency in the energy industry [2] - The event will also feature important policy releases, project signings, industry achievements, regional advantages promotion, and roundtable discussions to enrich the agenda [2] Group 2 - Since 2019, the Global Energy Transition Conference has been held annually in the Energy Valley, with this year's event expected to enhance Changping District's professional influence in the energy sector and attract high-quality projects [2]

Core Insights - The white paper released by the State Council Information Office highlights significant achievements in China's green and low-carbon energy transition [1][2] - China is focusing on renewable energy substitution while ensuring energy security, supporting the "dual carbon" goals [1] Renewable Energy Development - Non-fossil energy consumption is projected to increase from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% by 2024, with an average annual increase of nearly 1 percentage point [1] - Wind and solar power generation capacity is expected to exceed 1.69 billion kilowatts by August 2025, more than three times the capacity in 2020, contributing approximately 80% of new power installations since 2020 [1] - The share of wind and solar power generation is steadily increasing at an annual rate of 2.2 percentage points [1] - China is promoting integrated hydropower development while ensuring ecological protection and advancing nuclear power, green hydrogen, biomass, geothermal, and marine energy [1] Fossil Energy Utilization - The clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy is being accelerated, with the share of fossil energy consumption decreasing from 84.0% in 2020 to 80.2% by 2024 [2] - Efforts are being made to promote clean and efficient coal utilization and the green transformation of oil and gas development [2] Power System Enhancement - The comprehensive regulation capability of the power system is being enhanced to ensure safe operation and risk resilience amid large-scale renewable energy development [2] - The construction of a new power system that is clean, low-carbon, secure, abundant, economically efficient, and flexible is being accelerated [2] - Integrated development of power sources, grids, loads, and storage is being achieved to facilitate large-scale renewable energy development and utilization [2]

Core Insights - The global energy transition is progressing but is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals, with net-zero emissions by 2050 deemed unrealistic, leading to an expected temperature rise of 2.2°C by the end of the century [1][3][8] - Renewable energy is becoming the primary driver of the energy structure, with solar and wind expected to dominate global electricity generation by 2060 [1][10] - Fossil fuel consumption is projected to decline significantly, with coal demand experiencing the most substantial drop [2][10] Energy Structure - By 2060, the energy mix is expected to shift to a 50:50 ratio between fossil and non-fossil energy sources, with fossil fuels decreasing from 79% to 36% [2][10] - Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, will account for 47% and 32% of global electricity, respectively, by 2060, with electricity demand increasing by 140% from current levels [1][2] - Nuclear energy is anticipated to grow by 150% in installed capacity by 2060, contributing 9% to electricity supply [1][2] Regional Transition Paths - China is leading in renewable energy installations and clean technology exports, while Europe is focusing on balancing climate action with industrial competitiveness [2][10] - North America is experiencing a delay in emissions reduction due to policy shifts, with a projected five-year setback in the transition [2][10] - Developing regions, such as the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia, are seeing rapid growth in energy demand and renewable installations, although fossil fuels will still play a role in energy security for some time [2][10] Decarbonization Challenges - Hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, aviation, and shipping are progressing slowly, relying on hydrogen and carbon capture technologies, which are currently expensive and policy-dependent [2][10] - The deployment of these technologies is not expected to scale significantly until after 2040, with hydrogen projected to account for 6% of energy demand by 2060 and CCS capturing 16% of global CO2 emissions [2][10] Electricity System Constraints - The electricity system is facing challenges due to lagging grid infrastructure, which could hinder the growth of renewable energy sources [2][10] - In Europe, resolving grid bottlenecks could enhance solar and wind capacity significantly by 2035 [2][10] - The demand for electricity from AI data centers is expected to grow rapidly, potentially accounting for 3% of global electricity by 2040, although efficiency improvements may moderate this growth over time [2][10]