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碳酸锂日评:波动仍大,持仓注意保护-20250828
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:31
Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250828: High Volatility, Protect Positions" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term supply and demand are both strengthening, and the fundamentals have little change in the short term. It is necessary to guard against the recurrence of "contrarian" sentiment. The report suggests short - term range trading, protecting positions by appropriately buying options, or buying straddle options [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 27, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 838,879 hands, an increase of 559,599 hands compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 351,322 hands, an increase of 1,826 hands [3] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of 99.2% industrial - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of other lithium - related products also showed different degrees of changes [3] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and different grades of lithium products changed. For example, the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 27,477 tons, an increase of 787 tons [3] Industry News - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine in Mali had a security incident on August 22, but mining and processing activities were not affected. The mine started production in February and aims to produce 11,000 tons of spodumene concentrate per month. It has an agreement to sell all its output to Hainan Mining, but the export license has not been confirmed [3] - On August 27, the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association issued a draft initiative to maintain the healthy and orderly development of the lithium iron phosphate material industry, calling for the resistance of malicious price competition and the establishment of a cost - price index [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, with a decline in mica - based lithium carbonate production and an increase in spodumene - based lithium carbonate production [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while the production of ternary materials increased. In August, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the planned production increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that in July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month; 3C shipments were average; and the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3]