长假平稳度过，锂矿权证进度本月仍需重点关注 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：碳酸锂主力合约9月30日收于72800元/吨，较前一交易 日下跌1.52%。基差显著走强，从-820元/吨回升至300元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量减少7.86%至23.2万手，成交量大幅收缩 31.82%至31.7万手。 市场小结 短期碳酸锂市场或延续低位震荡格局。供给端新增产能释放与存量高开工 率形成压制，而需求端新能源汽车销量增长及六氟磷酸锂价格反弹提供底 部支撑。基差走强反映现货压力边际缓解，但仓单压力仍存。未来1-2周需 重点关注节后补库节奏与盐湖新产能爬坡速度，以及江西地区8个锂矿的后 续信息，当前市场传闻，已有一家企业通过储量报告审批，剩余企业仍需 关注。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石和锂云母精矿价格维持稳定，但头 ...

机械ETF（516960）跟踪的是细分机械指数（000812），该指数聚焦于机械设备行业，从市场中选取涉 及专用设备、通用机械等领域的优质上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机械设备行业相关上市公司证 券的整体表现和发展趋势。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国金证券指出，8月国内储能装机稳步回升，同/环比增长58%/63%，1～8月累计装机同比+36%，美国 市场受ITC法案调整影响，8月并网量同增47%但环比回落28%。锂电行业10月排产环比增长3%～9%， 电池、负极、电解液等环节同比增幅超40%，需求端持续扩张。碳酸锂、氢氧化锂价格月涨幅达20%， 电芯及电解液价格同步上行，仅铁锂材料因供应链调整小幅下跌。固态电池技术进入关键窗口期，2025 年下半年起复合集流体将逐步量产，全固态电池中试线加速布局，预计2026～2027年实现示范装车。行 业库存周期已进入补库阶段，部分环节供需格局改善，叠加新技术突破，产业链景气度呈现多元化提 升。 ...

1)锂电：9月22日，碳酸锂报价7.8万元/吨，较上月上涨20%；氢氧化锂报价7.1万元/吨，较上月上涨 20%。 2)整车：8月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达118万辆，同/环比+22%/10%；1～8月累计批发836万辆，同 比+35%。 行情回顾 2025年9月以来，锂电板块表现较为活跃，多数环节跑赢沪深300和上证50指数。锂电铜箔板块实现领 涨，涨幅为43%；仅低空经济呈现下跌态势，下跌幅度为-1%。本月锂电相关板块多数环节月度成交额 持续增长，主要系储能、人形机器人等板块资金交易活跃。本月过半锂电相关板块的3年历史估值分位 处于高位，市场对锂电板块关注度较高。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，2025年1～10月，碳酸锂/电池/正极/负极/隔膜/电解液预排产 累计同比预计达27%～58%，其中单10月电池、负极、电解液同比超40%；各环节排产环比小幅上调， 主要系因旺季在即，各厂商订单普遍增加，需求端持续扩张。旺季当前，锂电材料价格见涨，电芯、电 解液、正极小幅上涨，碳酸锂、氢氧化锂月涨幅达20%，铁锂材料下行。8月资源品、正负极、电解液 等主要材料价格受需求影响普遍持续上涨，铁锂材料下游电芯 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The lithium mining industry is experiencing a gradual stabilization after a period of clearing out excess inventory, with signs of a cyclical turning point approaching [2][3] - The report highlights that the performance of listed lithium companies is under pressure due to declining lithium prices and increased inventory levels, but there are indications of potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [8][10] Market Analysis - Lithium prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton in Q2 2025, down from 74,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a continued downward trend due to oversupply [10] - The production growth rate of lithium salts in China slowed, with Q2 2025 production at 299,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [11] - Social inventory of lithium salts remained high at over 150,000 tons due to weak demand [16] Company Performance - The total operating revenue of the 12 listed lithium companies reached 35.36 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3% [21] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% year-on-year to 3.227 billion yuan in Q2 2025, impacted by reduced gross profit and inventory impairment losses [25] - The gross margin for the companies was 22.36%, showing a reversal trend, while the net margin was 9.13% [33][36] Financial Metrics - The total expenses for the 12 companies amounted to 2.287 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year [40] - Capital expenditures for the companies totaled 11.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, indicating a slowdown in investment as the industry approaches a cyclical bottom [53] - The debt repayment capability remains stable, with an average cash ratio of 0.64 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.25% [61][62]

全固态电池制造的核心痛点，本质聚焦于固-固界面的接触难题，这一矛盾与液态电池 形成本征性分野。界面解决方案兼具固态电池产业化瓶颈突破的战略意义及供应链重构环节 的高增价值潜力，我们从头部应用确定性及弹性角度推荐：干法设备及粘接剂、激光设备， 及结构化材料提供商，关注等静压设备及ALD设备在固态领域应用等。 本月行业洞察： 国金证券近日发布锂电9月洞察：9月22日，碳酸锂报价7.8万元/吨，较上月上涨20%； 氢氧化锂报价7.1万元/吨，较上月上涨20%。8月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达118万辆，同/ 环比+22%/10%；1～8月累计批发836万辆，同比+35%。2025年9月以来，锂电板块表现较为 活跃，多数环节跑赢沪深300和上证50指数。锂电铜箔板块实现领涨，涨幅为43%；仅低空 经济呈现下跌态势，下跌幅度为-1%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：9月22日，碳酸锂报价7.8万元/吨，较上月上涨20%；氢氧化锂报价7.1万元/ 吨，较上月上涨20%。 2）整车：8月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达118万辆，同/环比+22%/10%；1～8月累计 批发836万辆，同比+35%。 行情回顾 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices of lithium carbonate are supported by destocking, but it's difficult to drive prices up independently. In the long - term, the supply side is expected to remain high or increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure [2][17] - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when prices are high and the reverse spread opportunity between LC2511 and LC2512 [3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's September Shipment Continued to Decline, and Destocking Supported Short - term Prices - Before the holiday (09/22 - 09/30), lithium salt prices showed a weak oscillation. LC2510's closing price dropped 1.4% month - on - month to 72,700 yuan/ton, and LC2511's closing price dropped 1.6% month - on - month to 72,800 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased 0.1% month - on - month to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased within the week. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide dropped 0.6% and 0.5% month - on - month to 73,600 and 78,600 yuan/ton respectively. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near 0 [1][10] - In September, Chile exported a total of 18,300 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 9% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 11,100 tons, a 15% month - on - month and 33% year - on - year decrease, and the arrival volume in October is expected to continue to decline. From January to September, Chile exported a total of 188,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 121,000 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, in September, Chile shipped 8,400 tons (4,200 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 21% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, a total of 70,000 tons (35,000 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 101% year - on - year increase [2][11] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, which will increase the company's lithium salt production capacity [18] - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation [18] - Core Lithium terminated the last off - take agreement of the Finniss lithium project, paying $2 million to release the future production capacity of the project [18] - Liontown Resources reached an agreement with Tesla to modify the pricing mechanism in the long - term off - take agreement [19] - The US government acquired a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a 5% stake in its joint project with General Motors, and Lithium Americas will draw $435 million from a previously announced $2.26 billion loan [19] - Eight lithium mines in Yichun have submitted relevant reports, and the possibility of suspension of production of producing mines is low [20][21] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at $858/ton, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease [11] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Market Was Weakly Oscillating - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed a weak oscillation. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 decreased month - on - month, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [1][10][11] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of changes, with some prices rising slightly and some remaining stable [11] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a seasonal demand increase, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices rising by 20% in September [1][6] - In August, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.18 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of solid-state battery technology and its potential breakthroughs in addressing interface issues, which are critical for commercialization [3][18] Summary by Sections Monthly Research Insights - The report discusses solutions to solid-solid interface issues in solid-state battery manufacturing, emphasizing the need for breakthroughs in physical, chemical, and mechanical dimensions [3][13] Industry Sentiment Tracking and Review - New energy vehicle sales in August showed strong growth, with China, Europe, and the US leading the market [4][22] - Domestic energy storage installations in August reached 12.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 58% [5][28] - The report forecasts a significant increase in lithium battery production in October, with year-on-year growth expected to be between 21% and 50% [5][34] Price and Volume Analysis - Lithium battery material prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices increasing by 20% in September [6][35] - The report notes that the lithium battery supply chain is entering a replenishment phase, with inventory levels rising [39] New Technology Developments - Solid-state batteries and composite current collectors are entering a critical engineering and industrialization phase, with significant orders expected for 2025 [6][44] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in solid-state battery technology, particularly in dry processing and isostatic pressing equipment [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery sector and those involved in solid-state technology breakthroughs, such as CATL and EVE Energy [7][21]

碳酸锂四季报 碳酸锂供需双增，价格围绕高位成本震荡 2025年9月30日 04 平衡与价格 碳酸锂供需双增，价格围绕高位成本震荡 主要观点 CONTENTS 目录 01 行情回顾 02 供给分析 03 需求分析 | | | 25年全球原生矿新增项目及产能充足，预计原生矿供给达166万吨LCE，同比增长22.26%，其中非洲维持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 高增速增长，南美盐湖陆续爬坡，澳矿平稳增长；国内三季度受反内卷减产及枧下窝停产影响，江 | | | 供给 | 西、青海等锂云母、盐湖产区减产明显，而锂辉石进口大幅增加补充，四川等锂辉石产区产量 | | | | 占比达50%，整体国内供给仍持续增长；枧下窝锂矿1 1月复产存在不确定性，但现阶段冶炼产 | | | | 能充足，氢氧化锂产能补充，随着海外锂矿增产及进口，国内锂资源供应依旧充分。 | | | | 25年全球新能源汽车及储能需求依然可期，国内外仍有较多政策支持以及补贴，预计全球电车销量同比 +22%至2220万辆，国内同比+28%至1650万辆，叠加纯电占比提升3.7ptc以及单车带电量增加4.96kwh， | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 71,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 150 yuan/ton to 73,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - Due to the suspension of raw material supply from Ningde Times' Yichun lithium mine, the joint - venture company Longpan Times of Ningde Times and Longpan Technology stopped production on September 25. It is expected to resume production in November. Longpan Technology is actively expanding procurement sources [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the inventory increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the inventory increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - Approaching the National Day, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. Position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract price increased by 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices declined, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - **News**: Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 due to raw material supply issues and is expected to resume in November. The company is actively seeking new procurement sources [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, with different changes in various production methods. Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased in both production and inventory. The overall inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Near the National Day, price support exists, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project resumption has uncertainties [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore**: The main and continuous contract closing prices of lithium carbonate futures increased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate rose by 1 US dollar/ton, while other lithium ore prices remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased, except for the unchanged price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials mostly increased, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 16,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.3 yuan/Ah, while other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [39][41]. - **Production Cost**: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [45]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, focuses on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, mainly studies lithium and nickel [48].

展望未来，报告预测，随着能源转型推进，电动汽车行业仍将是锂市场的主要驱动力，预计今年全球电 动汽车销量同比将增长23.9%，2026年将同比增长14.7%。另一方面，报告也指出，对中国制造的电动 汽车、电池和原材料征收关税可能会导致成本增加，从而减缓电动汽车的普及速度。 中化新网讯 近日，智利铜业委员会(COCHILCO)发布了《2025~2026年锂市场预测报告》。报告显示， 2025年全球锂供应量预计达144.3万吨(碳酸锂当量)，需求量预计达134万吨，供应过剩10.3万吨。预计 2026年锂需求和供应都将增长，供应过剩量预计达6万吨。 COCHILCO表示，由于供应过剩，锂价自2023年以来大幅下跌。尽管电动汽车电池行业的需求在提 升，但宏观经济和地缘政治的不确定性、美国电动汽车补贴中止以及非洲等新供应国崛起仍导致了供应 过剩。自中国赞格矿业于7月停止锂生产以来，锂价已开始上涨。报告预测，2026年亚洲碳酸锂到岸价 将达每吨1.0327万美元，氢氧化锂到岸价将达每吨1.092万美元，均高于8月27日的最高价。这一轮价格 上涨是否能持续，则取决于停产的时间和规模。 2024年，智利锂产量预计达到29.6 ...