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GGII:市场驱动下, 磷酸铁锂装机份额仍有上行空间
高工锂电· 2026-01-02 11:50
Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery installation volume is expected to reach a new high, driven by market demand and the increasing acceptance of LFP batteries due to their safety, cost-effectiveness, lifespan, and resource sustainability advantages [17]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the period from January to November 2025, the domestic installation volume of LFP batteries is approximately 490 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 55% and a market share of 78.5%, which is an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5][4]. - The market share of LFP batteries is close to the peak of 81% reached in 2014, with only a 2.5% difference, raising the question of whether it will surpass this peak again [5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The significant increase in the share of LFP batteries is fundamentally different from 2014, as it is now primarily market-driven, particularly in the passenger vehicle sector, whereas in 2014, it was mainly policy-driven, focusing on the bus sector [8]. - The proportion of new vehicles equipped with LFP batteries has remained between 90% and 96% this year, indicating a growing preference among manufacturers for LFP technology [10]. Group 3: Vehicle Models and Growth - The number of passenger vehicle models equipped with LFP batteries has increased from 213 in the past three years to 536 by November this year, with popular models like Geely Xingyuan, Xiaomi SU7, and XPeng MONA M03 contributing to this growth [13]. - Specific vehicle installation numbers and year-on-year growth rates for LFP battery models include: - Geely Xingyuan: 417,935 units (1214%) - Hongguang MINI EV: 405,752 units (81%) - Xiaomi SU7: 161,753 units (277%) - XPeng MONA M03: 161,142 units (398%) [14]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The top 10 companies in the domestic LFP battery installation market accounted for 95.3% of the total volume from January to November 2025, with companies like CATL, EVE Energy, and others showing steady growth over the past three years [16].