Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Research indicates that since Trump's second term began, the imposition of tariffs has exceeded market expectations in both pace and rates, leading to significant adjustments in macroeconomic forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Export Growth - The annual export growth forecast has been lowered to 0% due to high tariffs, although some products exported to the U.S. may still show resilience. Approximately 26.5% of products exported to the U.S. have a price advantage under current tariff levels, and 31.3% of products have a dependency of over 50% on China [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales Growth - The annual growth rate for social retail sales has been increased to 4.6%. This adjustment is driven by a series of consumption-promoting policies aimed at countering the risks of declining external demand, including trade-in programs and expanded inbound consumption [2]. Group 3: PPI Forecast - The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast has been lowered. The U.S. tariff policy casts a shadow over global economic growth, affecting international commodity prices. Additionally, industrial products with high dependency on U.S. exports may face downward price pressure [2]. Group 4: Economic Resilience - Despite the uncertainties surrounding tariffs, the advantages of a large domestic market and a well-established industrial chain are expected to effectively mitigate the risks associated with declining external demand, showcasing the resilience of the economy throughout the year [1][2].