在当今全球复杂的金融环境下，获取有见解的经济分析和市场预测比以往任何时候都更为重要。近日野 村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文（ Rob Subbaraman ）接受我们的采访，分享了他 对野村研究团队如何应对市场不确定性并为全球客户创造价值的见解。 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文（Rob Subbaraman） 野村全球宏观研究团队的职责是什么？ 野村全球宏观研究团队的核心使命是进行经济预测，涵盖从经济增长、通货膨胀到财政状 况和央行政策动向等各个方面。我们的策略师利用这些预测及不同信息，识别市场错误定 价并提供策略建议。我们的研究观点随着时间不断演进，并被我们的交易员、销售团队以 及野村在全球的客户所采用。 请谈谈您的职责和工作内容 作为全球宏观研究主管，我的角色已经逐渐从直接研究转向更多的管理工作。我通过指导 研究方向、促进团队协作以及鼓励各团队之间进行良性讨论来带领团队。 此外，我还担任野村全球市场部青年人才委员会的全球主席，负责公司亚洲（除日本外） 地区、欧洲、中东、非洲和美洲地区的青年人才招聘、培养和留任等工作，致力于培养强 大的未来领导人才储备。 您最喜欢工作中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The economy in the first half of 2025 showed resilience, with the real GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and the whole year of last year, reflecting the effect of counter - cyclical policy adjustment. The report predicts economic indicators for July 2025 and the third quarter, expecting a slight slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter, with GDP expected to grow by 4.9% year - on - year. The main supports for economic growth in the second half of the year are expected to come from consumption and infrastructure investment, while exports and the real estate market may pose uncertainties [1][13][81]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Added Value - Expected year - on - year growth in July: 6.0%. In July, the economic sentiment declined, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. Production and demand both declined, with the production index at 50.5% and the new order index at 49.4%. The price index rebounded. The production PMI dropped 0.5 pct to 50.5%, and the procurement volume index dropped 0.7 pct to 49.5%, indicating a marginal decline in production enthusiasm and economic sentiment. It is expected that the industrial added value growth rate in the third quarter may slow down compared to the second quarter [2][14][21]. 3.2 Social Retail Sales - Expected year - on - year growth in July: 5.1%. High - frequency data shows that real - estate post - cycle consumption is under pressure, but automobile sales increased by 9% year - on - year from July 1 - 27, and service consumption is expected to recover. The July service PMI was 50.0%, slightly down 0.1 pct from the previous month but still in the expansion range. It is expected that social retail sales will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the third quarter, with expected year - on - year growth of 5.1%, 4.8%, and 5.4% from July to September [3][29][31]. 3.3 Fixed - Asset Investment - Expected cumulative year - on - year growth in July: 2.7%. In infrastructure, the cumulative year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment declined in July, with the construction PMI dropping 2.2 pct to 50.6%, and the new special bond issuance accelerating. In real estate, investment growth remained weak, with new home sales and land transactions below seasonal levels, and demand remaining weak despite price rebounds in some commodities. In manufacturing, investment maintained resilience. Although domestic and external demand was weak, the manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [6][36][46]. 3.4 Trade 3.4.1 Exports - Expected year - on - year growth in July: 6.8%. After the Sino - US trade negotiations in June, the policy environment risk for exports decreased. In July, the weekly average of port cargo throughput and container throughput was higher than the same period last year. Exports to ASEAN countries remained strong, while exports to the US declined. It is expected that the export growth rate in the third quarter will be 5.6%, slightly lower than the 6.2% in the second quarter [50][61]. 3.4.2 Imports - Expected year - on - year growth in July: 0.0%. The import sub - index of the manufacturing PMI in July was 47.8%, the same as the previous month, interrupting two consecutive months of upward trends. The import container freight rate index increased slightly year - on - year. It is expected that the import growth rate will turn positive in the third quarter, with expected growth rates of 0.0%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from July to September [7][64][65]. 3.5 Inflation 3.5.1 CPI - Expected year - on - year growth in July: - 0.2%. In July, pork prices fluctuated at a low level, while vegetable prices rebounded. Considering the increase in oil prices and seasonal factors, the CPI may be negative. It is expected that the CPI will be - 0.2%, - 0.3%, and - 0.1% from July to September [8][68]. 3.5.2 PPI - Expected year - on - year growth in July: - 3.2%. In July, most commodity prices rebounded, with the PPI showing "improved month - on - month and narrowing year - on - year decline." The price increase was mainly due to supply - side policies rather than demand expansion. It is expected that the PPI will be - 3.2%, - 2.5%, and - 1.8% from July to September [8][70][71]. 3.6 GDP - Expected year - on - year growth in the third quarter: 4.9%. In July, the manufacturing PMI declined unexpectedly, with seasonal disturbances and weak demand. The expansion momentum slowed down. It is expected that the economic growth in the third quarter will decline slightly compared to the second quarter, with a year - on - year growth of about 4.9%. The annual GDP is expected to achieve a growth target of about 5% [81]. 3.7 Social Financing and Credit 3.7.1 Credit - Expected new credit in July: 38 billion yuan. July is a traditional off - peak month for credit, and the bill rate dropped significantly, indicating insufficient real - economy financing demand. It is expected that corporate short - term loans will decrease less year - on - year by 22 billion yuan, corporate long - term loans will increase by 18 billion yuan year - on - year, household short - term loans will decrease less year - on - year by 16.56 billion yuan, household long - term loans will increase by 1 billion yuan year - on - year, and bill financing will increase by 43 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 13 billion yuan [84][86][95]. 3.7.2 Social Financing - Expected new social financing in July: 162 billion yuan. It is expected that government bond net financing will be about 115 billion yuan, corporate bond net financing will be about 19 billion yuan, and non - standard financing will be - 24 billion yuan. The corresponding year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is expected to be 9.1%, higher than that in June. The M2 year - on - year growth rate in July is expected to be basically the same as that in June, at 8.3% [96][102][106].

Core Viewpoint - Global major economies are developing along different trajectories, with government bond returns sufficient to crowd out many other investments, but not all liquid assets are the same. Stocks remain the core of long-term returns, while illiquid alternative investments, especially hedge funds, tend to thrive in such environments [1][4][5]. Economic Forecasts - The long-term macroeconomic forecasts for key variables from 2025 to 2034 indicate that the US is expected to have a real GDP growth of 2.5% over ten years, while the Eurozone is projected at 1.2%. Inflation rates are expected to be around 2.5% for the US and 2.0% for the Eurozone over the same period [2][5]. - China’s long-term growth is anticipated to weaken to approximately 3.7%, while India is expected to maintain growth above 5% despite a slowdown [5]. Bond Market Insights - The expected returns for Eurozone government bonds and investment-grade bonds are around 5.0%, while US and UK bonds are projected to yield between 4.5% and 5.2%. High-yield bond returns are expected to be only 1% to 1.5% higher than these figures [1][8]. - Credit spreads are currently at historical lows, increasing the likelihood of spread widening in higher-risk fixed income sectors [8]. Stock Market Analysis - Stocks are largely dependent on corporate earnings growth for returns, with expected returns in developed markets projected to be between 6% and 8% over the long term. This is considered average or below average, particularly in Europe [9][14]. - Despite short-term volatility, stocks are expected to provide higher returns than cash for patient investors [9]. Alternative Investments - Liquid alternative investments are expected to yield a return of 3.9% over the next decade, driven by higher returns from cash and stock alternative strategies, but may not perform as well as government bonds [10]. - Non-liquid alternative investments, particularly in private equity and hedge funds, are projected to perform relatively well, with average returns around 6.5% [11]. Market Dynamics - The long-term outlook suggests that the growth paths of developed markets are unlikely to converge, with significant differences in actual growth and short-term interest rates expected to characterize the next decade [5][6].

Group 1 - The Eurozone economy showed strong performance in Q1 2025, with GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2022 [1][2] - Eurozone GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year, while the EU overall grew by 1.6%, with Ireland recording the highest growth rate at 9.7% [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to pause its interest rate cuts in July, as indicated by ECB President Lagarde, with analysts predicting the last rate cut may occur in September [2] Group 2 - Final household consumption expenditure in the Eurozone and EU grew by only 0.2%, indicating a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - Investment in fixed capital formation saw a robust growth of 1.8% in both the Eurozone and EU, significantly higher than the previous quarter [2] - The ECB has not made significant adjustments to its macroeconomic forecasts, projecting real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation expected to average 2.0% in 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% to ensure predictability in monetary policy amid increasing uncertainty [1] - The RBA's decision was influenced by domestic economic conditions and global trade policy changes, highlighting the risks posed by tariffs implemented by the Trump administration [1] - Australia's economy is vulnerable to global trade uncertainties, and while there are no significant negative impacts from U.S. tariffs observed yet, the RBA acknowledges potential indirect pressures from other countries [1] Group 2 - Despite high inflation and strong labor market indicators, the RBA concluded that it is not yet time to shift to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - The RBA's quarterly economic forecast indicates a slight return of core inflation to the target range of 2-3% and a slight loosening of the labor market, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 85 basis points by mid-2026 [2] - In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain stable interest rates due to economic strength and uncertainties related to tariffs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of new AI predictive models is transforming the way investors approach global macroeconomic forecasting, providing more precise methods for achieving excess returns [2][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Data Management - Financial services are investing unprecedented resources in data management and AI to build more accurate macroeconomic forecasting models, as asset allocation decisions significantly impact portfolio performance [3][5]. - The complexity of global markets and the vast amount of data involved have historically made reliable macroeconomic forecasting a challenging goal for investors [3][5]. - The use of clean and accurate training data, along with techniques like Teacher forcing, enhances the accuracy of AI predictions by ensuring optimal information is used at each step of the training process [3][5]. Group 2: AI and Predictive Models - Many large buy-side and sell-side firms are increasing their investments in data management and AI resources, although traditional methods involving human resources for data handling are costly and difficult to scale [4][5]. - LSEG's global macroeconomic forecasting integrates advanced technology and AI reasoning, providing a range of indicators that help traders and asset managers make informed decisions [7]. - The predictive service can be delivered via APIs, allowing companies to trade based on forecasts before official government data releases, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [7][12]. Group 3: Performance and Insights - LSEG's scalable, centralized data warehouse and automated framework support cutting-edge AI reasoning and automation, enhancing performance when data management and AI work in tandem [6]. - The integration of various data sources, including machine-readable news and point-in-time data, allows for the discovery of complex relationships and the generation of forward-looking economic indicators [5][12]. - Users can access predictive results and related data through a universal platform, enabling them to overlay this information onto existing portfolios for better identification of inter-data relationships [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Research indicates that since Trump's second term began, the imposition of tariffs has exceeded market expectations in both pace and rates, leading to significant adjustments in macroeconomic forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Export Growth - The annual export growth forecast has been lowered to 0% due to high tariffs, although some products exported to the U.S. may still show resilience. Approximately 26.5% of products exported to the U.S. have a price advantage under current tariff levels, and 31.3% of products have a dependency of over 50% on China [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales Growth - The annual growth rate for social retail sales has been increased to 4.6%. This adjustment is driven by a series of consumption-promoting policies aimed at countering the risks of declining external demand, including trade-in programs and expanded inbound consumption [2]. Group 3: PPI Forecast - The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast has been lowered. The U.S. tariff policy casts a shadow over global economic growth, affecting international commodity prices. Additionally, industrial products with high dependency on U.S. exports may face downward price pressure [2]. Group 4: Economic Resilience - Despite the uncertainties surrounding tariffs, the advantages of a large domestic market and a well-established industrial chain are expected to effectively mitigate the risks associated with declining external demand, showcasing the resilience of the economy throughout the year [1][2].