宏观经济预测

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宏观数据预测专题:三季度宏观经济形态怎么看?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-04 15:17
固定收益| 固定收益专题 三季度宏观经济形态怎么看? 宏观数据预测专题 2025 年上半年经济增长仍具有韧性,上半年实际 GDP 同比增长 5.3%,增 速比去年同期和全年均提升 0.3 个百分点,体现了政策逆周期调节的效果。 在后展望,宏观经济的有利条件和不利因素有哪些?三季度经济节奏会发 生变化吗?本文聚焦于此。 工业增加值:预计 7月当月同比为 6.0% 社零:预计 7月当月同比为 5.1% (1)7月服务业 PMI 较上月小幅回落 0.1pct 至 50.0%,仍处于扩张区间, 服务消费或对 7 月社零形成一定支撑;( 2 ) 7 月地产销售维持偏弱状态, 预计地产后周期消费承压;(3)7 月汽车销售同比有所增长,以旧换新政 策引导下预计消费潜力仍有释放空间。 作者 遭挽鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号: S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐澳』 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 谢 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110525070009 xieyao@tfzg.com 斐明楠 分析师 SAC 执 ...
巴克莱:全球主要经济体正沿着不同轨迹发 股票仍是长期回报的核心
智通财经网· 2025-06-17 08:50
智通财经APP获悉,巴克莱瑞士苏黎世尼古拉・瓦西利耶维奇(全球资产配置主管)与卢卡斯・盖林格(量化宏 观与主题策略主管)在一份研报中表示,全球主要经济体正沿着不同轨迹发展;政府债券的回报足以挤出许多其 他投资,但并非所有流动性资产都是如此;股票仍是长期回报的核心;非流动性另类投资,尤其是对冲基金,往 往能在这种环境中蓬勃发展。该行预计,未来十年欧元区政府债券和投资级债券的回报率约为5.0%,美国和 英国债券的回报率在4.5% -5.2%之间。对高收益债券回报的预期仅比这高出1%-1.5%。 巴克莱主要观点如下: 今年的金融市场动荡不安,且下半年也不太可能平静多少。不过,该行更新后的宏观经济与市场长期假设显 示,长期回报受短期噪音(无论其有多喧嚣)的影响微乎其微。 长期宏观经济预测(2025 - 2034 年) 关键宏观经济变量的 5 年期(2025 - 2029 年)及 10 年期(2025 - 2034 年)预期 | | Real GDP growth | | | Inflation | Central bank policy rate | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
欧洲央行或将于7月暂停降息周期
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-06-11 15:57
Group 1 - The Eurozone economy showed strong performance in Q1 2025, with GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2022 [1][2] - Eurozone GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year, while the EU overall grew by 1.6%, with Ireland recording the highest growth rate at 9.7% [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to pause its interest rate cuts in July, as indicated by ECB President Lagarde, with analysts predicting the last rate cut may occur in September [2] Group 2 - Final household consumption expenditure in the Eurozone and EU grew by only 0.2%, indicating a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - Investment in fixed capital formation saw a robust growth of 1.8% in both the Eurozone and EU, significantly higher than the previous quarter [2] - The ECB has not made significant adjustments to its macroeconomic forecasts, projecting real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation expected to average 2.0% in 2025 [2]
澳联储5月会议纪要:降息25基点旨在维持不确定时期政策可预测性
智通财经网· 2025-06-03 03:33
智通财经APP获悉,根据澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)周二公布的5月19-20日会议纪要,该行最终决定如市 场普遍预期将借贷成本下调25个基点,部分原因在于澳联储希望确保"在不确定性加剧之际,货币政策 设定保持可预测性"。会议纪要显示,委员会认为将现金利率降至3.85%的25基点降息方案是"更有力的 选择"。 尽管如此,澳联储已做好必要时调整政策的准备。会议纪要显示,若全球局势对经济活动和通胀产 生"实质性影响","货币政策完全有能力果断应对"。 纪要指出:"仅国内经济形势的发展就足以支持降息,而全球贸易政策的变化更强化了采取这一行动的 必要性。" 澳联储还随5月决议发布了对宏观经济预测的季度更新:预计在整个预测期内,基础通胀率将略快回落 至2-3%目标区间中点附近,同时劳动力市场料将略有松动。预测假定到2026年年中累计降息85个基 点。 这些表述凸显出澳联储在经历三年抑制通胀努力后,已将政策重心转向特朗普政府关税政策引发的经济 风险。澳大利亚经济本就以脆弱的姿态卷入全球关税不确定性,本周公布的数据很可能呈现出该国经济 今年一季度增长乏力的现状。 相比之下,美联储2025年以经济强劲及关税等政策变化存在不确定性 ...
出口可能依然不差——5月经济数据前瞻【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-31 11:45
Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]
强大的新型宏观预测指标助力超额收益
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-20 05:23
Nicole Allen LSEG 文本分析总监 利用全球宏观经济预测来指导固定收益、外汇以及股票市场的头寸配置,一直是投资者面临的最棘手难题之 一。然而,随着新型人工智能预测模型的出现,这一局面正在迅速发生转变。这些模型需要稳健强大的数据 管理流程以及合适的训练过程作为支撑。而 LSEG全球宏观经济预测,为宏观预测提供了更为精细、精准的 方法,为获取超额收益创造了新的机会。 在金融服务领域,针对交易与投资的分析,在数据和技术方面的投入规模已达到前所未有的水平。 日益复杂的模型不仅需要更多的数据,还需具备更优质的数据管理能力。对于投资者而言,为行业和资产配 置构建可靠的宏观经济预测,都是其长期以来追求的终极目标,因为这会对投资组合的表现产生重大影响。 在机器学习技术问世之前,鉴于全球市场极端复杂,且涉及的数据量极为庞大,这一目标似乎遥不可及。 宏观信息方面缺乏专业知识和资源的投资公司带来了新的超额收益机会,并使其能够在外汇、固定收益和股 票市场做出更明智的交易和投资组合层面的决策。 夯实基础 使用干净且真实的训练数据,在训练过程中运用例如Teacher forcing等技术,能够纠正AI在推理过程中的错 误。 ...
兴业研究:彰显韧性——宏观经济季度展望
智通财经网· 2025-05-11 01:23
Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Research indicates that since Trump's second term began, the imposition of tariffs has exceeded market expectations in both pace and rates, leading to significant adjustments in macroeconomic forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Export Growth - The annual export growth forecast has been lowered to 0% due to high tariffs, although some products exported to the U.S. may still show resilience. Approximately 26.5% of products exported to the U.S. have a price advantage under current tariff levels, and 31.3% of products have a dependency of over 50% on China [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales Growth - The annual growth rate for social retail sales has been increased to 4.6%. This adjustment is driven by a series of consumption-promoting policies aimed at countering the risks of declining external demand, including trade-in programs and expanded inbound consumption [2]. Group 3: PPI Forecast - The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast has been lowered. The U.S. tariff policy casts a shadow over global economic growth, affecting international commodity prices. Additionally, industrial products with high dependency on U.S. exports may face downward price pressure [2]. Group 4: Economic Resilience - Despite the uncertainties surrounding tariffs, the advantages of a large domestic market and a well-established industrial chain are expected to effectively mitigate the risks associated with declining external demand, showcasing the resilience of the economy throughout the year [1][2].