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【零售】大促前置影响6月表现,黄金零售短期承压——2025年6月社消零售数据点评(姜浩/梁丹辉)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-17 14:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's retail sector in June 2025, highlighting a slowdown in growth rates across various categories of consumer goods, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and changes in promotional cycles [2][8]. Retail Performance Summary - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 24.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Category-Specific Insights - Supermarket sector saw a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in grain and oil products, but this was a decline of 5.9 percentage points from May [3]. - Beverage sales dropped by 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Daily necessities experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from May [3]. Apparel and Cosmetics - Textile and apparel retail sales grew by 1.9% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from May [4]. - Cosmetic sales fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. Jewelry and Electronics - The gold and jewelry sector reported a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, but this was a decline of 15.7 percentage points from May [5]. - Home appliances saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 32.4%, although this represented a decrease of 20.6 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Other Categories - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 11.9 percentage points from May [7]. - Communication equipment sales grew by 13.9% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 19.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Cultural and office supplies saw a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from May [7]. Market Dynamics - The slowdown in retail sales growth in June is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and the elongation of promotional cycles, leading to an earlier release of consumer demand [8]. - Essential goods experienced a decline in growth rates, with beverages and tobacco categories showing negative year-on-year growth [8]. - Optional goods, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, faced demand suppression due to fluctuating gold prices, resulting in a decrease in growth rates [8].