科创债ETF成分券套利
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固收深度报告20251021:如何挖掘科创债ETF成分券套利机会?
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-21 06:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Sci - tech Bond ETF has expanded again, and the adjustment of its component bonds implies opportunities. When a sci - tech bond is included in the ETF, passive funds' concentrated buying may drive up its price in the short term, creating arbitrage opportunities. In the long - run, it may benefit from liquidity optimization and credit endorsement, forming a price spill - over effect [1][8][9]. - By analyzing the rules of Sci - tech Bond ETF's component bond adjustment from September 10 to September 30, 2025, a set of forward - looking prediction frameworks can be constructed to help investors find potential component bonds and capture capital gains [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sci - tech Bond ETF Expansion and Component Bond Adjustment Opportunities - The sci - tech bond market has expanded rapidly, and the Sci - tech Bond ETF products have emerged and developed. In 2025, the first batch of 10 Sci - tech Bond ETFs had an initial scale of 76.499 billion yuan, reaching 139.151 billion yuan by October 9, with an increase of 81.90%. The second batch of 14 Sci - tech Bond ETFs, listed on September 24, had an initial scale of 104.566 billion yuan, reaching 113.441 billion yuan by October 9, with an increase of 8.49% [8]. - When a sci - tech bond is included in the ETF, passive funds' concentrated buying can push up its price and create arbitrage opportunities. In the long - run, it may benefit from liquidity and credit, forming a "component bond rush" market [1][9]. 3.2 Bond Nature - related Indicators 3.2.1 Implied Rating - The Sci - tech Bond ETF shows a clear rating preference, with AA+ as an important dividing line. Bonds with an implied rating below AA+ have a low probability of being included, while those with AAA and AAA - ratings have a low probability of being removed. AAA - rated bonds are preferred, and AA+ - rated bonds can also be considered [1][14][15]. 3.2.2 Bond Scale - The Sci - tech Bond ETF uses 40 billion yuan as an important dividing line for bond scale. Small - and medium - scale bonds (within 40 billion yuan) are more likely to be included, especially those within 20 billion yuan. Larger - scale bonds have a lower inclusion probability but a lower removal probability after inclusion [1][16][17]. 3.2.3 Bond Type - The Sci - tech Bond ETF only includes public - issued corporate bonds and financial bonds, no sub - bonds. This helps ensure the ETF's circulation in the exchange market, guarantees information transparency and liquidity, and controls credit risks [1][19]. 3.2.4 Issuer's Enterprise Nature - The Sci - tech Bond ETF tends to include bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. Central - state - owned - enterprise - issued bonds are preferred, and high - quality private - enterprise - issued bonds also have a chance of inclusion. Local - state - owned - enterprise - issued bonds are the main ones to be removed [1][23][24]. 3.2.5 Issuer's Industry - The Sci - tech Bond ETF prefers traditional industries such as industry, finance, and public utilities, which provide a stable value and liquidity foundation. It also actively adjusts and selectively includes emerging industries like energy and materials to balance traditional and emerging sectors [1][28][29]. 3.2.6 Bond Issuance and Remaining Terms - The Sci - tech Bond ETF mainly includes and removes medium - and short - term bonds with issuance terms of 3 - year and 5 - year and remaining terms of about 2 - 5 years. It prefers newly - issued or recently - listed bonds to ensure liquidity [1][32][33]. 3.3 Market Performance - related Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Liquidity - The Sci - tech Bond ETF prefers bonds that have been traded recently (within about two weeks) with high trading volume. Bonds with a trading turnover rate of over 3% are more likely to be included. However, non - traded bonds that meet other criteria can also be considered due to the lack of high - turnover bonds [1][2][47]. 3.3.2 Average Daily Tracking Index Deviation - Bonds with an average daily tracking index deviation of less than 0.04% are more likely to be included, and those with a deviation of less than 0.1% can also be considered. Bonds with a deviation of more than 0.08% are more likely to be removed [1][2][53]. 3.4 Summary - In terms of bond nature, the Sci - tech Bond ETF prefers bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or above (especially AAA), small - and medium - scale (within 40 billion yuan, especially within 20 billion yuan), public - issued corporate and financial bonds, issued by central and local state - owned enterprises (especially central ones), from traditional industries, and with medium - and short - term issuance and remaining terms [55][56]. - In terms of market performance, it prefers bonds that are newly traded within 15 days with a high turnover rate and those with an average daily tracking index deviation of less than 0.1% (especially less than 0.04%) [57].