Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market strategy for 2026, characterized by a "slow bear" and "divergence" in "relative value" [1] - The real estate industry is expected to bottom out in Q2 2026, with sales, inventory, and new construction growth rates having reached their lowest points [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The projected upper limit for interest rates in 2026 is 2.25%, driven primarily by nominal GDP recovery, which is expected to exceed 5% [1][3] - The current policy framework emphasizes stability to address uncertainties and structural challenges, avoiding large-scale stimulus while supporting emerging industries [1][7] - The CPI is forecasted to center around 0.8% next year, while PPI is expected to recover to above -1%, influenced by monetary activation and the bottoming out of real estate investment [1][8] - The market's focus on the lower limit of interest rates is determined by the cost of bank liabilities, which is currently stable at around 1.6% [1][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The phenomenon of monetary activation is reflected in the M1-M2 differential, which has decreased from over 8% to 1%-2% recently, indicating a shift from time deposits to demand deposits [4][5] - The real estate sector is currently experiencing negative growth across all metrics, but improvements are expected as investment growth bottoms out [6] - The sales regulations are aimed at protecting investors and promoting long-term holding, which has led to behavioral changes in the market [21][22] - Non-bank institutions are facing challenges due to new sales regulations and valuation adjustments, leading to potential liquidity opportunities [14] - The macro trading strategy for 2026 will focus on the expected recovery of fundamentals and the panic caused by new redemption fee regulations [15] Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2026 will be characterized by "trading," with structural gaming opportunities arising from the rotation between interest rates and credit [20] - The current monetary policy is expected to have limited room for rate cuts, with only 1-2 potential cuts anticipated [11] - The anticipated rise in funding prices for 2026 is expected to be around 1.5%, slightly higher than the current levels [12] Conclusion - The bond market strategy for 2026 will require a focus on trading and structural opportunities, with an emphasis on liquidity and the impact of regulatory changes on market behavior [20][21]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is actively promoting the development of the green and ESG bond market, aligning with national green development strategies [1][2] - As of October 2025, the cumulative issuance of green bonds (including ABS) on the SSE has approached 900 billion yuan, with low-carbon transition bonds exceeding 80 billion yuan since their introduction in 2022 [1] - The market structure of green and low-carbon transition bonds is characterized by a diversified maturity profile, primarily mid-term, with issuers from key industries including large state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and private companies [1] Market Mechanism Innovation - The SSE has facilitated smoother low-carbon financing for enterprises through innovative market mechanisms, enhancing financing convenience [3] - Companies like COSCO Shipping Development have successfully issued green bonds, demonstrating the effectiveness of SSE's financing mechanisms [3] - The SSE has lowered the threshold for green bonds to be included in benchmark market-making securities, improving liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market [4] Future Development Directions - The SSE plans to continue advancing the green and ESG bond market under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, aiming to provide stronger financing support for the green transition of real enterprises [2] - Discussions at the symposium highlighted the importance of enhancing the flexibility of fund usage and management, as well as optimizing incentive policies to expand the depth and breadth of the green bond market [6] - Investment institutions expressed a desire for a broader supply of green bonds to widen investment options, with expectations for more enterprises to issue green bonds on the SSE [6]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is actively promoting green finance and has made significant progress in developing the green and ESG bond market, with a cumulative issuance of nearly 900 billion yuan in green bonds and over 80 billion yuan in low-carbon transition bonds by October 2025 [1] - A recent seminar gathered various stakeholders to discuss the achievements and future directions of the green bond market, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among enterprises, securities firms, investment institutions, and experts [1][4] Group 1: Market Development - The SSE has implemented innovative mechanisms to support green bond issuance, enhancing liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market [3] - The introduction of green and low-carbon transition bonds has facilitated smoother financing for companies, as evidenced by successful issuances like the 1 billion yuan low-carbon transition bond by China COSCO Shipping Development Co., with a favorable interest rate of 2.18% [2] - The SSE is also developing public REITs in the green sector, with six projects listed, totaling 16.2 billion yuan, focusing on clean energy assets [3] Group 2: Stakeholder Engagement - Participants at the seminar highlighted the need for flexible fund management and optimized incentive policies to expand the depth and breadth of the green bond market [5] - Investment institutions expressed a desire for a broader supply of green bonds to enhance investment choices, with expectations for more enterprises to issue green bonds on the SSE [5] - Experts suggested diversifying the types of bonds to include areas like biodiversity and climate adaptation, aiming to deepen the green finance system [6] Group 3: Future Directions - The SSE plans to continue advancing the green and ESG bond market under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, focusing on enhancing financing support for the green transition of real enterprises [6]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has reported that by the end of October 2025, the cumulative issuance of green bonds (including ABS) will approach 900 billion yuan, with low-carbon transition bonds exceeding 80 billion yuan since their launch in 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Green Bond Market Development - The SSE is actively promoting the development of green bonds and ESG bonds to enhance the bond market's service to green development and the transformation of the real economy [1][3]. - The market structure of green and low-carbon transition bonds is characterized by a predominance of medium-term bonds, with a diverse range of issuers from key industries such as industrial, public utilities, and finance [1][2]. - The funds raised through these bonds are directed towards the green transformation of the real economy, aligning closely with the national "dual carbon" strategy and green development goals [1]. Group 2: Secondary Market Innovations - The SSE has been innovating mechanisms to support the issuance of green bonds, including lowering the threshold for green bonds to be included in benchmark market-making securities, which enhances liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market [2]. - The recent launch of a science and technology innovation bond ETF has effectively reduced financing costs and may stimulate further market activity if similar products are introduced in the green bond market [2]. Group 3: REITs Development - The SSE is also constructing a public REITs and inter-institutional REITs market in the green sector, with clean energy being one of the key pilot industries [2]. - Six projects in clean energy have been listed on the SSE, with a total issuance scale of 16.2 billion yuan, covering areas such as photovoltaic, wind, and hydropower [2]. Group 4: Future Directions - The SSE plans to continue advancing the construction of the green bond and ESG bond market under the leadership of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, aiming to provide stronger financing support for the green transformation of real enterprises [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is actively promoting the development of the green and ESG bond market to support the green transformation of real enterprises and enhance the effectiveness of financing for the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development and Achievements - As of October 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of green bonds (including ABS) on the SSE has approached 900 billion yuan, with low-carbon transition bonds exceeding 80 billion yuan since their launch in 2022 [1]. - The market structure of SSE's green and low-carbon transition bonds features a diversified maturity profile, primarily mid-term, with issuers spanning key industries such as industrial, public utilities, and finance, including large state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and private companies [1][3]. Group 2: Financing Mechanisms and Benefits - The SSE's green bonds provide a convenient financing mechanism that aligns well with companies' financing needs, as demonstrated by China Merchants Energy's successful issuance of a 1 billion yuan, 15-year low-carbon transition bond at a 2.18% interest rate [3]. - The ability to replace self-funded expenditures on green projects with raised funds enhances the flexibility of fund usage and reduces financing costs [3]. Group 3: Secondary Market Innovations - The SSE is continuously innovating mechanisms to support green bond issuance, including lowering the threshold for green bonds to be included as benchmark market-making securities, which improves liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market [4]. - The introduction of a science and technology innovation bond ETF has effectively reduced financing costs and could further stimulate market activity if similar products are launched in the green bond market [4]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - Participants at the symposium emphasized the importance of enhancing the flexibility of fund management and optimizing incentive policies to expand the depth and breadth of the green bond market [6]. - Investment institutions called for a richer supply of green bonds to broaden investment choices, with expectations for more enterprises to issue green bonds on the SSE [7]. - The SSE plans to continue advancing the green and ESG bond market under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, aiming to provide stronger financing support for the green transformation of real enterprises and better serve national strategic goals and high-quality economic development [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) is actively promoting the development of the green and ESG bond market to support the green transformation of real enterprises and enhance the effectiveness of financing for the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development and Achievements - As of October 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of green bonds (including ABS) on the SSE has approached 900 billion yuan, with low-carbon transition bonds exceeding 80 billion yuan since their launch in 2022 [1]. - The market structure of SSE's green and low-carbon transition bonds is characterized by a diversified maturity profile, primarily mid-term, with issuers spanning key industries such as industrial, public utilities, and finance [1][4]. Group 2: Financing Mechanisms and Benefits - The financing mechanisms for green bonds and low-carbon transition bonds on the SSE are considered convenient, effectively meeting companies' financing needs in related fields [3]. - The SSE allows funds raised from green bonds to replace self-funded expenditures on green projects incurred in the previous 12 months, providing greater autonomy in choosing issuance timing and reducing financing costs [3]. Group 3: Secondary Market Innovations - The SSE has lowered the threshold for green bonds to be included as benchmark market-making securities, enhancing liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market [4]. - The introduction of a science and technology innovation bond ETF has effectively reduced financing costs and could further stimulate market activity if similar products are launched in the green bond market [4]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - Participants at the symposium emphasized the importance of enhancing the flexibility of fund usage and management, as well as optimizing incentive policies to expand the depth and breadth of the green bond market [6]. - There is a call for a richer supply of green bonds to broaden investment choices, with expectations for more enterprises to issue green bonds on the SSE [6]. Group 5: Standards and Training - The understanding and application of green bond standards are becoming focal points, with suggestions for increased industry training and communication to enhance market participants' capabilities [7]. - Future innovations in bonds are encouraged to include areas such as biodiversity, climate adaptation, and carbon benefits to promote the development of the green finance system [7].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 27 日 折价修复后，信用债 ETF 怎么看？ ——信用债 ETF 系列报告 投资要点： 其一，摊余定开债基在结束开放并进入封闭期开始建仓后，或将对 3-5Y 中长久期信 用债形成较为强烈的配置需求，尤其将直接利好普信债。同时我们观察中证 AAA 科 创债指数成分券的期限结构分布，剩余期限 1-3Y 的成分券权重占比为 44.01%、 3-5Y 成分券权重占比为 27.07%，与摊余定开债基集中开放所直接利好的 3-5Y 普 信债期限重合度较高，或将进一步推动信用债 ETF 成分券（尤其是科创债 ETF 成分 券）的估值修复。 其二，公募赎回费新规影响下，信用债 ETF 因其场内 T+0 交易、低费率，以及可以 进行质押式回购融资等优势，或将进一步迎来规模和净值的双重修复。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声 ...

证券研究报告 2026年信用债年度策略： 信用利差扩大的观察之年 证券分析师：李勇 执业证书编号：S0600519040001 联系邮箱：liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：徐津晶 执业证书编号：S0600523110001 联系邮箱：xujj@dwzq.com.cn 2025年11月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1、信用债市场及细分板块复盘与展望 2、从企业微观视角看信用扩张信号及基本面修复进程 3、风险提示 1、 信用债市场及细分板块复盘与展望 ✓ 信用债市场展望 ✓ 城投债板块展望 3 研究成果 摘要 ➢ 供给侧：规模预计继续维持小幅增长，结构预计延续2025年的"产业债为主、城投债补充"，一方面主要源于"十五五"战略导向已明确"科技 自立自强"，加之科创债ETF配置需求抬升，因此科技创新债券在政策引领下扩容概率较高，为信用债市场体量的增长构成新动能；另一方面主 要源于城投平台在经历数轮债务置换、压降后，大量平台主体已转型为产业化主体或正在探索产业化转型路径，而城投退平台的推进意味着打破 "借新换旧"掣肘的可能性日益增加，并带来新增融资需求 ➢ 需求侧：预计总量上变化不大，但结 ...

公募基金行业正处于从重规模向重投资者回报转向的关键期。深圳凝聚各方力量，共同塑造价值、创造 新生态，"长钱长投"成效渐显。来自深圳证监局的数据显示，截至9月底，深圳公募基金公司管理的社 保、年金等养老金产品规模超2万亿元，较去年底增长超10%；平安保险和太平保险已在深圳设立私募 基金开展长期股票投资。 投研能力硬核进阶，为基金规模质量双升筑牢根基。截至9月末，深圳权益类基金规模达2.13万亿元， 今年以来增长23%；指数基金快速发展，今年以来规模增长达31%，较2020年底增长达267%。深圳全部 公募基金持有A股流通市值超1.32万亿元，较去年年底增长超20%。 在推进改革的过程中，深圳公募基金行业引导资金流向重点领域，发挥资本市场服务实体经济的枢纽功 能。聚焦科技创新，深圳公募基金公司加大科技主题产品布局，引流金融"活水"浇灌新质生产力。截至 9月底，科技主题基金达495只，规模达5060.9亿元，较二季度末增长60.94%，积极参与首批科创债ETF 发行，募集规模超110亿元，有效支持了科技创新与产业升级。 当前，我国公募基金行业正处在改革深化、提质增效关键期。在证监会《推动公募基金高质量发展行动 方案 ...

科创债凸显独特投资价值。科创债ETF（551880）既能凭借高等级信用债底色抵御债市短期波动，又能 依托政策持续加码的红利，为投资者分享科技创新领域长期发展机遇，成为平衡风险与收益的优质配置 选择。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华泰证券表示，展望明年，供给端来看，预计科创债ETF仍持续扩容；需求端来看，目前年金、理财机 构是科创债ETF的主要买盘之一，由于科创债ETFT+0、可质押、低费率等优势，叠加公募赎回新规影 响下，预计市场对科创债ETF持续扩充需求。 ...