1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week (3/23 - 3/27), bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 21.5 billion yuan. Credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs had net inflows of 19.7 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 1.3 billion yuan respectively. Their cumulative unit net value weekly changes were +0.06%, +0.12%, and +1.02% [2][14]. - Thanks to the scarcity support of short - and medium - term coupon assets due to supply contraction and the demand support from "asset relocation" of wealth management products and continuous acceptance by public funds, credit bonds maintained strong resilience in the recent volatile market [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Issuance Progress Tracking - There were no newly issued bond ETFs last week [3][18]. 3.2 Stock Product Tracking - As of March 27, 2026, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 130.4 billion yuan, 401.1 billion yuan, and 72.8 billion yuan respectively, with credit - bond ETFs accounting for 66% of the total. Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF and Boshi Convertible - bond ETF had the top two circulating market values, at 91.4 billion yuan and 60.7 billion yuan respectively [4][20]. - Compared with last week, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs increased by 3.3 billion yuan, 18.3 billion yuan, and decreased by 0.5 billion yuan respectively. Products with significant scale increases last week included Harvest CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF, and Southern CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, with increases of 6.2 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 3.3 billion yuan respectively [4][20]. - Among credit - bond ETFs, the circulating market values of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs and science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs were 100.9 billion yuan and 277.5 billion yuan respectively, increasing by 0.5 billion yuan and 12.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs ended a ten - week decline [4][22]. 3.3 ETF Performance Tracking - The cumulative unit net values of interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs closed at 1.19 and 1.03 respectively. The benchmark - making credit - bond ETF's return since its establishment has marginally climbed to 1.89%, and the science - and - technology innovation bond ETF's return since its establishment has risen to 0.85% [5][23][31]. 3.4 Premium/Discount Rate Tracking - Last week, the average premium/discount rates of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.03%, - 0.01%, and - 0.10% respectively. The average trading price of credit - bond ETFs was lower than the fund's unit net value, indicating low allocation sentiment. Specifically, the weekly average premium/discount rates of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs and science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs were - 0.07% and - 0.03% respectively, and the discount rates continued to converge [6][35]. 3.5 Turnover Rate Tracking - Last week, the turnover rate ranked as convertible - bond ETFs > interest - rate bond ETFs > credit - bond ETFs. The weekly turnover rate of convertible - bond ETFs improved to 155%, while those of interest - rate and credit - bond ETFs slightly declined to 144% and 96% respectively. Products with high turnover rates included Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark - making Treasury Bond ETF, Guotai CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, and Haifutong Shanghai Stock Exchange 5 - year Local Government Bond ETF [7][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond ETFs has significantly increased, with credit - bond ETFs contributing the main increment. Last week, the net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was 3.145 billion yuan, 19.669 billion yuan, and - 1.336 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 21.479 billion yuan in the bond ETF market [1][4]. - The scale trend of convertible - bond ETFs is differentiated, and science - innovation bond ETFs have received a large inflow of funds. Last week, the convertible - bond ETFs had a net redemption of 1.336 billion yuan, while the science - innovation bond ETFs had a net inflow of 12.058 billion yuan [1][5]. - After the end of the quarter, attention should be focused on the change of the liquidity center in April. Due to the upcoming tax period in April, combined with the rhythm of fiscal expenditure and the supply pressure of the bond market, there is a need to be vigilant about the disturbance of the short - and medium - duration products caused by the structural tightness of funds. The bond ETF market may maintain the current duration strategy, and the scale may tilt towards defensive varieties [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The scale of bond ETFs has grown significantly, and credit - bond ETFs contribute the main increment. As of March 27, 2026, the bond ETF fund scale was 748.058 billion yuan, up 3.13% from the previous week's closing, down 9.79% from the beginning of the year, and accounting for 14.84% of the total market ETF scale, with a 62bp increase from the previous weekend [1][4]. - The convertible - bond ETFs had a net redemption of 1.336 billion yuan last week, with the inflows of Convertible Bond ETF Haifutong and Convertible Bond ETF Boshi being + 528 million yuan and - 1.864 billion yuan respectively. The science - innovation bond ETFs had a net inflow of 12.058 billion yuan, followed by short - term financing ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs, with net inflows of 4.33 billion yuan and 2.786 billion yuan respectively last week [1][5]. 3.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of the close on March 27, 2026, the shares of various types of bond ETFs such as treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, benchmark market - making credit bond, science - innovation bond, corporate bond, short - term financing, urban investment bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 601.05 million shares, 358.51 million shares, 163.16 million shares, 986.20 million shares, 2716.21 million shares, 339.96 million shares, 797.53 million shares, 3614.38 million shares, and 5417.95 million shares respectively, with changes of 1.0%, 2.0%, 0.9%, - 0.1%, 3.1%, 0.1%, 3.7%, 4.9%, - 0.3% compared with March 20, 2026, and the total share of bond - type ETFs changed by + 1.9%. Compared with the end of last month, the total share of bond - type ETFs changed by 3.5% [11]. 3.3 各基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Among the existing 8 credit - bond ETFs, the share of Corporate Bond ETF Southern led the increase. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the shares of these 8 ETFs were 99.46 million shares, 80.41 million shares, 97.44 million shares, 96.47 million shares, 184.72 million shares, 203.30 million shares, 89.00 million shares, and 141.32 million shares respectively, with changes of no change, - 2.43%, - 2.01%, no change, 5.66%, - 0.10%, - 1.11%, no change compared with March 20, 2026 [17]. - The net value of these 8 credit - bond ETFs continued to rise. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the net values were 1.0217, 1.0210, 1.0195, 1.0198, 1.0148, 1.0179, 1.0187, and 1.0178 respectively, with changes of 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.07%, 0.07%, 0.07%, 0.07% compared with March 20, 2026, and changes of 0.24%, 0.25%, 0.25%, 0.25%, 0.25%, 0.26%, 0.24%, 0.25% compared with the end of last month [20]. 3.4 各科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The net subscription shares of science - innovation bond ETFs turned positive significantly, and funds were concentrated in AAA - rated science - innovation bond products. Among the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the share had a net inflow of 119.91 million shares last week, up 4.55% from the previous week. The top three products in terms of share as of March 27, 2026, were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Penghua, with 278.00 million shares, 210.14 million shares, and 189.81 million shares respectively. The top three in terms of net inflow of shares were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Southern, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia, all of which are products tracking the AAA science - innovation bond index [23]. - The net value increase of science - innovation bond ETFs widened. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the top - ranked products in terms of net value among the 24 science - innovation bond ETFs were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Wanjia, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Invesco Great Wall, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huatai - Peregrine, with net values of 1.0114, 1.0112, and 1.0112 respectively. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs last week were 1.0066 and 1.0096 respectively, up 0.06% from the previous week's closing. The median net values of products tracking the AAA science - innovation bond, Shanghai AAA science - innovation bond, and Shenzhen AAA science - innovation bond were 1.0089, 1.0074, and 1.0113 respectively, up 0.06% from the previous week's closing [31]. 3.5 上周单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The net values of all bond ETF products rose last week. Convertible Bond ETF Boshi and Convertible Bond ETF Haifutong led the increase, up 1.22% and 0.81% respectively from the previous week, followed by 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Penghua and 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi, up 0.54% and 0.51% respectively [38]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Urban Investment Bond ETF Haifutong, and Convertible Bond ETF Haifutong led with premium rates of + 0.036%, + 0.039%, and + 0.035% respectively. In terms of scale change, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest (+ 6.171 billion yuan), Short - Term Financing ETF Haifutong (+ 4.33 billion yuan), and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Southern (+ 3.245 billion yuan) had the largest net inflows, while Convertible Bond ETF Boshi had a relatively large net outflow of - 1.864 billion yuan last week [38]. 3.6 基准做市信用债和科创债 ETF 的 PCF 清单边际变化 - For the PCF list of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs last week, among the products tracking the Shanghai market - making credit - bond index, Corporate Bond ETF Southern and Credit - Bond ETF Haifutong added 14 and 11 bonds to their PCF lists respectively, with the average modified durations of the newly added bonds being 3.65 years and 3.42 years respectively. Bond 21 Yuegao 01 was repeatedly removed from the PCF list of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs because it was about to mature, and Bond 25 Guolian K1 was included in the PCF lists of multiple products, with a modified duration of 3.9360 years [40]. - For the PCF list of science - innovation bond ETFs last week, the average duration of the newly added bonds of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong was relatively large, at 7.74 years. Science - Innovation Bond ETF Southern added a total of 144 bonds to its PCF list throughout the week due to a large inflow of funds (+ 3.245 billion yuan) [41]. - Bond 23 Gan Jiao K1 and other 2 bonds were repeatedly removed from the PCF lists of science - innovation bond ETFs, and 19 bonds such as 26 Yue Huan GK1 were included in the PCF lists of multiple science - innovation bond ETFs [44]. 3.7 债券 ETF 基金运营管理规则变更汇总 - In terms of the cash - substitution flag, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia changed all the cash - substitution flags of its PCF list to "must" on March 24 and March 25, 2026, and the net outflow amount of the product was 30 million yuan on both days [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 27, the scale of credit - bond ETFs reached 544.7 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan compared to March 20. The growth mainly came from some science - innovation bond ETFs, Haifutong Short - term Financing ETF, and Haifutong Urban Investment Bond ETF [1]. - The weekly scale of science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 12.2 billion yuan, the first increase this year. Jishi and Southern science - innovation bond ETFs had the top two growths of 6.2 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The weighted duration of most science - innovation bond ETFs decreased slightly as of March 27, with a median decline of 0.02 years. The duration of most benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs was basically stable, with Dacheng Credit - bond ETF having a relatively large increase of 0.2 years to 2.9 years [2]. - From March 23 - 27, science - innovation bond ETFs continued to focus on increasing holdings of 2 - 3 - year bonds, while benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs' main increase and decrease were also in 2 - 3 - year bonds [2]. - The trading activity remained low. From March 23 - 27, the number of trading transactions of science - innovation bond ETF component bonds accounted for 5% of credit - bonds, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week [2]. - The median spread of "non - component bonds - component bonds" of science - innovation bond ETFs widened by 1.6bp compared to the previous week, mainly due to a larger decline in the valuation of component bonds, which may be related to the recovery of the scale of science - innovation bond ETFs [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Credit - bond ETF Scale - As of March 27, the total scale of 35 credit - bond ETFs was 544.7 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan from March 20. Science - innovation bond ETFs, Haifutong Short - term Financing ETF, and Haifutong Urban Investment Bond ETF contributed to the growth. The scale of basic market - making credit - bond ETFs was basically stable, with an overall weekly increase of 0.5 billion yuan [1][5]. 3.2 Duration and Yield - As of March 27, the median durations of science - innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were 2.4 years and 2.5 years respectively, with corresponding static yields of 1.76% and 1.79% [2]. 3.3 Bond Holdings - From March 23 - 27, science - innovation bond ETFs increased holdings of 2 - 3 - year bonds and new bonds issued in 2026, and decreased holdings of bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year. Benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs mainly increased holdings in the commerce, transportation, and machinery industries and decreased holdings in the building decoration and comprehensive industries [2]. 3.4 Trading Activity - From March 23 - 27, the number of trading transactions of science - innovation bond ETF component bonds accounted for 5% of credit - bonds, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week [2]. 3.5 Spread - The median spread of "non - component bonds - component bonds" of science - innovation bond ETFs was 3.8bp, widening by 1.6bp compared to the previous week [2].

Group 1: Core Views - The credit bond market's short-term trends and operational rhythm will be primarily influenced by institutional behavior, with steepening yield curves, structural market characteristics, and increasing credit spread differentiation becoming core features [1][3]. Group 2: Fund Behavior - Fund behavior is significantly driven by liabilities, with a focus on duration and leverage. The pressure from the liability side directly influences asset allocation, leading to pro-cyclical trading behavior. Regulatory constraints on leverage and duration adjustments are closely tied to market conditions and liability pressures [1]. - The trend towards toolization and structural characteristics will continue to deepen in 2026, with new fee regulations leading to product substitution effects. The pace of opening amortized bond funds will be a key variable influencing the structural market characteristics of credit bonds [1]. Group 3: Wealth Management - Wealth management strategies are shifting towards a focus on holding to maturity, with trading attributes weakening. There is a clear seasonal pattern in bond allocation, with specific windows presenting opportunities for short-term spread compression [2]. - The stability of net asset values will be crucial in 2026, with the direction of fund flows impacting the demand structure for credit bonds [2]. Group 4: Insurance Sector - Insurance funds are becoming a core force in long-duration credit bond allocation, driven by the long-term nature of liabilities and the seasonal characteristics of premium income. The allocation rhythm is influenced by multiple factors, including interest rate timing and the search for alternative assets following a contraction in non-standard investments [2]. - A rebalancing between stocks and bonds is expected in 2026, with a cautious approach to credit allocations, particularly in lower-rated bonds [2][3]. Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The overall market for credit bonds in 2026 will be reshaped by the marginal behavioral changes of the three core allocation entities: funds, wealth management, and insurance. Key characteristics will include a continuation of steepening yield curves, structural market trends driven by product innovation and maturity rhythms, and cautious preferences in insurance allocations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The behavior of institutional investors has become a core variable influencing the short - to medium - term trends and operation rhythm of the credit bond market. The steepening of the yield curve, prominent structural market conditions, and intensified differentiation of credit spreads may be the core characteristics of the market [1][7]. - In 2026, the short - to medium - term trends and operation rhythm of the credit bond market will still be dominated by institutional behavior. The marginal behavioral changes of funds, wealth management, and insurance, the three core institutional investors, will reshape the market pattern in terms of term structure, spread trends, and variety differentiation [3][7][51]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fund: Significant Behavioral Elasticity Driven by Liabilities, Further Deepening of Instrumental and Structural Features in 2026 3.1.1 Core Bond Allocation Features: Dominated by Liabilities, Focus on Duration and Leverage - The redemption pressure on the liability side directly determines the asset - side allocation, leading to pro - cyclical trading behavior. A positive feedback loop exists between fund net value and investor redemptions. In a rising bond market, funds increase leverage and duration to allocate more credit bonds; in a falling market, forced selling occurs due to redemption pressure [11]. - The leverage ratio is subject to regulatory constraints, and duration adjustment is highly correlated with market conditions and liability - side pressure. The regulatory upper limits for the leverage ratio of open - end and closed - end bond funds are 140% and 200% respectively. Duration adjustment varies with market conditions and the stability of the liability side [11][12]. - Policy changes and concentrated product maturities in 2025 directly triggered significant fluctuations in fund bond allocation behavior. After the release of the fund fee regulations in September 2025, funds sold off bonds in advance. In November, the net purchase of credit bonds increased due to the maturity of amortized cost - method bond funds [12]. 3.1.2 Instrumental Trend Prominent in 2026, Sustained Structural Impact - Under the new fee regulations, product substitution effects are evident. Short - term trading becomes more instrumental, and medium - to long - term allocation focuses on performance. Bond ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit funds have replaced traditional short - term bond funds, increasing short - term credit bond trading activity and volatility. Medium - to long - term pure bond funds focus on duration timing and variety selection [15]. - The opening rhythm of amortized cost - method bond funds in 2026 remains a key variable, driving the structural market of credit bonds. Concentrated openings will lead to increased demand for 3 - 5 - year high - grade ordinary credit bonds, while dispersed openings will have a milder impact. The concentrated maturity periods in 2026 are March, May, June, and July [17]. - Pay attention to potential policy benefits for credit bond and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs. Scale expansion will drive the valuation repair and liquidity improvement of constituent bonds. As of March 24, 2026, the scale of 24 sci - tech innovation bond ETFs decreased by 8.91 billion yuan compared to the end of 2025, but the relative value of constituent bonds is prominent [20][23]. 3.2 Wealth Management: Challenges of Full Net - Value Transformation 3.2.1 Core Bond Allocation Features: Focus on Allocation, Weakened Trading, and Significant Seasonal Bond Allocation Patterns - Wealth management's bond allocation strategy is mainly hold - to - maturity, with weakened trading attributes. The allocation willingness is positively correlated with credit spreads. After the net - value transformation in 2022, wealth management shifted from trading to hold - to - maturity due to investors' low tolerance for net - value fluctuations. The bond - buying and - selling rhythm is affected by bank's seasonal balance - sheet returns, liability - side stability, and primary - market bond issuance [26][28]. - Seasonal bond allocation patterns are clear, and there are opportunities for short - term spread compression in specific windows. At the beginning of each quarter (April, July, October), there are usually opportunities to compress the credit spreads of short - term high - grade credit bonds such as 1 - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit and 2 - year - or - less AAA bonds [29]. 3.2.2 In 2026, Stabilizing Net Value is the Core, and the Direction of Fund Flows is Key - Under full net - value transformation, the function of wealth management as a stabilizer in the bond market is weakened, and low - volatility and high - liquidity assets are preferred. In a rising bond market, wealth management will moderately increase credit bond allocation without excessive leverage and duration extension; in a falling market, it will shorten duration and increase low - volatility asset holdings. This will intensify the term differentiation in the credit bond market [30]. - The peak of high - interest deposit repricing maturity will affect the demand structure of credit bonds. If funds flow into wealth management after high - interest deposits mature, it will support short - term high - grade credit bonds; if funds flow into the equity market, it may cause short - term disturbances in the bond market [34]. 3.3 Insurance: Stock - Bond Rebalancing in 2026 3.3.1 Core Bond Allocation Features: Liability - Driven Long - Term Allocation, Bond Allocation Rhythm Affected by Multiple Factors - Insurance funds have long - term liabilities with rigid costs, and premium income shows seasonal characteristics with a slowdown in growth. Insurance funds need to allocate long - term assets to match asset - liability duration. Premium income is concentrated in January, and the proportion of dividend - paying insurance may increase [39]. - The bond allocation rhythm is driven by multiple factors, with a significant characteristic of timing allocation at interest - rate peaks. Insurance funds prefer to participate in primary - market bond subscriptions, especially for long - term local government bonds and credit bonds. They also consider deposit yields and market interest rates when allocating bonds [40]. - Asset - side allocation is diversified, with local government bonds as the core allocation. After the contraction of non - standard assets, insurance funds are actively seeking alternative assets such as ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, local government bonds, fixed - income plus products, and overseas fixed - income assets. Insurance funds have significant pricing power for long - term credit bonds [44]. 3.3.2 Stock - Bond Rebalancing + New Accounting Standards in 2026, More Cautious Allocation Style - In a low - interest - rate environment, stock - bond rebalancing is initiated, increasing the proportion of equity asset allocation and restricting the incremental allocation of pure bonds. This may weaken the承接 force for long - term credit bonds, widen the spreads of long - term credit bonds, and intensify term differentiation in the credit bond market [47][49]. - After non - listed insurance companies fully implement the new accounting standards in 2026, the preference for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may further shrink, and credit risk appetite will be more cautious. This will intensify the grade spread differentiation and liquidity stratification in the credit bond market [50]. 3.4 Outlook on the Core Trends of the Credit Bond Market with Institutional Behavior Reshaping the Landscape - The credit bond yield curve will continue to steepen, and the ability to absorb long - term bonds may be limited. Wealth management focuses on short - term high - grade low - volatility assets, funds focus on short - to medium - term trading, and insurance may reduce long - term bond positions, leading to a steeper yield curve and potential widening of long - term credit spreads [51]. - Product innovation and maturity rhythms will drive a structural market, which will be the mainstream feature in 2026. The maturity rhythm of amortized cost - method bond funds will determine the phased allocation opportunities for 3 - 5 - year high - grade ordinary credit bonds, and the scale expansion of credit bond and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs will drive the valuation repair of constituent bonds [51][52]. - Changes in insurance allocation preferences may put continuous pressure on Tier 2 and perpetual bonds and low - to medium - grade credit bonds. The new accounting standards will affect the preference for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and the credit risk appetite of insurance will be more cautious, intensifying the grade spread differentiation [52].

Interest Rate Spread Overview - Since 2026, the bond market has performed well, with yields on government bonds and short-term notes generally declining[2] - The credit spread for short-term notes has narrowed, with changes mostly between 1-11 basis points (bp)[2] - The highest industry spread is in the real estate sector at 107bp, which expanded by 17bp due to the Vanke incident[2][9] - Other sectors with spreads above 45bp include information technology, agriculture, wholesale and retail, coal, and pharmaceuticals[2][9] Investment Strategy Insights - The government work report emphasizes structural opportunities in policy-supported sectors, particularly in consumption and technology innovation[3][4] - The report highlights the need to accelerate the cultivation of new consumption growth points, focusing on cultural tourism, events, and health care[3] - The commercial and personal services sector has a current spread of around 30bp, indicating potential for compression[3][10] - Continuous support for real estate policies is expected, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations and risk mitigation[5][7] Market Dynamics - The real estate sector's sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on sales[7] - The bond market sentiment has been affected by the outflow of technology innovation bonds (Tech Bonds), with a total reduction of 88.8 billion yuan as of March 11[6][10] - The spreads for AAA-rated industries are mostly compressing, while the real estate sector's spread has notably widened[17][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, the ChinaBond New Composite Index rose 0.02% throughout the week. Short - term and medium - to - long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.05% and 0.07% respectively. The ChinaBond AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - making Corporate Bond Index rose 0.06% and 0.07% respectively. Bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 804 million yuan in the past week, with different trends among different types of ETFs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fund Flows - As of March 20, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 804 million yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs had net outflows of 1.577 billion yuan, a net inflow of 5.35 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 4.577 billion yuan respectively. In credit - type ETFs, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 5.262 billion yuan, 158 million yuan, and 1.574 billion yuan respectively, while market - making credit bonds and sci - tech innovation bonds had net outflows of 535 million yuan and 1.11 billion yuan respectively. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs have had cumulative net inflows of 50.908 billion yuan, 470.265 billion yuan, and 30.175 billion yuan respectively, totaling 551.349 billion yuan [5]. 3.2. Net Value Performance - As of March 20, 2026, the net value trends of various types of bond ETF products were divergent. The 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF performed weakly, falling 0.28% throughout the week, while the China Development Bank Bond ETF and the Treasury Bond ETF Orient Fortune rose 0.08% and 0.07% respectively. The convertible - bond ETF and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF fell 3.06% and 2.96% respectively last week [6]. 3.3. Credit - Bond ETF and Sci - Tech Innovation Bond ETF Performance - As of March 20, 2026, the median net asset values per unit of credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 1.0184 and 1.0060 respectively, both rising 0.06% throughout the week. Among credit - bond ETFs, the E Fund Corporate Bond ETF performed relatively well, rising 0.08% throughout the week. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the ICBC Sci - Tech Innovation Bond ETF and the Yongying Sci - Tech Innovation Bond ETF performed relatively well. As of March 20, 2026, the median discount rate of credit - bond ETFs was 7 basis points, and that of sci - tech innovation bond ETFs was 9 basis points [7]. 3.4. Credit - Type ETF Duration Tracking - As of March 20, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.29 years, 2.02 years, and 2.06 years respectively. Among market - making credit - bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.45 years and 2.81 years respectively. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Sci - Tech Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Sci - Tech Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Sci - Tech Innovation Bond Index were 3.26 years, 3.21 years, and 3.10 years respectively [8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market dynamics in the context of the equity market fluctuations and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, on market sentiment and performance. Key Points and Arguments Changes in Stock-Bond Relationship - The relationship between stocks and bonds has undergone significant changes in 2026, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional analysis frameworks. The overlap between stock and bond investors is increasing, particularly due to the rise of "fixed income plus" products, which have seen rapid growth since the second half of 2025. This shift indicates that when "fixed income plus" funds face outflows, they may exert pressure on both stock and bond markets [2][3][4]. Bond Market Pressures - The bond market is expected to face pressure until mid-April 2026, with potential opportunities for buying in the second quarter. The anticipated selling pressure may come from the 5-10 year policy financial bonds and secondary capital bonds, which could be sold off to avoid losses in equity positions [1][2][3]. Inflation and Economic Recovery - Input inflation and endogenous economic recovery are compressing the bond market's trading window. Short-term inflation expectations are likely to rise, impacting the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will create pressure on the bond market. The market is expected to face upward interest rate expectations in both the short and long term [3][4]. Credit Bond ETF Market Dynamics - The credit bond ETF market has seen a significant decline in scale, with the Sci-Tech bond ETF and benchmark rate bond ETF dropping by approximately 90 billion and 27 billion respectively. This decline is attributed to a rapid growth effect at the end of 2025 and a weakening profit effect for credit bond ETFs [4][5]. Market Adjustments and Strategies - The recent adjustments in the A-share and convertible bond markets are primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.38%, falling below 4,000 points. The market is expected to exhibit high volatility and structural rotation, with a focus on sectors supported by performance, such as technology and energy [6][7][8]. Investment Strategies - In the current uncertain environment, a "steady progress" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on managing positions and waiting for valuation pressures to ease. Key strategies include: - Core positions in "double low" convertible bonds with relatively low prices and premium rates. - Elastic positions in equity-type convertible bonds with compressed premium rates to capture rebounds when conditions improve. - Investment themes centered around energy transition and technology sectors that are less affected by rising oil prices [8]. Other Important Insights - The bond market's core focus has shifted from the performance of equities to whether equity movements indicate rising prices or financing demands. The negative impact of rising energy prices on the bond market is expected to be more pronounced than before [2][3]. - The market's sensitivity to geopolitical events is anticipated to decrease over time, with a return to fundamental-driven pricing logic as the Chinese economy remains relatively stable [8].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the spread of credit bond ETFs is primarily influenced by two factors: market sentiment and calendar effects. Recent trends show that the spread of credit bond ETFs continues to recover due to strong certainty in the short to medium credit market [7][8]. Group 2 - In the primary issuance segment, net financing has increased. For the week of March 16 to March 20, 2026, short-term financing issued amounted to 1190.2 billion yuan, while maturing debt was 1100.1 billion yuan. The total issuance of major credit bond varieties reached 3824.3 billion yuan, with net financing of 949.7 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [16]. Group 3 - In the secondary trading segment, transaction volume increased, and the overall term spread widened. During the same week, major credit bond varieties had a total transaction volume of 9214 billion yuan, an increase of 865 billion yuan from the previous week. The yields on medium-term notes decreased overall, with the 3-year AAA medium-term note yield down by 1.9 basis points to 1.78% [19][20].

Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence between short-term and long-term bond performance, with credit bond ETFs experiencing continued outflows [3][5] - As of March 13, 2026, bond ETFs saw a total net outflow of 11.575 billion yuan over the past week, with specific outflows from interest rate, credit, and convertible bond ETFs [3][4] Market Performance - The China Bond Composite Index fell by 0.08% over the past week, while short-term pure bond funds rose by 0.03% and medium to long-term pure bond funds fell by 0.01% [3] - The 30-year government bond ETF showed a weak performance, declining by 1.49%, while the national development bond ETF and the national development ETF increased by 0.05% and 0.04%, respectively [3][4] Fund Flows - As of March 13, 2026, the net inflows for credit bond ETFs included 2.212 billion yuan for short-term bonds, 0.199 billion yuan for corporate bonds, and 0.721 billion yuan for urban investment bonds, while market-making credit bonds saw a net outflow of 3.206 billion yuan and sci-tech bonds experienced a net outflow of 5.066 billion yuan [3][4] ETF Performance - The median unit net value for credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs stood at 1.0178 and 1.0054, respectively, with the former remaining flat and the latter declining by 0.01% [4] - The median duration for short-term bond ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.30 years, 1.99 years, and 2.02 years, respectively [4]