Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with a shift in investor preference towards equities anticipated for 2026 due to declining risk premiums and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has seen a strong performance over the past four years, primarily due to a lack of attractive returns in the equity market, leading investors to favor lower-risk bond assets [2]. - A significant drop in risk premiums indicates a rising risk appetite among investors, which is likely to result in a decline in bond prices and an increase in stock market performance [2]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for macroeconomic policies, emphasizing proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to enhance investor sentiment towards economic recovery [2]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - Investors should adjust their strategies in light of potential economic recovery, focusing on early indicators of corporate profitability such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. - Recommendations for bond investors include reducing duration by holding shorter-duration bonds and increasing exposure to equity-linked products like convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds to enhance returns [3]. - In the current interest rate environment, the choice between pure bond funds, convertible bond funds, and ETFs tracking government and technology innovation bonds should be based on the investor's outlook on interest rates and economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Product Insights - Pure bond funds are focused solely on bond assets, requiring careful attention to the fund manager's ability to adjust the portfolio based on credit and interest rate research [4]. - Government bond ETFs track government bond indices and are sensitive to interest rate changes, while technology innovation bonds carry additional credit risks, potentially offering higher returns [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese ETF market has entered the "trillion yuan manager era," with China Asset Management becoming the first public fund company to surpass 1 trillion yuan in ETF management scale [2][3] - The domestic ETF market has experienced explosive growth, with total scale projected to jump from 3.73 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 6.02 trillion yuan by the end of the year, marking an increase of over 2 trillion yuan [5] - The competition among ETF managers is intensifying, with China Asset Management and E Fund leading the market, both nearing the 1 trillion yuan mark [3][5] ETF Market Growth - As of January 12, 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China reached 6.02 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from long-term capital such as central financial institutions and pension funds [5] - China Asset Management and E Fund saw their ETF scales grow by 2,987.3 billion yuan and 2,790.23 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 45.4% and 46.4% [5][7] - The top 10 ETF managers now have a scale threshold exceeding 200 billion yuan, indicating a highly competitive environment [5][8] Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by a "Matthew effect," where the top three managers (China Asset Management, E Fund, and Huatai-PB) account for 41.3% of the total market, while the top 10 managers hold 75.6% [8] - Notable "star products" like the CSI A500 ETF and the Sci-Tech Bond ETF have become focal points for institutional competition, with significant monthly growth in their scales [9][11] - Smaller public fund companies are adopting a "boutique" model, focusing on niche products such as commodity ETFs and innovative thematic ETFs to differentiate themselves in a crowded market [13]

Core Insights - The development of bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is crucial for enhancing financial strategies and promoting high-quality economic growth [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The bond ETF market experienced explosive growth in 2025, with the total net asset value reaching 748.7 billion yuan, a 330% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - By December 23, 2025, the number of bond ETFs increased from 20 to 53, marking a 165% growth, with 33 new products launched in 2025, 24 of which became billion-yuan products [2] - The market is diversifying, with credit bond ETFs dominating, accounting for 71.5% of the total net asset value, while the newly approved Sci-Tech bond ETFs have also gained significant traction [3][4] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - The bond ETF market has substantial growth potential, with a penetration rate of 46% compared to 82% for stock ETFs, indicating over 100% growth potential [5] - Compared to the U.S. market, where bond ETFs account for over 38% of the total bond fund market, China's bond ETF market still has significant room for expansion [5] Group 3: Driving Factors for Growth - The growth in bond ETFs is driven by a combination of a loose monetary policy, increased liquidity, and a shift in investor preference towards stable returns amid equity market volatility [6] - The transition to passive investment strategies has highlighted the advantages of bond ETFs over traditional bond funds, making them more appealing to institutional and individual investors [7][8] Group 4: Current Challenges - Despite the growth, the supply and variety of bond ETFs remain insufficient, with only 0.04% of the total bond market represented by bond ETFs, significantly lower than the 64% for stock ETFs [10] - The current product offerings are limited, lacking comprehensive coverage of various bond types and longer-term products, which restricts investor interest [11] Group 5: Recommendations for Development - It is recommended to accelerate product approvals and diversify the bond ETF offerings to include innovative types such as green bonds and local government bonds [14] - Suggestions include easing restrictions on bank participation in bond ETF trading and recognizing certain bond ETFs as high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) to enhance liquidity [15] - The development of comprehensive credit bond index ETFs that cover both interbank and exchange markets is advised to meet diverse investor needs [16]

Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Overview - The total scale of credit bond ETFs is 548.6 billion yuan, with a daily decrease of 7.48 billion yuan, including a decline of 1.6 billion yuan for benchmark market-making ETFs and 4.02 billion yuan for sci-tech bond ETFs [1] - The median weighted duration is 3.2 years, indicating the sensitivity of the ETFs to interest rate changes [1] - The overall transaction amount is 69.7 billion yuan, with an average single transaction amount of 420,000 yuan (330,000 yuan for benchmark market-making and 730,000 yuan for sci-tech bonds) [1] Group 2: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 106.75 yuan [4] - Over the past year, the company bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.32% [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 34.005 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year [4] Group 3: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The company bond ETF had a turnover rate of 1.64% with a transaction volume of 556 million yuan, averaging 2.024 billion yuan in daily transactions over the past month [4] - Recent fund inflows for the company bond ETF have been balanced, with a total of 27.7 million yuan "absorbed" over the last five trading days [4] - The latest financing buy amount for the company bond ETF reached 6.2337 million yuan, with a financing balance of 2.8446 million yuan [4] Group 4: Tracking and Management - The company bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index, which serves as a performance benchmark for medium to high-grade corporate bonds [5] - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [4] - The tracking error for the company bond ETF this year is 0.004%, indicating high tracking accuracy [4]

上周（1/5-1/9）债券型 ETF 资金净流出 631 亿元，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 分别净流出 561 亿元、净流 出 96 亿元、净流入 27 亿元。业绩表现来看，相较于上周，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 累计单位净值周度 涨跌幅分别为-0.01%、-0.17%、+3.86%。 发行进度跟踪： 上周无新发行债券 ETF。 存量产品跟踪： 上周（1/5-1/9）债券型 ETF 资金净流出 631 亿元，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 分别净流出 561 亿元、净流 出 96 亿元、净流入 27 亿元。业绩表现来看，相较于上周，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 累计单位净值周度 涨跌幅分别为-0.01%、-0.17%、+3.86%。相较于上周，利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF、可转债 ETF 流通市值分别减少 105 亿 元、减少 386 亿元、增加 53 亿元。从信用债 ETF 来看，基准做市信用债 ETF、科创债 ETF 流通市值分别为 1199 亿元、 3110 亿元，较上周分别减少 71 亿元、减少 440 亿元。 ETF 业绩跟 ...

信用型 ETF 资金流出，久期下降 ——债券 ETF 跟踪 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2026 年 01 月 12 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 分析师：苏恩民 执业证书编号：S0740525070002 Email：suem@zts.com.cn 资金流向 相关报告 截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，债券型 ETF 近一周合计净流出 643.52 亿元，利率型、信用 型、可转债型 ETF 分别净流出 104.54 亿元、净流出 592.24 亿元、净流入 53.25 亿 元。具体拆分来看，信用型 ETF 中，短融、公司债、城投债分别净流出 83.94 亿元、 净流入 2.42 亿元、净流出 0.06 亿元，做市信用债净流出 70.71 亿元，科创债净流出 439.95 亿元。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，利率型、信用型、可转债 ETF 自 2025 年以来 累计净流入分别为 659.23 亿元、5010.41 亿元、231.51 亿元，合计达 5901.15 亿元。 净值表现 全周来看，各类型债券 ETF 产品净值走 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 信用债 ETF 规模"先升后降" 近期信用债 ETF 规模呈现"先升后降"。2025 年 12 月中旬开始，信用债 ETF 规模迅速上升，由 12 月 12 日的 5092 亿元升至年底的 6152亿元。进入 2026年，1月 9 日规模相较 2025 年底下降 591亿元至 5561亿元。 其中科创债 ETF1 月 9 日规模较去年 12 月 12 日增长 460 亿元，增幅 17%，而基准做市信用债 ETF 规模变动不 大。科创债 ETF 中，银华增幅最高（104%），规模增长 113 亿元，其次为嘉实、汇添富、兴业，规模增幅均在 25%以上，增长超过 40 亿元。 观察 PCF 持仓券加权久期，本周 19 只科创债 ETF 继续微降久期，占比 79%，延续了 12 月以来久期整体 下降的趋势，降幅中位数为 0.03 年。其中，广发科创债 ETF 久期下降 0.19年至 2.9 年，降幅最大；仅 4 只产品 拉升久期，拉升幅度最高为 0.14 年。基准做市信用债 ETF 同样小幅降久期，8 只 ...

从结构上看，年内债券ETF的增量主要来自基准做市信用债ETF与科创债ETF两大方向。相关产品均为 年内首次上市的新品类，在较短时间内实现规模积累，不仅带动债券ETF整体体量快速提升，也进一步 丰富了信用债领域的指数化投资工具供给。 新品类集中放量，债券ETF规模突破8000亿元 过去一年，债券ETF市场迎来显著扩容，总规模突破8000亿元，规模与品类同步抬升，成为 ETF体系中变化最为集中的板块之一。 截至2025年12月31日，全市场债券ETF总规模达8290.24亿元，较年初增长6550.51亿元，增幅位居各类 ETF之首，成为2025年扩容最为显著的ETF品种之一。 在业内人士看来，债券ETF的持续扩容，反映出债券投资正加快向更加透明、高效的指数化路径演进。 伴随交易机制优化和产品体系完善，债券ETF在中长期资金配置中的作用正逐步凸显，其在资产配置体 系中的定位亦有望进一步提升。 沪上一位基金评价人士指出，从投资属性看，相较于传统债券基金，债券ETF在交易机制、透明度以及 组合稳定性等方面具备一定优势。 一方面，ETF产品依托交易所上市交易，流动性相对更为可控，投资者可根据市场情况灵活进行申赎和 调仓； ...

Core Insights - The bond ETF market has experienced significant expansion, surpassing 800 billion yuan in total scale last year, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the ETF market [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the total scale of bond ETFs reached 829.02 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 655.05 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, marking the highest growth rate among all ETF categories [1] - The growth of bond ETFs is primarily driven by the introduction of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs, which have rapidly accumulated scale since their launch in 2025 [1][3] Market Structure - The sci-tech bond ETFs have shown remarkable performance, with 16 products tracking the CSI AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Company Bond Index, totaling a management scale of 280.75 billion yuan; 6 products tracking the SSE AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Company Bond Index with a scale of 67.39 billion yuan; and 2 products linked to the SZSE AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Company Bond Index with a total scale of 7.19 billion yuan [1] - The benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs have also become a significant growth driver, with products tracking the SSE Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bond Index reaching a management scale of 79.86 billion yuan, and those tracking the SZSE Benchmark Market-Making Credit Bond Index at 47.56 billion yuan [3] - Currently, there are 53 bond ETFs in the market, accounting for only 3.78% of all ETFs, but their net asset value has significantly increased to 13.77%, indicating strong investor recognition [3] Industry Trends - The continuous expansion of bond ETFs signifies a shift towards a more transparent and efficient index-based investment approach in the bond market [3] - Compared to traditional bond funds, bond ETFs offer significant advantages in trading mechanisms, transparency, and portfolio stability, making them attractive for medium to long-term investment in the current market environment characterized by declining interest rates and increasing credit differentiation [3] - The two new categories of bond ETFs serve distinct functions: benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs enhance trading efficiency and pricing continuity, while sci-tech bond ETFs provide investors with an alternative way to participate in financing within the technology sector [4]

过去一年，债券ETF市场迎来显著扩容，总规模突破8000亿元，规模与品类同步抬升，成为ETF体系中变化 最为集中的板块之一。 从结构上看，年内债券ETF的增量主要来自基准做市信用债ETF与科创债ETF两大方向。相关产品均为年内首 次上市的新品类，在较短时间内实现规模积累，不仅带动债券ETF整体体量快速提升，也进一步丰富了信用债 领域的指数化投资工具供给。 在业内人士看来，债券ETF的持续扩容，反映出债券投资正加快向更加透明、高效的指数化路径演进。伴随交 易机制优化和产品体系完善，债券ETF在中长期资金配置中的作用正逐步凸显，其在资产配置体系中的定位亦 有望进一步提升。 新品类集中放量，债券ETF规模突破8000亿元 截至2025年12月31日，全市场债券ETF总规模达8290.24亿元，较年初增长6550.51亿元，增幅位居各类ETF之 首，成为2025年扩容最为显著的ETF品种之一。 沪上一位基金评价人士指出，从投资属性看，相较于传统债券基金，债券ETF在交易机制、透明度以及组合稳 定性等方面具备一定优势。 一方面，ETF产品依托交易所上市交易，流动性相对更为可控，投资者可根据市场情况灵活进行申赎和调仓； ...