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净流入38亿!金属铜大幅增仓
证券时报· 2025-10-27 08:22
Core Viewpoint - The current copper-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, indicating potential for copper price increases following a rise in gold prices. The market sentiment remains bullish due to structural supply shortages anticipated in the copper market [6][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 24, the copper futures market saw a net inflow of 3.871 billion yuan, with significant positions being built up, leading to a total capital scale of 46.059 billion yuan in copper futures, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [1][3]. - As of October 24, the domestic copper futures main contract closed at 87,660 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai spot electrolytic copper price surpassed 86,500 yuan/ton, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price approached 11,000 USD/ton [3][4]. - The copper price surge has led to strong performance in the listed companies within the non-ferrous sector, with notable increases in stock prices, such as a 99.36% rise for Tongling Nonferrous Metals and a 178.76% rise for Luoyang Molybdenum [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is entering a structural tightness cycle, with predictions of a 150,000-ton supply shortage by 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years. This is attributed to insufficient capital expenditure in global copper mining and declining ore grades [6][7]. - Demand for copper is shifting from traditional industrial uses to technology and energy sectors, driven by global energy transitions and advancements in AI, which are expected to elevate copper's strategic importance [6][7]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the second-largest globally, has faced production cuts due to safety incidents, further exacerbating supply constraints [3][7].