铜专题报告：测度不同性质的 美国铜超额库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-3-2 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 本轮特朗普任期关税和关键矿产时间线梳理 | 美东时间 | 关税内容 | | --- | --- | | 2月1日 | 特朗普签署行政令，从2月4日起对进口自墨西哥、加拿大两国的商品加征25%的关税，其中对加拿大能源产品的加税幅度为10%，对中国加征10%的关税。 | | 2月10日 | 美国总统特朗普签署行政令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税，新税率将于3月12日生效。 | | 2月25日 | 美国总统特朗普依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款启动铜进口调查，涵盖原料铜、精炼铜、铜合金等全品类。市场普遍预期2025年铜关税可能达到25%。 | | 2月27日 | 特朗普宣布，对加拿大和墨西哥加征的25%关税将于3月4日如期生效。同时他称,对中国商品的关税也将在同一天额外增加10%。 | | 3月6日 | 美国总统 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 铜周报 20260301 中东地缘扰动加剧， 沪铜预计偏强运行 节后沪铜盘面震荡上行 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 节后铜现货供应压力增加，铜现货贴水承压走扩 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数平均价为-50.43美元/吨，与节前基本持平、仍低 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据钢联，本周港口铜精矿库存环比增4.6万吨至51.4万吨 精废价差较节前有所回落 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 10 8 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内2月生产天数减少、电解铜产量预计环比降但同比增；3月产量预计重新提升 铜现货进口窗口关闭 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年03月01日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：弱现实但强预期，叠加地缘政治扰动，阶段提升市场风险情绪 强弱分析：震荡偏强，价格区间：100000-120000元/吨 国内铜社会库存持续增加 铜精矿加工费持续弱势 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 01-02 01-13 01-23 02-03 02-17 02-28 03-12 03-24 04-06 04-17 04-29 05-14 05-26 06-06 06-18 06-30 07-11 07-23 08-04 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-19 10-07 10-18 10-30 11-11 11-22 12-04 12-16 12-27 万吨 国内铜社会总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

南华期货铜产业周报 ——美伊事件下，铝带动铜上涨 南华有色金属研究团队 傅小燕 投资咨询证号：Z0002675 联系邮箱：fxiaoyan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026/03/01 第一章 核心矛盾与策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 节后首周美伊矛盾激化，美国对伊朗的军事打击，以及由此引发的霍尔木兹海峡关闭，将影响下周有色金属 市场价格走势，尤其是铝价格。对于铜价来说，大周期级别看上涨弹性大于下跌弹性，短期尽管高库存压制 涨幅，但情绪偏多令估值上移。 基本面上，节后市场依然处于累库阶段，产业链端企业开工率尚未完全恢复，预估元宵节后开工率会大幅回 升。这导致价格在突破102000-103000区间后，未能继续向上大幅上涨。此外，期限结构呈现正向市场结 构，也反映出市场的谨慎情绪。 基于模型推断，阴极铜当前阶段: 上涨中期 -趋势向上，周期中性；LME铜当前阶段: 上涨中期 -趋势向上，周 期中性 沪铜做多风险收益比1.09（中等风险收益比，适度参与），伦铜做多风险收益率1.15（中等风险收益比，适 度参与）。 远期核心矛盾将转变为强劲的实物供需基本面，能否抵消宏观政策 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：王伟伟/F0257412、Z0001897/ 一德期货有色金属分析师 沪铜（CU）速览卡 1993年3月沪铜期货在上海期货交易所上市交易，以沪铜2604主力合约2月27日收盘价103，920元/吨计 算，一手沪铜期货保证金（交易所标准12%）占用约62，352元。 合约基本信息 交易单位：5吨/手 交易时间：9：00~10：15，10：30~11：30；13：30~15：00；21：00~次日1：00 合约月份：1-12月 最后交易日：合约月份的15日（遇国家法定节假日顺延，春节月份可另行调整） 交割基本信息 交割方式：实物交割，支持期货转现货、完税交割与保税交割 交割单位：25吨 最后交割日：最后交易日后第2个交易日 铜作为全球核心工业金属，兼具商品与金融双重属性，被誉为"铜博士"，其价格走势是全球经济的重要 晴雨表。 全球铜矿资源高度集中，智利、秘鲁等前五大国控制全球56%储量，中国储量仅占4.1%，但精炼铜产量 占全球43%，形成"资源在外、加工在内"的格局。需求端正从传统领域向新能源转型，电力行业仍为消 费主力，新能源汽车、光伏等 ...

沪铜产业日报 2026/2/26 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 102,670.00 | +210.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,275.00 | -47.50↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -260.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 184,703.00 | +74655.00↑ | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -67,640.00 | +2750.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 249,650.00 | +6475.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 272,475.00 | +23564.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 12,525.00 | +1600.00↑ | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 289,219.00 | -2856.00↓ ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：等待下游复产，基本面边际改善预期 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日低开高走，日内小幅上涨。22 日，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）表示， 将从美国东部时间 2 月 24 日起停止征收依据《国际紧急经济权力法》开征的关税。同在 20 日，特朗普在最高法院裁决公布后宣布，依据美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条，对全 球商品加征 10%的进口关税，为期 150 天，以取代被最高法院认定违法的关税。基本面 来看，假期间上游冶炼负荷相对正常，SMM 数据显示，1 月产量较预期多 1.57 万吨，预 计 2 月回归正常。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜预计产量环比减少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同 比上升 8.06%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月 增长 4.00%。下游工厂尚未开启完全的复产复工，整体市场交投活跃度低，同时由于假 期期间下游需求端暂停，上游产量正常，故铜社会库存量大幅累积增加。瑞银预计美联 储将继续实行宽松的货币政策，并预测在今年九月底前将有两次各 25 个基点的降息，美 元走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC is running at a low level, and the expectation of tight ore still provides solid support for copper prices. On the supply side, smelters shut down during the holiday and the number of production days was relatively small. Coupled with the tightening of the import window, the arrival volume decreased, and the domestic copper supply decreased. On the demand side, after the holiday is the traditional domestic consumption peak season, and with the support of policies for consumption, the overall industry outlook is positive. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.67, a month - on - month increase of 0.2874, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The summary of the view is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 101,510.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,130.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,029.00 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 160.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 300.00 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 50.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 130,714.00 lots, a daily decrease of 8,909.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 60,673.00 lots, a daily increase of 4,904.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 241,825.00 tons, a daily increase of 6,675.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 272,475.00 tons, a weekly increase of 23,564.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,525.00 tons, a daily increase of 250.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 277,089.00 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 600,436.00 short tons, a daily increase of 1,734.00 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,455.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,220.00 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 101,720.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,345.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 34.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 55.00 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 90.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 - month spread is - 83.60 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 0.55 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 50.53 US dollars/kiloton, a weekly increase of 1.84 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,680.00 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 1,710.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,380.00 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 1,710.00 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,800.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons per month, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons per month, an increase of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,990.00 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1,200.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 80,950.00 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1,350.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons per month, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, an increase of 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 ten - thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 ten - thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 43.97%, a daily increase of 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.59%, a daily increase of 0.05%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 31.69%, an increase of 0.0920. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.67, an increase of 0.2874 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Iran issue: Trump said he prefers to reach an agreement with Iran rather than go to war. US envoys Witkoff and Kushner will participate in a new round of US - Iran negotiations. US media reported that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that the risk of military action against Iran is extremely high and it is easy to fall into a long - term conflict. - Trump's tariffs: The European Parliament suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned that countries that do not comply with trade agreements with the US will face higher tariffs. US House Speaker Johnson said that there is no precedent for tariff rebates, and it will be decided by the White House. The British Prime Minister's spokesman said that all measures are under consideration. The Trump administration is considering imposing new "national security tariffs" on six industries, which may cover large - scale batteries, pig iron and iron accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment. - The US Supreme Court announced the ruling of the tariff lawsuit, ruling that the reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and other related tariffs imposed by the US government on relevant trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that it is comprehensively evaluating the relevant content and impact. China urges the US to cancel the relevant unilateral tariff measures imposed on trading partners. China noted that the US is preparing to take trade investigations and other alternative measures to maintain the tariffs imposed on trading partners, and China will closely monitor this and firmly safeguard China's interests. - The director of the Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, Ren Yuzhi, said that a new energy system and a series of sub - field energy plans will be released and implemented. On the one hand, solidly promote the construction of strategic and landmark major projects, safely and orderly promote the construction of the Yalong River hydropower project, layout and construct wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Three North" regions, integrated water - wind - solar bases in the southwest, coastal nuclear power bases, and offshore wind power bases, and optimize the construction of backbone channels for electricity, oil and gas. On the other hand, accelerate the construction of a number of "small and beautiful" projects, implement the project to improve the electric vehicle charging network, layout and construct several integrated bases of wind - solar - hydrogen - ammonia - alcohol, and build a number of solar thermal power generation projects. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that if the employment data in February is strong, he may tend to suspend interest rate hikes. The potential inflation rate is close to the 2% target level [2]

Group 1 - CME Group has received an application from Kodiak Warehouse LLC to establish a copper delivery warehouse in Lemont, Illinois, which would be the only approved base metal warehouse in the state if granted [2] - The total copper storage capacity of CME across the U.S. is 1.1 million short tons, with over half located in Louisiana, where the New Orleans hub is reportedly operating at full capacity [2] - In anticipation of potential import tariffs next year, traders have increased shipments to the U.S., resulting in COMEX copper inventories reaching a record 595,518 short tons (approximately 540,245 metric tons) [2] Group 2 - The application from Kodiak is the fourth new copper storage facility application received by CME this year, although one application has been withdrawn [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has warehouses in Chicago, but they have not stored any copper since 2022 [2] - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that it is advisable to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai copper market has experienced significant fluctuations before the holiday, influenced by external market news and precious metal sentiment. Although the fundamentals may improve after the downstream resumes production, the market is easily affected by overseas news and external non - ferrous metals, leading to amplified volatility [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai copper was affected by external market news and precious metal sentiment, resulting in significant fluctuations. Subsequently, it gradually stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply - demand logic before the holiday was a double - reduction situation. In January, the production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of SMM China electrolytic copper will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The news of expanding copper reserves has stimulated the market to rise, amplifying the expectation of tight supply. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, the downstream industry replenished raw materials, but as the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, the downstream entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases decreased marginally. The price of Shanghai copper is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industrial anti - involution at the lower end and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions at the upper end [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. - Spot: On February 11, 2026, the spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 50 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 13,383 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 177,200 tons, an increase of 8,282 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 192,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 592,500 short tons, an increase of 1,248 short tons from the previous period [13].