Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2026, copper prices fluctuated in three stages, showing a "first rise then fall" pattern, and the capital trading driver switched from "interest rate cut" to "stagflation." In Q2, the copper market will enter a critical stage of game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals. The copper price will generally present a pattern of "shock - biased upward and structural differentiation," and the core logic of price operation will gradually shift from "liquidity - driven" to "supply - demand driven" [1]. - Assuming that the Middle East conflict does not escalate further, the Fed maintains high interest rates, and China's power grid investment and the US data center construction progress steadily, the copper price is expected to bottom out in April and rebound from May to June. The estimated price range is 93,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 11,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - **Core View**: Q1 2026 copper prices were affected by multiple factors, showing a "first rise then fall" three - stage fluctuation. Q2 will be a critical stage of game, with the copper price pattern of "shock - biased upward and structural differentiation" and the logic shift from "liquidity - driven" to "supply - demand driven" [1]. - **Price Estimation**: Assuming certain conditions, the copper price is expected to bottom out in April and rebound from May to June. The estimated price range is 93,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 11,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Copper processing enterprises can build long - hedging positions in batches in the range of 91,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. When the price is in different ranges, different hedging ratios can be configured. In addition, options strategies suitable for shock markets can be considered, and call options can be sold to reduce inventory costs when the market turns weak in advance [2]. Chapter 2: Market Review - **Q1 2026 Copper Price Fluctuation**: It showed a "first rise then fall, three - stage fluctuation" feature. The first stage was the early - year rush (early January - mid - January); the second stage was the high - level shock and policy game (mid - January - mid - February); the third stage was the geopolitical conflict and macro - shift (late February - mid - March) [6][7]. - **Influencing Factors**: The core influencing factor in Q1 2026 was the macro - environment, followed by the industry, and finally market sentiment and funds [7]. Chapter 3: Core Points of Concern 3.1 Valuation: The Actual Impact of Sulfur Supply Disruption on Copper Mines - **Cost Impact**: About 70% - 90% of the variable cost of copper mines is related to energy prices. When the oil price rises by more than 50%, the cash cost of copper mining enterprises will rise by more than 6%. Some mining enterprises have raised their 2026 C1 cash costs [14]. - **Output Impact**: The Middle East conflict may lead to the interruption of sulfur exports, the rise of sulfuric acid prices, and the increase of wet - process copper smelting costs, resulting in limited production in African copper mines. If the Middle East conflict lasts for more than 3 months, the supply - side shock will become the core driving force for the rise of copper prices [14]. 3.2 Driver: Macro - Interest Rate Cut & Industrial Cycle Resonance 3.2.1 Macro - Driver: Extreme Strengthening of Financial Attributes - **Abnormal Asset Linkage**: In Q1, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupted the market rhythm. There were several abnormalities in asset linkage, such as the weakening of the negative correlation between gold and real interest rates, the weak follow - up of industrial metals, and the divergence between the CRB metal index and the S&P 500 [17]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The probability of interest rate hike is small, and the expectation of interest rate cut still exists. It is recommended to closely track the repair progress of the copper - gold ratio as a key signal to judge whether the copper price can shift from "liquidity - driven" to "demand - driven" [20][23]. 3.2.2 Industrial Driver: Tight Supply Constraint and Accelerated Structural Transformation of Global Copper Supply and Demand in Q2 2026 - **Supply - Side**: - **Global Mine Output**: In 2026, the absolute output of mines increases, but the relative output decreases. The global mine - end production increase is limited, and the copper resource trade flow is changing. The shortage of raw materials drags down the smelting capacity [23][25][38]. - **Specific Mine Situations**: In January 2026, the main contributors to the increase in global copper mine production were Peru, Zambia/Democratic Republic of the Congo, and China, while the main drag regions were Chile and Indonesia. Some mining enterprises' production is affected by various factors such as labor disputes and slow resumption of production [27]. - **Trade Flow Changes**: In Q1 2026, the global copper mine trade was transforming from "benchmark pricing" to "bilateral bargaining." China was re - constructing the supply chain security boundary through long - term contracts and overseas investment. The import sources of copper in China and the US also changed [38][40][47]. - **Smelting Capacity**: In January 2026, the global refined copper capacity utilization rate decreased. The internal structure of refined copper production was differentiated, with the production of recycled copper increasing significantly. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were the main contributors to the growth of global refined copper production [51]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Global Demand**: In January 2026, the global refined copper demand increased year - on - year, and the supply surplus narrowed. Energy - transition - related demand offset the decline in traditional industries, but there was obvious regional differentiation [57]. - **China**: In Q1 2026, the real estate and home appliance industries in China dragged down copper consumption, while power grid investment, new energy vehicles, and renewable energy were the main contributors. However, the growth rate of copper consumption in new energy vehicles decreased, and power grid investment and renewable energy will support future copper consumption [59]. - **US**: In Q1 2026, the consumption structure of copper in the US market changed, with the proportion of the real estate/construction industry decreasing, and the proportions of the power/grid, renewable energy, and data center construction industries increasing. The new installed power generation capacity in 2026 far exceeded expectations, and the copper consumption will increase significantly [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report adjusted the global (including China) mine output, smelting capacity, import volume, inventory, and consumption volume, and provided the supply - demand balance sheet for reference [75]. Chapter 4: Outlook and Strategy - **Outlook**: In Q2, the copper market will enter a critical stage of game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals. The copper price will show a pattern of "shock - biased upward and structural differentiation," and the price logic will shift from "liquidity - driven" to "supply - demand driven." Assuming certain conditions, the copper price is expected to bottom out in April and rebound from May to June, with the estimated price range of 93,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 11,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [78][79]. - **Strategy**: Copper processing enterprises can build long - hedging positions in batches in the range of 91,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies suitable for shock markets can be considered, and call options can be sold to reduce inventory costs when the market turns weak in advance [80][81].

Report Title - "Middle East Impact Continues, Copper and Aluminum Prices Diverge - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2026.03.30" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, European and American stock markets are under pressure to adjust, and the overall inventory is high. Copper prices may continue to adjust this week. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [90,000, 98,000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - pressure from high oil prices is unfavorable to non - ferrous metals, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [23,500, 25,000] [4]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pressure of alumina remains, but the Middle East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have a certain impact on market expectations. Pay attention to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2,800, 3,100] [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Weekly Market Data (2026.3.20 - 2026.3.27)**: For copper, the average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 95,950 yuan/ton to 95,690 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of CU increased from 94,740 yuan/ton to 95,930 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 23,870 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of AL decreased from 24,020 yuan/ton to 23,935 yuan/ton. For alumina, the spot price index increased from 2,752 yuan/ton to 2,776 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of A0 decreased from 3,041 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [8]. - **Weekly News**: Chile's Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its copper production cost by about 5%, and sets the 2026 copper production target range at 133 - 136 million tons. Iran attacked two aluminum production facilities in the Middle East, exacerbating the already tense global supply situation. The San Ciprian electrolytic aluminum plant of Alcoa has restored 90% of its production capacity and plans to reach full - load production by mid - year [11]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas Market**: The Middle East conflict continues. Before the attack, the international aluminum spot market had a high premium. The London Exchange aluminum price premium was around $60/ton, reaching a 19 - year high. The US aluminum ingot spot premium also remained at a historical high of over $2,293/ton [13]. - **This Week's Macroeconomic Forecast**: Key events and data include the Middle East war situation, China's March official manufacturing PMI, the US March ISM manufacturing index, the US February durable goods orders final value, the US March non - farm payrolls change, and the US March unemployment rate [14]. 03. Non - Ferrous Metals Market Analysis 1.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Futures Market**: Presented the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures from 2022 to 2026 [20]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Market Inventory**: Presented the historical trends of LME copper inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, COMEX copper inventory, and Shanghai bonded area copper inventory from 2022 to 2026 [26]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate will increase by 0.59 percentage points to 83.76% this week [28]. 1.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory from 2022 to 2026 [31]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions from 2022 to 2026 [34]. - **Overseas Market**: Presented the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory from 2022 to 2026 [37]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 64% month - on - month, but the overall level was still lower than the same period last year [39]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 26th, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 24,300 yuan/ton. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials from 2025 to 2026 [45]. 1.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 26th, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89 million tons, and the operating rate was 75.14%. The demand for alumina slightly increased [55]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of March 27th, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,817.16 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 41.75 yuan/ton [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices may show a weakening oscillation due to the Middle - East war situation suppressing market risk appetite. However, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices [1]. Nickel - The Indonesian export tax news has brought short - term sentiment boost, but the macro - economic outlook is uncertain. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory digestion is insufficient. The nickel price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 134,000 - 142,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong recently. The news and the tight raw material supply provide support. The steel mill production is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract referring to 14,200 - 14,800 [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance has boosted market sentiment. The fundamental reality has weakened marginally in the short - term but still has resilience. The price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 160,000 - 172,000 [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The short - term main contract is expected to run in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by supply - side constraints. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April, and the core operating range of Shanghai aluminum this week is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It may show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the second quarter, and the short - term price is expected to run in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Copper - The copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the inventory pressure has weakened. But the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 [13]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The contradiction lies between the mine and smelting ends. The smelting cost supports the zinc price. The downstream may replenish inventory in the peak season, and the export space may be opened. The zinc price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound on the right - hand side can be arranged [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in the second quarter, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [16]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.17%, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 10%. The import loss decreased by 19.10% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 and 2605 - 2606 decreased, while those of 2606 - 2607 and 2607 - 2608 increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and refined tin imports increased by 96.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse inventory decreased, while LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.25%, and the import loss of futures decreased by 23.75% [2]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.69%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 11.34% [2]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.03%, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 remained unchanged, 2605 - 2606 increased by 10, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 80 [2]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory and social inventory increased, while bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 10, 2605 - 2606 increased by 20, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 10 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased by 44.07%, and stainless steel net exports increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and cold - rolled social inventory increased slightly [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% and 0.98% respectively. The basis decreased by 1391.43% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 1860, 2605 - 2606 decreased by 380, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 380 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57% [7]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.28%, and the import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased by 286.2 [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of AL 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15, AL 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and AL 2606 - 2607 increased by 15 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.75%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.41%, and the spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 75 [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 12.24% [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.01%, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 316.57% [13]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 50, 2605 - 2606 increased by 40, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 20 [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, and imports decreased by 24.95% [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory, bonded area inventory, and SHFE inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.62%, and the import loss decreased by 80.83 [15]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 20, 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 5 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, and imports decreased by 81.26% [15]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.24%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.24% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis increased [16]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of the main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 30% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the export volume decreased by 27.44% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 4.90%, and social inventory increased by 1.27% [16]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 3.33% [17]. - **Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread**: The main contract increased by 0.39%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 242.86% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, and the export volume increased by 20.51% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.49%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.42% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is facing a complex situation with macro uncertainties and micro improvements. The price of copper is supported within the range of 88,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the strength of the US dollar have a significant impact on copper prices. Micro factors, including supply and demand dynamics and inventory changes, also play a role in price support. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: Volatility in INE, SHFE, COMEX, and LME has rebounded. LME copper price volatility is around 15%, and SHFE copper volatility is about 23%. [9] - **Term Spread**: The B - structure of SHFE copper has narrowed, and the LME copper spot discount has also narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has expanded. [11][13] - **Position**: Positions in INE, SHFE, and LME copper have decreased. SHFE copper positions decreased by 40,000 to 534,000 hands. [14] - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short positions of LME commercial enterprises have decreased. The net long positions of CFTC non - commercial have also decreased. [19] - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot discount has expanded, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has increased. The US copper premium remains at 7.5 cents/pound, Rotterdam copper premium at 190 dollars/ton, and Southeast Asian copper premium at 95 dollars/ton. [23][26] - **Inventory**: Global total copper inventory has decreased, with an increase in LME inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory. COMEX inventory has increased and is at a historically high level. [27][30] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, and that of SHFE copper is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. [31] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees continued to be weak. The port inventory of copper concentrate increased, and smelting losses narrowed. [34][37] - **Recycled Copper**: Recycled copper imports decreased year - on - year, while domestic production increased significantly. The scrap - to - refined copper price difference rebounded but was still below the break - even point, and import profitability narrowed. [38][43] - **Blister Copper**: Blister copper imports decreased month - on - month, and processing fees rebounded. [47] - **Refined Copper**: Domestic refined copper production increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and the profitability of copper spot imports narrowed. [50] 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: In February, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded marginally in the week of March 26. [54] - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have declined. Brass plate and strip processing fees have increased, and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees have remained stable at a low level. [56][60] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased marginally. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level. [61] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a high level compared to the same period in history, the finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. [64] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption has weakened marginally, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual consumption of copper in China is good, but both actual and apparent consumption have decreased year - on - year. Power grid investment growth has slowed down. [67] - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In February, domestic air - conditioner production was 12.898 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.16%. Domestic new - energy vehicle production was 694,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 21.85%. [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may show a fluctuating downward trend. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper this week is 92,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, which will support the copper price [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined to the lowest level in history, and the processing fee of blister copper has continued to decline. The supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Chile's National Copper Corporation produced 1.33 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the expected output in 2026 is 1.33 - 1.36 million tons. Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,000 tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 14.0%, and the output guidance for 2026 is 760,000 - 820,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: The copper price has rebounded in a fluctuating manner, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has weakened, the trading volume has declined but still remains at a relatively high level, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has increased in a fluctuating manner. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased again [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 52,000 tons to 359,000 tons, the LME inventory has increased by 18,000 tons to 360,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 535,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has decreased by 15,000 tons. In the spot market, on Friday, the spot price of copper in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 70.9 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased. From January to February, China's refined copper imports were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4% [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The copper price has rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen by 1.26% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.59% to 12,141 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times from February 13, 2026, to March 27, 2026, and the price differences between them [27]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price has rebounded, and the basis has weakened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 70.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased [30]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has reached a new low, reporting - 68.9 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [38]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has depreciated slightly, and the spot Shanghai - London ratio of copper has risen and then fallen [41]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit of copper has risen and then fallen [44]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 63,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared with the previous week. The decrease in the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange mainly comes from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang; the number of copper warrants has decreased by 37,039 to 237,076 tons. The LME inventory has increased, and the increase comes from warehouses in Asia, North America, and Europe; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased [47][50][53]. 4. Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected that the output in March will rebound significantly and be at a relatively high level in history. According to national statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual cumulative output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [58]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore imports were 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in January and February were 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The imports of anode copper in January and February were 65,000 tons and 57,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and 3.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The imports of refined copper in January and February were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% and 33.3% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 43.8% and 55.0% respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. The exports of refined copper in January and February were 93,000 tons and 78,000 tons respectively. The imports of recycled copper in January and February were 232,000 tons and 168,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% and a decrease of 13.1% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 400,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [61][64][67][73][76]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, the consumption is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [80]. - **PMI**: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiation in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies is also differentiated, with the prosperity of Japan, the Eurozone, and India improving, and that of the United States and the United Kingdom weakening [83]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: Among the copper downstream industries, the cumulative output from January to February 2026 increased year - on - year in cold storage, power generation equipment, refrigerators, color TVs, and air conditioners, while it decreased in automobiles, AC motors, and washing machines [86]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to February 2026, the domestic real estate data was weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and completion and new construction showing relatively weak performance. The National Real Estate Climate Index declined in December 2025 [89]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March but be lower than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with the operating situation significantly better than that of the same period last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises continued to increase, significantly higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased and remained at a relatively low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased [92][96][99][102][105][108]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, reporting 796 yuan/ton on Friday [113]. 6. Capital Side - **Shanghai Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 79,960 to 1,068,508 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2604 contract is 163,454 lots (bilateral) [118]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of March 24, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio has declined to 15.5%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds has declined (as of March 20) [121].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed lower but ended the day with gains. The shortage of copper ore resources due to tight overseas resources and shipping difficulties caused by war supports copper prices. The substitution of recycled copper has declined. The production of electrolytic copper increased in March. The demand in the copper product sector has started to pick up during the peak season, but the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate due to news - related stimuli [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, ending the day with gains. In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. The mainstream refined - scrap copper price difference has decreased. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. The copper product sector's demand has started to pick up during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. The copper cable industry's开工 rate in February was 55.81%, a 14.29 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 9.06 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The new energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year. The inventory decreased by 5.15% compared to last week. The market is expected to fluctuate due to news - related stimuli [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, ending the day with gains. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was 105 yuan/ton. On March 26, 2026, the LME official price was $12,189/ton, and the spot premium was - $81/ton [4]. 3. Supply - side - As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $69.22/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 237,100 tons, a decrease of 9,365 tons from the previous period. As of March 23, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 74,400 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 589,700 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has reached a new low, increasing the expectation of a tight ore supply. Overseas geopolitical situations affect economic growth expectations, putting downward pressure on copper prices. Smelters maintain a high production level. As copper prices decline, the upstream's willingness to hold back goods and raise prices increases, and the willingness to release scattered orders decreases. On the demand side, downstream copper product processing plants increase their operations of replenishing stocks at low prices, and the trading in the spot market has improved. In terms of inventory, stimulated by the traditional consumption peak season and the decline in copper prices, consumption demand has improved, and the inflection point of copper social inventory has emerged, showing an obvious reduction. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and warming consumption, with industrial inventory being reduced. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.24, a month - on - month increase of 0.04, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 94,030 yuan/ton, up 1,930 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,985 dollars/ton, down 182 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 198,395 lots, down 6,018 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 50,450 lots, up 12,567 lots. The LME copper inventory is 347,475 tons, up 5,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 411,121 tons, down 22,337 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 45,475 tons, down 200 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 262,710 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 587,468 short tons, down 1,236 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 93,965 yuan/ton, up 1,145 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 93,950 yuan/ton, up 830 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 53.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 65 yuan/ton, down 785 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 85.26 dollars/ton, up 9.51 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, down 31.28 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 84,250 yuan/metal ton, up 850 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 84,950 yuan/metal ton, up 850 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the South is 1,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; in the North, it is 1,400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The production of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 61,590 yuan/ton, down 2,400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,800 yuan/ton, down 2,250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.211 billion yuan, down 731.76 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.48%, up 1.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 34.62%, up 0.45%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 26.01%, up 0.0127; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, up 0.04 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. US President Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the outline of an agreement, suspending attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. However, Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. - Chinese President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area in Hebei and emphasized its function as a concentrated承载地 for relocating non - capital functions from Beijing. - The director of the Ministry of Commerce's Security and Control Bureau and the deputy director - general of the European Commission's Trade Directorate - General held the second meeting of the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism. - The director of the National Data Bureau said it would promote the power - computing synergy project, ensuring that the proportion of green power used in new computing power facilities in key nodes reaches over 80%. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a 17% year - on - year increase. In the first quarter, it plans to complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a 35% year - on - year increase. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran. Netanyahu said he had a call with Trump, and Trump thought there was an opportunity to achieve all war goals through an agreement. Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack Iran and Lebanon. - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rates. Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates while still leaving room for rate cuts this year. Milan said if there are second - round inflation effects and wage increases, rate hikes may be needed, but currently, it is not necessary. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance creates a false sense of certainty [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - As oil prices fall, the market's pricing of Fed rate hikes may gradually correct. Given the high US debt, rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy on dips for hedging, with a hedging volume of about one month [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,510 yuan/ton and closed at 92,100 yuan/ton, down 2.79% from the previous trading day. The night - session contract opened at 95,010 yuan/ton and closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2.98% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 opened lower, fluctuated between 92,600 - 93,100 yuan/ton, and closed at 92,620 yuan/ton. The monthly spread fluctuated, and the import profit was between 240 - 320 yuan/ton. The sales and purchase sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper declined. The social inventory decreased by 41,600 tons [2]. Important Information Summary - **US - Iran Relations**: US President Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and reached a preliminary agreement to suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. However, Iran denied having talks with the US [3]. - **Fed's Stance**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk, not ruling out rate hikes, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, rate cuts may occur later this year [3]. Mining, Smelting, Import, and Consumption - **Mining**: Power Metal Resources invested $1 million in Next Minerals, getting a 2.6% stake. Swift Mining Services also invested, and together they got 7.9% of the shares. The funds will be used for the Comahue project [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In February 2026, China's scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, down 27.72% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year [4]. - **Consumption**: The terminal demand shows "not - weak in peak season but increasing wait - and - see sentiment". The copper cable enterprise's operating rate is 70.52%, up 3.93 percentage points. The enameled wire industry is strong, with the operating rate at 88.93%, up 3.8 percentage points [4]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons. On March 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 467,700 tons, down 55,400 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: The premium and discount of SMM 1 copper, premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper, Yangshan premium, and LME (0 - 3) are provided for different time points [27]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, as well as SHFE warehouse receipts and LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratios are presented for different time points [28]. - **Arbitrage**: Ratios such as CU06 - CU04, CU05 - CU04, CU05/AL05, CU05/ZN05, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio are given for different time points [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, and the overall inventory is high. With the Middle - East conflict, high - oil prices, a rebounding US dollar, and a significant reduction in the Fed's expected interest rate cuts this year, the copper price may continue to adjust this week. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering as the copper price falls. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [88000, 98000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: Although high - oil prices create macro - pressure on non - ferrous metals, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, giving strong support to overseas prices. Domestic demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and terminal support is gradually strengthening. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [22500, 24500] [4]. - **Alumina**: There is still pressure on alumina supply and demand, but the Middle - East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have some impact on market expectations. Attention should be paid to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2800, 3250] [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 13 - 20, 2026, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Color Market dropped from 100630 yuan/ton to 95950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4680 yuan/ton; the average price of aluminum dropped from 25100 yuan/ton to 24030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1070 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price index rose from 2698 yuan/ton to 2752 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME copper total inventory increased by 30525 tons to 342350 tons; the LME aluminum total inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons; the AO warehouse receipt of alumina increased by 25143 tons to 399103 tons [8]. - **Weekly News**: LME updated a series of lending rules, which will take effect on March 17, 2026; Peru's proposal to shorten the mining concession period may affect investment; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of raw materials in the GCC region; EU's carbon tariff on imported aluminum has led to a sharp drop in January's import volume [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: In January - February 2026, the domestic economy started well, with strong import and export performance and a significant rebound in investment growth. However, the real estate market continued to adjust, and consumption rebounded but remained at a low level. The first - quarter economic "good start" is expected, but the overall situation is "strong supply and weak demand" [12]. - **Overseas Market**: On March 19, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. After the meeting, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year significantly cooled, with the expected number of cuts dropping from 1.02 to 0.59 times [19]. - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: There will be adjustments to domestic refined oil prices on March 23; important economic data such as the euro - zone's March manufacturing PMI and China's January - February industrial enterprise profits will be released this week [20]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures [27]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of copper inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, COMEX, and Shanghai bonded areas [33]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 13 - 19, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a month - on - month increase of 8.6 percentage points. It is expected to further increase to 83.76% this week. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the copper price decline, with their operating rates steadily rising [35]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: The report shows the historical trends of 6063 aluminum rod inventory and electrolytic aluminum spot inventory [38]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of alumina futures, options, aluminum futures, and options [41]. - **Overseas Market**: The report shows the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%. Different sub - industries showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates rising and some remaining stable [46]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 19, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 25000 yuan/ton. The price is expected to maintain a weak and narrow - range shock in the short term [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials [51]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 19, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, and the operating capacity was 89 million tons, with an operating rate of 75.11%. The supply decreased slightly, while the demand increased slightly [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of March 20, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2819.19 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 75.4 yuan/ton [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation remains tense, with the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to some oil and gas facilities, leading to rising energy prices. This has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, cooled the global economic recovery expectation, and pressured the non - ferrous metals sector [8][89][193]. - The Fed's hawkish stance in March has significantly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation and increased the interest - rate hike expectation, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and further pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector [8][89][193]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Copper prices are expected to decline due to the tense Middle - East situation; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely or oscillate [8][89][193]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The prices of most non - ferrous metals have shown different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of industrial silicon is 2.05%, and the weekly decrease is 2.54%; the daily decrease of LME copper is 3.09%, and the weekly decrease is 7.07% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: The tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance are negative for copper prices [8]. - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore is decreasing, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing, indicating a tight supply situation [8]. - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has slightly increased, while the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased [8]. - **Demand End**: The sharp decline in copper prices has increased the downstream's willingness to purchase, and the operating rates of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises have increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The global visible copper inventory has decreased from a high level [8]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bearish on copper prices, as the tense Middle - East situation may lead to a decline in copper prices, and there is still a risk of further decline if the conflict persists [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to the Middle - East situation, Fed policy, and copper inventory [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The tense Middle - East situation and the cooling of the global central banks' interest - rate cut expectation are negative for zinc prices [89]. - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, while the import processing fee continues to decline. The shipping cost of zinc concentrate has increased, and the increase in processing fees may be limited [89]. - **Smelting End**: The zinc ingot supply in March shows a recovery trend, and the smelting profit has been repaired. However, the overseas smelting cost is under pressure due to the increase in natural gas prices [89]. - **Demand End**: The downstream galvanizing operation is okay, but some enterprises face problems such as inventory backlog and difficult payment collection. The peak - season performance of terminal demand is not obvious [89]. - **Inventory**: After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the replenishment demand has been released, and the social inventory has decreased [89]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Geopolitical factors are the key to zinc prices, and short - term volatility may remain high. It is recommended that investors hedge risks [89]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to LME zinc inventory and the Middle - East situation [89]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: The tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance are negative for nickel and stainless - steel prices [193]. - **Raw Material End**: Although the RKAB quota for nickel ore in Indonesia has been approved, production accidents and bad weather have affected the supply. The nickel ore premium remains high, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing [193]. - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel in March is expected to increase, but the production of some nickel plants in Indonesia has been suspended. The supply of MHP raw materials is a concern due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [193]. - **Demand End**: The price of stainless steel fluctuates weakly, and the spot trading is stable. The steel mill's production plan in March has increased, but the downstream demand release is limited. There is still a rush - to - export demand for precursors in the new - energy field [193]. - **Inventory**: The global nickel inventory remains at a high level [193]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the RKAB approval and policy changes in Indonesia and macro - economic sentiment. In the long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [193]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and wait for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the nickel - related policies of resource - producing countries and global macro - economic disturbances [193].