锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月25日 Z0021810 冠帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#娱 | 293500 | 291300 | 2200 | 0.76% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 600 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 294000 | 291800 | 2200 | 0.75% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 95.67 | 95.00 | 0.67 | 0.71% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 讲口密亏 | -15805.26 | -16328.60 | 523.34 | 3.21% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.92 | 7.91 | | | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 现 ...

| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

铜周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘层面对市场情绪有所压制 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费下滑，粗铜加工费持平，冷料供应边际偏宽松。消息面，智利国家铜业（Codelco）对2026年CIF韩国电解铜长单报 价在330美元/吨，较2025年85美元/吨上涨245美元/吨。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加3.8万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.1至11.1万吨，LME库存增加1.9至15.5万吨，COMEX库存增加1.7至36.2万吨 上海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货90元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M升水1.1美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价反弹。海关总署数据显示，2025年10月我国精炼铜进口量32.3万吨，净进口量为25.7万 吨，环比减少9.0万吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 19 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 铜 | 专题报告 2025 年专题报告 铜 专业研究·创造价值 应对矿端收缩与冶炼困局——再生铜 摘 要 | 1 再生铜的重要性 3 | | --- | | 2 全球再生铜情况 4 | | 3 国内再生铜情况 5 | | 4 总结 8 | | 图 1 21 世纪全球铜矿产量 3 | | --- | | 图 2 全球再生铜产量占比 4 | | 图 3 全球原生铜和再生铜产量 4 | | 图 4 美国废铜和精铜情况 5 | | 图 5 国内原生铜和再生铜产量 5 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储降息预期降温，有色板块冲高回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月16日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：现实驱动不强，但长期价格上涨逻辑依然明显 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：85000-89000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 美元/吨 COMEX铜 ...

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global copper consumption showed a mild year-on-year increase of 1% in September, with a 2% increase in consumption outside of China compared to the same period last year [1] - Citigroup forecasts that the year-on-year growth in copper consumption will remain weak in the fourth quarter of this year due to a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity, which are limiting factors for cyclical copper demand for the remainder of the year [1] - Despite the current weak spot market indicators, Citigroup expects copper prices to continue to outperform recent fundamentals, anticipating favorable factors in 2026, including increased consumption, mining supply constraints, and expected market supply shortages [1] Group 2 - The company highlights three major challenges facing China's copper industry chain: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [1]

Group 1 - Citi predicts copper prices will rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, with an optimistic scenario reaching $14,000 per ton [1] - For the remainder of this year, copper prices are expected to trade around $11,000 per ton, reflecting a positive outlook for 2026 despite recent weak physical demand [1] - The mixed global manufacturing sentiment indicates limited growth potential for cyclical copper demand for the rest of the year [1] Group 2 - Due to a strong base in 2024, year-on-year consumption growth is expected to remain weak in Q4 2025, alongside sluggish manufacturing activity [1] - However, a recovery in demand is anticipated in 2026, supported by loose fiscal policies in the U.S. and global monetary policies [1] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1]

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]