| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月26日 星期二 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79395 | 78830 | +565.00 | 0.72% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 140 | 150 | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79255 | 78735 | +520.00 | 0.66% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79285 | 78710 | +575.00 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 30 | 30 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | JEET | 1084 | +467.24 | 43. ...

冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 时间：2025年8月25日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上周沪铜整体弱势，本周一拉涨。宏观方面，周五，杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔表态 "鸽化"，市场开启交易9月降息逻辑，美元指数大幅下 | | | | | 调，支撑以美元定价的有色金属的价格，铜价反弹。国内宏观经济稳中向好，国务院第九次全体会议强调稳预期，提出巩固房地产市场止 | | | | | 跌回稳措施，提振市场情绪。整体来说，铜市场依然在博弈美联储降息预期，若降息超预期，铜价将大幅波动。供给方面，本周国内整体 | | | | | 铜矿进口及港口库存均环比回升，短期国内原料端货源充足，但国际方面受铜矿端干扰的影响，整体偏紧预期尚未改变，中端冶炼厂TC/RC | | | | | 费用回稳几周后，本周继续下调，但目前精铜产量暂时没有减少，8月仅1家冶炼厂有检修计划，7月精铜产量依然环比增加，进口铜数量及 ...

有色金属基础周报 主要品种观点综述 美联储降息预期增强 有色金属整体震荡偏强 2025-08-25 | | | 本周铜价维持横盘状态，价格波动进一步收敛。周末在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上鲍威尔放鸽，认为风险平衡转变，可能需要调整政策，强调就 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 业风险，为降息敞开大门，消息对铜价将有所提振；国内反内卷政策延续深化，相关品种继续得到支撑，给市场带来情绪化影响。基本面上，本 | | | | | 周国内铜库存小增但整体维持低位水平，LME铜库存累库，沪伦比止跌回稳，铜进口利润转正，进口陆续到货，叠加国产货源有所补充，市场流 | | | | 高位震荡偏强 | 动性得以增加。下游消费未见拐点，现货升水有所下滑，但铜价走跌推动下游企业入市逢低补库需求回升，部分市场到货量亦再度减少，社会库 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 78500-79500 | 存重新下降。铜市场月底下游消费提升空间有限，同时进口铜到货仍有增量，供需市场矛盾点并不突出，现货升水回升仍面临压力。铜价仍偏于 | 或观望 | | | | 震荡。但从表观消费量来看绝对需求量并不低，体现出目前消费的 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪铜市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 供需稳定预期向好，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡运行，周线涨跌幅为-0.47%，振幅1.02%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价78960元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储大部分官员依旧对降息保持谨慎姿态。美国8月标普全球综合PMI初值录得55.4，创8个月新 高，交易员减少对美联储今年两次降息的押注。国内方面，5000亿"准财政"工具将出炉！从地方透露信息来看，新型政 策性金融工具的资金规模为5000亿元，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域。基本面矿端，由于铜矿区供给的释放，铜精 矿TC现货指数有所回升，但亦处负值区间运行，铜矿坚挺对铜价支撑仍在。供给方面，铜精矿港口持续回落，国内冶炼厂 需求有所提升，预计国内精铜供给量或有小幅增长。需求方面，由于淡季影响的持续，下游消费表现仍较为平淡，但随着 旺季节点的临近，下游或有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The processing fee has rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance, but with relatively stable power grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. So, the overall price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The future development of the Putin-Biden meeting needs attention. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put pressure on the LME copper price. Also, the relatively strong performance of the domestic equity market may siphon off commodity funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, a -0.13% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The night session opened at 78,580 yuan/ton and closed at 78,710 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase from the afternoon closing [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 100 - 220 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average of 160 yuan/ton, a 30 yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,710 - 78,890 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered. Due to the concentrated arrival of imported and domestic copper sources, holders actively sold, leading to a general decline in premiums. It is expected that domestic copper will continue to arrive at the warehouse, and low - priced imported sources will suppress premiums, but downstream procurement may provide support near the weekend, so the downward space for spot premiums is limited [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5; the Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant increase in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3]. - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000; the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3]. - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Harmaque said she would not support a rate cut at the September meeting if Fed officials were to make a policy decision tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25BP rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping it unchanged [3]. Mine End - Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing to support the early construction of its Nussir copper project in Norway. The project is expected to cost $330 million to build, with a mine life of 25 years, an average annual output of 25,000 tons of copper concentrate, and associated silver and gold. The cash cost is only $1.38 per pound of copper, ranking in the low - cost quartile of the industry, and it aims to start production in September 2027 [4]. - Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship mine El Teniente reduced production by 33,000 tons. The expected output of El Teniente this year is 316,000 tons, and the production decline will cause a loss of $340 million [4]. Smelting and Import - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated on the 19th. Hong Kong's participation in the LME's delivery network is an important step in building a commodity trading ecosystem. China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to copper concentrate and cold material supply shortages increased compared to July [5]. Consumption - In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range; the leading index was 79.7, up 0.1 points from June; the coincident index was 73.8, down 0.9 points from June. In July 2025, China's copper foil export volume was 4,483.51 tons, a 13.32% year - on - year increase and a 3.23% month - on - month increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,200.00 tons to 156,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 66 tons to 25,157 tons. On August 18, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 131,700 tons, a - 2,000 - ton change from the previous week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The fundamentals of the mining end show an increase in overseas mine supply, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. On the supply side, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively firm operation of the spot, smelters are more enthusiastic about production, and domestic supply has increased. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened, and there is a slight improvement in consumption during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Downstream inquiries have become more active, with some advance stocking demand emerging, and demand expectations are warming. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventories remaining at a medium - low level, and industry expectations are improving. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,692.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 506 lots, a decrease of 5,699 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,157 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 78,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 90.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,080 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,780 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons. The cumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative value of completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 6.89%, a decrease of 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.52%, with no change. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 9.2%, an increase of 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that many participants believed that the current interest rate was not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged. China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The Fed's July meeting minutes also showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining political stability, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony in Tibet and promoting major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Macroscopically, the "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the space for interest - rate cuts, suppressing the upside potential of copper prices. The short - term focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will influence the Fed's decision in September. - Fundamentally, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. With "tight mine supply + resilient demand," there is support for prices. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price is expected to range between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions such as the crackdown on bauxite theft in Shanxi and the demonstration in Guinea have raised concerns, but mid - term production capacity is expected to increase, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. - For electrolytic aluminum, although there is some support from domestic consumption - stimulating policies and expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand is still in the off - season. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on the 21,000 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, as it enters the transition period from the off - season to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import price ratio remains the same, the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap will be limited. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate in May globally and in July domestically fell short of expectations. The smelter's production enthusiasm is high, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to range between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - Supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling opportunities may arise; otherwise, the price will remain high and volatile [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the US inflation pressure has eased, and the market expects more aggressive easing policies. Industrially, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of ferronickel is rising, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the downstream of the new energy sector has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. Although the export pressure has been alleviated, the terminal demand is still weak. The price of ferronickel is rising, and the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in August. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, while demand is entering the peak season and is showing a positive trend. Although the actual demand has not significantly increased due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the overall market atmosphere is strong. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of copper decreased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.59% to 1,020 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventories decreased by 10.01% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import loss decreased by 113.2 yuan/ton to 1,289 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31%. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The import loss decreased by 62.92 yuan/ton to 1,728 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 13.59% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price was 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 41.27% to 89.00 dollars/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 to - 230. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 6.82% to 2,350 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: In July, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%, and demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].