Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | A | 1 | P | R | T | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

多空因素交织 一方面，铜价金融属性预计增强，宏观面干扰因素增多难对铜价形成实质性利好；另一方面，线缆产业链整体库存偏高，消费端预计以平稳回升为主。 9月以来，铜价整体表现偏强，价格中枢有所上移。一方面，市场对美联储年内降息的预期增强；另一方面，海外铜矿运营出现扰动，共同对铜价形成支 撑。国内长假期间，美国政府"停摆"推升了市场避险情绪，黄金价格持续上涨也对铜价有所带动。 消费端平稳回升 前期国内线缆企业整体表现清淡，行业开工率维持在70%左右，库存有所累积，淡季特征明显。"十四五"期间，国家电网配电网建设投资超过1.2万亿元，占 电网总投资的60%以上；南方电网也规划配电网投资约3200亿元，占比达48%。叠加分布式光伏与用户侧储能的快速发展，配网建设持续推进。今年作 为"十四五"收官之年，四季度线缆行业产销有望加速。不过，当前线缆产业链整体库存偏高，消费拉动作用预计以平稳回升为主。 按照正常季节性规律，空调行业生产近期将逐步启动，铜管行业有望自10月起产销回暖。由于今年铜管企业采销策略普遍谨慎，库存压力不大，空调产业链 对铜消费的拉动将逐步显现。此外，当前正值汽车产销旺季，在新能源汽车的持续带动下，汽车行业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].

10月9日，A股市场放量走强，三大指数全线上涨。黄金、稀土、核聚变、铜产业、存储芯片等板块表 现亮眼，整个市场超3100只股票上涨。机构认为，在多种因素综合影响下，A股有望延续震荡上行态 势。 "国家支持和鼓励正常的市场竞争，对价格无序竞争的经营者，公告提出三方面监管措施。"上述负责人 表示，一是提醒告诫。对涉嫌价格无序竞争的经营者进行提醒告诫，要求其自觉规范价格行为，严守价 格竞争底线。二是监管执法。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）对提醒告诫后仍未规范价格行为的经营者予以重点关注，必要时开展成本调查、价格监 督检查，发现价格违法违规问题的，依法予以查处。三是失信惩戒。充分发挥信用监管作用，依法依规 实施失信惩戒。 依法依规治理企业无序竞争 在规范招标投标行为方面，公告明确，经营者应当严格遵守《中华人民共和国招标投标法》《中华人民 共和国招标投标法实施条例》规定，自觉规范招标投标行为，不得以低于成本的报价竞标，保障产品和 服务质量。 ● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 国家发展改革委10月9日消息，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局近日印发《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护 良好市场价格秩序的公告》。公告根据现行法律法规，按照事前 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,750.00 | +3640.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,864.00 | +195.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -70.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 221,715.00 | +7856.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -6,648.00 | +1387.00↑ LME铜 ...

"等了好几天终于能交易了，开门红了！"10月9日，一名老股民激动地表示。 10月9日，A股节后的首个交易日，三大指数集体高开高走，截至收盘，上证指数上涨1.32%，收于3933.97点，创下2015年8月以来近十年的高点。 同日，深证成指涨1.47%，收于13725.56点，创业板指涨0.73%，收于3261.82点。深证成指、创业板指也创下2022年2月以来的新高点。全市场3115只股上 涨。 有投资者直呼坚定不移地等待下一个新高点的到来；也有投资者感叹，自己的股票还在"未盈利"状态。 2025年至今，有色金属成了A股"最靓的仔"，板块涨幅为77.56%，领先于硬件设备（涨幅59.07%）、半导体（涨幅58.74%）板块。10月9日，有色金属、 硬件设备和半导体的部分热门股票再度拉升。 有色金属概念"沸腾" 其中，发电设备板块，融发核电（002366.SZ）、东方电气（600835.SH）等涨停。科技股亦走强，电脑硬件概念涨幅为2.66%；半导体概念涨幅为 2.58%，其中，灿芯股份（688691.SH）涨停，芯原股份（688521.SH）等集体涨超10%。 有色金属板块集体爆发则更吸睛。10月9日，黄金、 ...

产业宏观利好铜价，关注国内政策 10月铜月报 2025-10-9 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 9月铜价偏强运行，月涨幅4.96%，截至9月30日沪铜收盘价为83350元/吨。月初国内宏观环境偏暖，美国就业市场降温且8月CPI符合市场预期下，美 联储降息预期大幅升温，铜价偏强震荡。随后美联储降息25基点如期落地，铜价小幅回调。自由港印尼矿区因为泥石流事故停产，铜矿供应再受扰动， Grasberg矿区2025年四季度铜产销量预计大幅下降推升铜价。铜精矿现货粗炼费TC仍处于-40美元/吨左右历史低位，铜精矿紧缺加剧。9月冶炼厂关停检 修高峰期，叠加阳极铜受税收政策影响供给不足，9月精铜产量环比走低。传统消费旺季成色不足，国庆假期前下游备库需求增加社库去化，库存仍处历史 低位为铜价提供支撑。10月国内政策或陆续出台托底经济，当前矿端扰动叠加宏观利好，预计铜价继续维持偏强运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 25-10-09 25-09-25 25-09-19 25-09 ...

国庆节前，铜价因大幅上涨"火出圈"。节后，铜价又将如何演绎？ 供应紧张助推铜价大涨 9月份，铜价呈现先窄幅震荡、后大幅拉升的走势。 根据长江有色金属网信息，9月份，长江现货1#铜月均价报80775元/吨，日均上涨167.73元/吨，环比8月 均价上涨2.11%；同比2024年9月均价上涨7.99%。其中，9月30日，国内现货铜价大涨，长江现货1#铜 价报83140元/吨，涨760元。 期货市场也存在类似情况，沪铜期货主力合约自9月25日开始大幅拉升3.4% ，在26日和29日小幅回调之 后，30日再度大幅上涨，盘中创出自去年5月31日以来阶段性新高83820元/吨，收盘报83110.00元/吨， 上涨1040元，涨幅为1.27%。 外盘，LME铜价在国内"十一"假期也涨势不俗，10月1日～3日连续上涨后，于10月6日创出去年5月23日 以来新高10800美元/吨，达到逾16个月新高，接近前期高点11104.5美元/吨。之后维持在10700美元上下 窄幅波动。截至10月8日上午10点30分，国庆节期间LME铜价涨幅超过3%。COMEX铜也走出一波上涨 行情。 全球铜矿供应干扰频繁是市场焦点。南华期货分析称，早前 ...

节前最后一个交易日（9月30日），铜现货和期货价格大涨，其中沪铜期货主力合约创出自去年5月31日 以来的阶段新高，达到83820元/吨，A股相关股票也大幅上涨。国庆节期间，伦敦金属交易所（LME） 铜价也涨势不俗，创出逾16个月新高，累计涨幅超过3%。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达对第一财经称，近期铜价快速上行并创出多月新高，是宏观政策、供需基本 面与市场情绪多重利好共振的结果。 铜矿供应紧张是市场关注的一大焦点。华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇称，供应紧张已经在矿 产得到体现，尽管部分铜矿受高价格提振而扩产，但干扰因素导致很难实际达产。尤其是全球巨头 Freeport-McMoRan位于印尼的Grasberg铜矿已宣布不可抗力，进一步加剧供应紧张。同时，供应偏紧可 能正向精炼铜传导。 关于铜价后续行情，多位业内人士认为，受外盘铜价上涨影响，节后开盘首日沪期铜上涨概率大，但也 要警惕节后高位回调的风险，四季度铜价有望延续偏强震荡格局，企业可通过套期保值对冲相关风险。 供应紧张助推铜价大涨 9月份，铜价呈现先窄幅震荡、后大幅拉升的走势。 根据长江有色金属网信息，9月份，长江现货1#铜月均价报80775元/吨，日 ...