作为金融工具，因"零票息"特性，金价与实际利率呈负相关，实际利率走高时，资金倾向流向美债等生息资 产；同时与通胀水平呈正相关，通胀上行时，抗通胀功能凸显。 作为商品，供需构成基础支撑，但供给端受矿产金开发周期长、再生金多为金价波动结果的影响呈刚性，需求 端以珠宝消费、工业应用为主且波动平缓，对长期趋势影响有限。 2025年，黄金迎来历史性的强劲走势。伦敦金现价格于10月突破4300美元/盎司，创下纪录新高， 并在随后维持高位整固；全年以十年未见的陡峭升势，刷新历史高点逾50次，大涨约60%，表现显 著超越其他主要资产类别。这一连串震撼数字，不仅重新刻画了黄金的价值刻度，更深刻折射出全 球资本对货币信用体系重构的深层预期。 在人类漫长的经济史中，黄金始终是"恒定价值"的终极象征。它不像纸币需要信用的"担保函"，也不像股票绑 定企业的"沉浮录"，而是以恒星爆炸时锻造的原子密码，在时空长廊中守护着价值的永恒契约。当主权货币的 购买力像潮汐般涨落不定，这种源于星辰爆发时一场绚烂的宇宙馈赠，历经亿万年地质淬炼，最终凝结为地壳 中的价值瑰宝，便以其物理层面的稀缺性，守护着跨越文明与时代的价格共识。 时光流转，货币形态更迭 ...

消息面上，上周五美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞特表态边际转鹰派，他虽然预期美联储FOMC将会在 本周议息会议钟进行25个基点的降息操作，但他却表示"现在是美联储在此谨慎降息的好时机"，其措辞 发言与前期激进的推动降息相比有所转谨慎。哈塞特进行表态后，金银价格冲高回落。 五矿期货分析指出，面对就业数据的利多因素金银价格未延续突破历史新高强势表现，哈塞特的"任命 暗示"也令短期宽货币的驱动因素出尽，当前金银策略上建议逐步了结在手多单，转入观望状态。 12月8日，受美联储降息预期支撑与阻力位双重博弈影响，金价盘初震荡调整，午后反弹走强，重回 4240美元关口。截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4245美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏（518850） 跌幅收窄至0.27%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌0.96%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨0.85%。 每日经济新闻 ...

12月5日，国际金价盘中震荡走低，黄金有色相关ETF产品涨幅小幅收窄。截至发稿，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）涨0.33%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨0.75%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨0.87%。 值得注意的是，资金近日持续布局相关ETF。Wind数据显示，黄金ETF华夏（518850）近20个交易日有 17个交易日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"超13.63亿元；截至12月4日，该ETF最新份额达11.03亿份，最新 规模100.79亿元，规模再创新高。 恒泰期货进一步指出，从长期交易策略来看，伴随着美元信用体系受损、全球货币体系重构以及全球资 产重估，非美资产相对占优，黄金仍将是长期的资产配置品种。 消息面上，据媒体消息，截至2025年12月4日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1050.58 吨，较前一个交易日增加4.00吨；全球最大的白银ETF iShares Silver Trust持仓量为16094.45吨，较前一 个交易日增加95.90吨。 中金公司最新研报认为，展望2026年，周期性需求与结构性趋势有望继续共振，金银价格或仍处于上行 通道。 ...

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surged on November 28, reaching a high of $4,200 per ounce, marking a two-week peak, with current prices at $4,198.020 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also showed significant increases on the same day [1] Group 1: Market Trends - COMEX gold futures rose to $4,222.8 per ounce, indicating a synchronized upward movement in gold prices [1] - The domestic gold ETF, Huaxia (518850), increased by 0.65%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 1.06%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) gained 1.39% [2] Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent dovish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggest a continued possibility of interest rate cuts in December, which is expected to weaken the dollar's medium-term strength [3] - Market predictions indicate a moderate upward trend for international gold prices, with expectations of a range between $4,200 and $4,500 per ounce by Q1 2026, averaging an increase of 8% to 12% [3] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are anticipated to dominate international gold price movements, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3]

消息面上，本周多位美联储官员释放鸽派言论，12月再次降息的可能性依然存在。根据预测平台数据， 鸽派候选人凯文.哈塞特已成为下一任美联储主席的热门人选，外界普遍预期他将落实特朗普大幅降息 的呼吁。 11月28日，受降息预期升温、地缘政治风险再现双重催化，金价强势突破4220美元关口。截至A股收 盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.65%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.06%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨 1.39%。 有市场分析指出，周五美国没有重要的经济数据公布，因此黄金将主要受美联储降息预期和整体风险情 绪的影响。而12月降息已成为市场主流预期，大幅削弱了美元的中期强势基础。与此同时，未来的政策 制定层面大概率继续支持低利率环境，这进一步强化了黄金的中期吸引力。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a peak of $4,152 before retreating, currently trading around $4,140, with related products showing narrowed gains [1] - Strong investment demand is supporting the gold market, testing resistance near $4,150 per ounce, preventing significant declines [1] - Although gold prices have decreased approximately 6% from last month's historical high of around $4,360 per ounce, the pullback is relatively mild and has not triggered panic selling [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors [2] - The firm anticipates further rate cuts in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% [2] - The baseline view is that the Federal Reserve will increasingly believe in the sustainability of the inflation slowdown trend, reducing the need for restrictive monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a rise in gold-related products, with significant inflows into the non-ferrous metal ETF fund and notable increases in individual stocks within the sector [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) increased by 1.61%, with Tianqi Lithium rising by 6.91% and other stocks like Ganfeng Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Huayou Cobalt also seeing gains [2] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) rose by 1.06%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.77% [2] - Over the past three days, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 234 million yuan, bringing its latest scale to 1.972 billion yuan as of November 18 [2] Group 2: Fund Performance Metrics - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund has experienced an 83.42% increase in net value over the past two years, ranking 42 out of 2406 index stock funds, placing it in the top 1.75% [2] - The fund's highest single-month return since inception was 27.00%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum cumulative increase of 69.57% [2] - The average monthly return during rising months is 9.63%, and the fund has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 6.20% over the past six months, ranking 1 out of 2 comparable funds [2] Group 3: Index Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund closely tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of October 31, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 53.58% of the index [3]

Core Insights - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, while gold prices continued to fluctuate, leading to declines in gold-related products [3] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a net inflow of funds for 12 consecutive days, totaling 595 million yuan [3] - As of November 14, the Huaxia Gold ETF reached a record high of 986 million shares since its inception [3] Performance Metrics - Over the past two years, the net value of the Huaxia Gold ETF has increased by 99.30% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 11.49%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum gain of 16.34% [3] - The ratio of up months to down months stands at 42 to 24, with an average return of 3.37% during up months and an annual profit percentage of 75.00% [3] - The probability of monthly profitability is 63.46%, and the historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period is 99.53% [3] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Huaxia Gold ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest fee structures available [3]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight pullback in afternoon trading, with copper prices strengthening during the session [1] - Citigroup's copper consumption tracking indicated a mild year-on-year growth of 1% in global copper consumption for September [1] - Citigroup forecasts a continued weak year-on-year growth in copper consumption for Q4 2023, citing a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity as limiting factors [1] Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) saw its gains narrow to 4.06%, while the gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.52%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.07% [1] - Long-term support for copper prices is attributed to increased market liquidity due to expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce more detailed measures to boost consumption and expand openness, indicating potential further stimulation of domestic copper consumption [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates a recovery in copper demand by 2026, supported by more accommodative fiscal policies in the U.S. and a globally looser monetary environment [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 1.4% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $4,155 before slightly retreating, closing around $4,135 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.40%, while the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) fell by 1.22%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.65% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate passed a funding and extension bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, which will end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - Following the end of the shutdown, the Federal Reserve officials have released dovish statements, increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 64.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 35.9% [1] Group 3 - Bloomberg analysis suggests that the end of the government shutdown will lead to the release of delayed economic data, which is expected to show a deteriorating economic outlook [1] - This anticipated economic decline may prompt the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy, which would benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1]