Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, A-shares saw the three major indices turn positive, while the non-ferrous metal sector continued to adjust [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 1.05%, with leading declines from stocks such as Shenghe Resources, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.69%, with a premium rate of 0.17%, and stocks like Mingpai Jewelry and Hengbang Shares also saw significant declines [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Trends - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) has recently experienced a net inflow of over 24 million yuan in the past five trading days [1] - The total scale of 53 gold-themed funds reached 246.9 billion yuan as of July 27, an increase of 12.85 billion yuan from the end of last year, marking a growth rate of 108.53% [2] - All 53 gold-themed funds have seen their net values rise this year, with 22 funds showing a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metal ETF tracks an index focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, with respective weights of 30.6% for copper and 16.2% for gold [1] - The gold stock ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 66.13% of the fund [2] - Analysts suggest that the current global trade and financial environment, characterized by "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," is favorable for gold's investment value and safe-haven appeal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations with the three major indices opening lower, while the CRO and optical module sectors are leading gains, and rural revitalization and feed concepts are declining [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:10 AM, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) fell by 0.72%, despite individual stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 3% [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund has seen a net subscription of 24.45 million in the past five trading days, indicating increased investor interest [1] Group 2: Cobalt Market Analysis - Cobalt prices have stopped declining and are rebounding, with inventory levels remaining high; however, market inquiries and transactions have improved compared to the previous week [1] - Some downstream companies are preemptively restocking due to bullish sentiment, especially with the Democratic Republic of Congo's ongoing export bans since February and their extension in June [1] - The upcoming peak season in September and October is expected to drive down existing inventory levels, and the Congolese government's firm pricing stance may lead to further delays in exports [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund tracks the CSI sub-index for the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on industrial metals (51.7%), minor metals and energy metals (26.8%), and precious metals (16.2%), which are likely to benefit from anti-involution policies [1]

在经济数据持续修复的背景下，A股这一轮新行情首先来自于政策面，包括"反内卷"、扩大内需、雅江 水电需求刺激等，尤其当前各行业正在积极落实"反内卷"政策，工信部表示钢铁、有色金属、石化、建 材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。 本次"反内卷"从上游到下游均有一定覆盖，对PPI和CPI均有一定程度的积极影响，除黑色、建材、有色 等传统行业外，光伏、汽车等新兴行业价格亦有望受益。短期内市场情绪显著改善并推动商品价格大幅 回升，带动相关行业指数显著修复，反映出市场对经济复苏的乐观预期和投资者信心的增强，不过后续 能否形成类似2015年的持续性上涨行情，还需重点关注需求端配套政策措施的落地情况以及企业基本面 盈利的改善效果，可长期关注系统性改革受益投资机会。 二、核心观点： （1）反内卷政策演进脉络 2024年7月30日，中共中央政治局会议首次提出要防止"内卷式"恶性竞争。 2024年12月经济工作会议中指出要综合整治"内卷式"竞争。 2025年3月份政府工作报告中在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设时再次强调综合整治"内卷式"竞争。 一、事件及点评： 7月23日，上证指数收于3582.3 ...