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睿郡资产薛大威:AI时代价值评估的底层逻辑不会改变
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 13:48
Core Insights - The Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting is a focal point for global investors, marking its 60th anniversary this year [1] - The arrival of the AI era is expected to enhance the ability of active managers to identify investment opportunities earlier and with a longer-term perspective [1][3] - Value investors are advised to dynamically balance defensive and offensive asset allocations based on rational return expectations and their own capability circles [1][4] Investment Strategies - The fundamental logic of value assessment remains unchanged, but market pricing efficiency has improved due to AI advancements [2][3] - Companies that can consistently pay dividends, repurchase shares, and maintain low debt levels while generating cash flow are less likely to fall into value traps [2] - The focus should be on whether equity asset returns can exceed risk-free rates, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][5] Risk Management - Ordinary investors are encouraged to establish a "anti-fragile" framework through diversification, controlling concentration, and using derivatives to mitigate risks [2][8] - The emphasis is on finding suitable risk-reward ratios within one's capability circle rather than diversifying for the sake of it [9] - The current market environment necessitates a rational expectation of returns, adjusting allocations between defensive and offensive assets as needed [4][10] Market Dynamics - The AH premium index serves as a measure of investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, with recent trends indicating a narrowing discount compared to A-shares [6][7] - Geopolitical risks have already been factored into pricing, with foreign capital showing a tendency to withdraw from Hong Kong and A-shares [7] - The potential for foreign capital to return to emerging markets remains uncertain, with domestic funds being more familiar with local opportunities [7][8]