在市场震荡上涨的过程中，百亿级私募积极谋攻。私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，股票私募仓位 指数连续两周上涨。其中，百亿级私募攻势明显，仓位指数超过82%，较8月8日涨超8个百分点，创下 年内单周最大加仓幅度。从加仓方向来看，科技、创新药、新消费等板块仍是布局重点，同时受益 于"反内卷"政策的化工、保险等行业获不少私募加码。在业内人士看来，市场正处于趋势性上行的上半 场，未来或将由流动性、基本面双重驱动，基本面向好且代表经济转型方向的企业值得关注。 ■私募新观察 看好资金面与基本面双重驱动 百亿级私募仓位重回八成以上 ◎记者 马嘉悦 百亿级私募仓位尽显攻势 近期，私募仓位愈发积极。 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，股票私募仓位指数为74.86%，较8月8日上涨0.64个百分点，连续 两周上涨。 其中，满仓（仓位超过八成）股票私募占比为54.8%，中等仓位（仓位在五成至八成区间）股票私募占 比为25.8%，仓位低于五成的私募占比不足20%。与8月8日相比，满仓股票私募占比小幅提升。 分规模来看，百亿级私募加仓动作明显。 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，百亿级私募仓位指数为82.29%，较8月8日上涨8 ...

2025 年 08 月 22 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 （1）科技成长+自主可控+军工：液冷、机器人、游戏、AI 应用、军工（导弹、 无人机、卫星、深海科技），此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技与券商板块。 （2）受益于"PPI 边际改善预期+部分低位补涨"的顺周期品种扩散：钢铁、化 工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。 （3）具备反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品， 光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备 中期潜力。 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告 《剖析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重 因素共同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情 与以往典型的"指数牛"存在相似特 ...

要问最近全球资本市场最具爆发力的AI应用公司是谁？答案毫无疑问是Palantir（PLTR）。 这家由硅谷传奇投资人彼得·蒂尔在2004年创立的科技巨头，从早期为美国中情局、国防部提供核心数据分 析服务的"神秘承包商"，到如今政企通吃的AI改造先锋，早已成为全球投资者眼中的"成长股标杆"。 格隆汇研究院作为全球科技趋势的精准预判者，早在2023年12月就锁定PLTR（当时股价仅17美元）。 我们的研究员团队通过对AI应用赛道的深度拆解，从技术壁垒、政企需求共振、现金流模型等多维度论证 其投资价值，并在会员专属内容中持续跟踪其业务突破——从政府订单扩容到商业客户暴增，从技术迭代 到业绩爆发，每一个关键节点都被精准捕捉。 直到2025年8月12日股价冲至190美元，回过头看来已经是10倍股，这波跨越两年的布局，再次印证了我 们"前瞻性眼光提前挖掘价值"的硬核研究实力。 过去几年，PLTR用股价书写了一部传奇： 作为AI应用领域当之无愧的大牛股，2024年以来股价疯涨10倍，2025年4月至今的反弹幅度更接近200%。 然而在近期，做空机构香橼突然发布报告，称PLTR估值虚高70%。 受此影响，市场恐慌情绪蔓延，P ...

Core Viewpoint - Palantir (PLTR) has transformed from a government contractor to a leading AI application company, becoming a benchmark for growth stocks globally [2][5]. Group 1: Company Transformation - Palantir has evolved from primarily serving government clients to becoming a comprehensive AI service provider, driven by its technological capabilities [5][6]. - The company was founded with the mission to "save the world with data," initially focusing on national security, which has provided a strong foundation for its commercial expansion [6]. Group 2: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, Palantir's government revenue reached $426 million, a 53% year-over-year increase, supported by a $10 billion contract with the U.S. Army [7]. - Commercial revenue surged to $306 million, a 93% increase year-over-year, with a total of 849 clients, reflecting a 43% growth in customer base [7][8]. - The company's core product, the AIP platform, has established a significant competitive advantage by efficiently converting fragmented data into actionable knowledge [8]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - Palantir's Q2 2025 revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time, marking a 48% year-over-year growth, with adjusted free cash flow increasing by 283% to $568 million [9]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.142-4.15 billion, indicating a 45% year-over-year growth [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Response - Citron Research's report claimed Palantir was overvalued by 70%, citing a high P/E ratio and questioning the sustainability of its commercial growth [11]. - In response, Palantir's strong fundamentals and growth metrics were highlighted, demonstrating that its revenue and cash flow growth could justify its valuation [12]. Group 5: Future Growth Potential - Palantir's management has projected a tenfold increase in U.S. business over the next five years, supported by strong demand for AI solutions in both government and commercial sectors [13][15]. - The company is well-positioned for global expansion, with a 68% win rate in government project bids in Europe, indicating significant future revenue potential [16].

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.21% at 25,122.9 points and a total turnover of 278.2 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.3% to 9,006.23 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.67% to 5,542.03 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - China Resources Beer saw a significant increase of 6.24%, closing at 28.28 HKD, contributing 4.24 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - The company reported a revenue of 23.942 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.789 billion RMB, up 23.04% [2] - Other notable blue chips included Zhongsheng Holdings, which rose 8.29%, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical, which increased by 4.75% [2] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tencent up 0.94% and Alibaba down 0.25% [3] - AI application stocks performed well, with Zhihu-W rising 23% and Fenbi increasing by nearly 14% [3] - The property management sector was active, with Wanwu Cloud rising 7.19% and Sunac Services increasing by 5.18% [4][5] Earnings Reports - Wanwu Cloud reported a revenue of 18.14 billion RMB, a 3.1% year-on-year increase, and a core net profit of 1.32 billion RMB, up 10.8% [5] - Kancheng Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 1.569 billion RMB, a 23.7% increase, and a net profit of 498 million RMB, up 24.6% [8] - Li Auto announced a revenue of 24.25 billion RMB, a 174% increase, with a gross margin of 14.1% [9] Notable Stock Movements - Dongfang Zhenxuan experienced a significant drop of 20.89%, closing at 34.32 HKD, following rumors regarding its CEO [12] - Gilead Sciences saw a decline of 15.01% after announcing a share placement and a new share subscription at a discount [13]

Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

Market Trends - The market trends from late July to early August closely resemble those from late February to early March, indicating a cyclical pattern in market behavior [3][4] - Both periods experienced a month-long rally followed by significant adjustments and rebounds, with similar volume patterns of "decrease-increase" [4] Risk Signals - The current market exhibits typical "tail behavior," with three major risk signals to watch for: accelerated sector rotation, rising external pressures, and irrational leverage [6][7][9] - Rapid sector rotation is evident, with strong sectors unable to maintain momentum, reflecting a "one-day tour" pattern where funds quickly shift from high-performing sectors to lower-positioned ones [6] - External pressures, particularly from U.S.-China relations, are increasing uncertainty, impacting market momentum [7][8] Leverage and Market Behavior - Leverage funds are increasing their positions despite market pressures, with margin financing balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, the highest since July 2015, indicating potential overheating [9] - The behavior of leverage funds during market adjustments suggests a tendency to amplify volatility, raising concerns about future market corrections [9] Investment Strategy - In the context of a "tail market," the recommended strategy is to reduce positions at highs while preparing for potential rebounds, emphasizing the importance of locking in profits rather than chasing returns [11][13] - The current market dynamics suggest that maintaining a cautious approach may be more valuable than aggressive strategies, especially as market conditions evolve [14][15]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, reaching new highs, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 2.11%, outperforming other major indices such as the CSI A50 and ChiNext, which increased by 0.64% and 0.49% respectively [12][13] - There was a significant reversal in market style, with cyclical stocks rebounding strongly while the previously resilient consumer style lagged behind [12][13] - All market capitalization styles saw gains, with mid-cap and small-cap indices performing notably better than large-cap indices [12][13] - The performance of core assets and leading growth stocks showed divergence, with the "Ning" combination slightly increasing by 0.07% and the "Mao" index rising by 0.89% [12][13] Industry Analysis - The market's upward movement was primarily driven by event-driven thematic trading, with the defense and military industry leading with a 5.93% increase, followed by significant gains in non-ferrous metals and machinery [4][13] - The defense sector's rise was fueled by China Shipbuilding's announcement on August 5 regarding a stock swap merger with China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which sparked expectations of large-scale restructuring among military-listed companies [4][13] - The only sectors that saw declines were pharmaceuticals, computers, retail, and social services [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report emphasizes the importance of both rhythm and direction during the current gap between policy and performance, noting that the recent Central Political Bureau meeting did not indicate large-scale stimulus plans, and the focus will shift more towards demand recovery rather than supply-side reductions [29][30] - The current market rally, which began at the end of June, can be understood as a two-phase structure driven by bank dividends and the transition from "anti-involution" themes, but the potential for further gains may be limited as the appeal of bank dividends diminishes [29][30] - The report suggests a return to growth trading, with individual stock alpha logic taking precedence over industry beta logic, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors such as AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [30]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs but failing to maintain those gains, indicating a need for time and space to digest recent movements [3][4][5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a notable divergence between indices, particularly a stronger Shanghai index compared to weaker Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, reflecting internal market discrepancies [4][20] - Trading volume has decreased, with a total turnover of approximately 1.7 trillion, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for chasing higher prices, which may hinder the ability to initiate a new upward trend [4][20] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as cement, engineering machinery, and hydropower have shown strong rebounds, while AI application sectors have collectively declined, negatively impacting market sentiment [3][19] - The military industry has seen significant gains, with a notable increase in stock prices, supported by government policies and geopolitical tensions that may act as catalysts for further growth [11][12] - The robotics sector has also experienced substantial growth, with a 60% increase in related stocks since early January, although a recent pullback suggests caution is warranted [12] - Precious metals have risen due to factors such as the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions, which have driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [14] - The semiconductor sector remains a focal point for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by government support and rising global demand for AI and high-performance computing [16] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high certainty in performance and reasonable valuations, particularly those benefiting from policy support or industry trends [5][21] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with structural opportunities, such as semiconductors, AI, and healthcare, while being cautious of stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [5][21] - The outlook for the A-share market suggests a "slow bull" trend, with structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock-picking skills and timing [5][21]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations today, with all three major indices slightly declining [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.71 trillion, a decrease of 115.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed a mixed performance with over 2800 stocks declining, while local stocks from Xinjiang surged in the afternoon, with over 10 stocks including Bayi Steel hitting the daily limit [1] - Super water power concept stocks rebounded, with Shanhe Intelligent hitting the daily limit [1] - High-speed rail concept stocks showed strong fluctuations, with Jinying Heavy Industry hitting a 20% limit up [1] - In contrast, AI application stocks collectively fell sharply, with multiple stocks including Dingjie Zhizhi dropping over 10% [1][2] Index Performance - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.38% [3] Trading Metrics - The limit-up performance showed a sealing rate of 68.00%, with 38 stocks hitting the limit and 18 stocks touching the limit [5] - The previous day's limit-up stocks had a performance of 1.39%, with a high opening rate of 58% and a profit rate of 47% [5]