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瑞银:升中国人寿目标价至29港元 上调税后净利润预测
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-20 06:12
Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Life Insurance (02628) has issued a positive profit alert, expecting a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% in after-tax net profit for the first three quarters of this year, reaching between 157 billion to 178 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The after-tax net profit for the third quarter is expected to increase by 75% to 106% year-on-year, primarily driven by substantial growth in investment income and a recovery in insurance service operations [1] - UBS has raised its after-tax net profit forecasts for China Life for 2025 to 2027 by 79%, 23%, and 24% respectively, based on the positive profit alert, expanded asset management scale, and rising interest rates [1] Group 2: New Business Value - The estimated new business value (VNB) for the first three quarters is projected to increase by 36% year-on-year, compared to a 20% growth in the first half of the year, indicating strong growth momentum in the third quarter [1] Group 3: Dividend Expectations - Despite the strong expected performance in after-tax net profit for the year, UBS believes that dividends will not increase at the same rate, as the group's goal is stable dividend growth [1] - Assuming a dividend increase of 10% to 30%, the H-share dividend yield would reach between 3.4% to 4% [1]